Investing based upon Vegas odds of Iran bombing Israel

[skarke]

It has always amazed me at how good the odds makers are in Vegas  at picking event outcomes.  I figure that when the fur flies in the Middle East, the World will plunge into WW III, and take my life savings along for the rde.

So, how about watching the odds on an Iranian or Israeli attack happening, and when the odds show a growing likelihood of such an event, punch out of the market before the mushroom clouds appear on the horizon.

Assuming that the US comes out OK, I figure that this might be my best strategy to correctly "time" the market, and protect my ass....ets.

What do you think?

[skarke]

I spoke with my investment counselor today about my hypothesis, and he, at first, said that my idea was basically naiive.  however, after he thought about it, he said that it was an interesting idea.  The problem is that the bet has to have a "by this date" aspect. Because of this, it is: A Hard to get bets on the event, and B who's making the odds.

I'd be interested in what history shows.

[Buck-Ridge]

I believe Israel will hit Iran first. They will have to to survive and they know it. I'm with you on the Market. It will tank.

[BBF]

If the Israelis do this, what do you suppose the chances are they will get " INCOMING" ?

[skarke]

I believe that Israel is again becoming the Scapegoat for the ills of the Mille East.  What I fear is that WE WILL ATTACK Israel if they attack Iran, and the INCOMING!!! that they hear will be from US sources.

Who'd have ever thunk it.

Bottom line, I'm likely going to punch out around 10,000 DJIA, or upon an increasing odds of war in the Middle East.  Whichever comes first.