Here's part of the article. It states the possibility of the toxin and being a contributing factor. In our area, I believe it is the major factor. Anyway here's what a few had to say about predators, fire ants and the toxin:
"Dr. Nova Silvy of the Department of Wildlife and Fisheries at Texas A & M University argued that the ultimate factor affecting long-term quail numbers is habitat change at regional and national levels, with weather influencing yearly variation in local numbers. This hypothesis does not mean that predators cannot affect individual birds, coveys, or even a local population, but they are not responsible for long-term population decline at the regional or continental scale, nor do they cause large annual population fluctuations.
Dr. Brad Dabbert with the Department of Range, Wildlife, and Fisheries Management at Texas Tech University revealed that only 2 percent of bobwhite chicks in unprotected nests were killed by red imported fire ants (RIFA) in a field experiment his experiment team conducted. They found that survival rate of chicks in areas treated with insecticide was more than double that of chicks from untreated areas. They also found that chick survival rate is related to the density of RIFA as indexed by the number of RIFA captured within thirty minutes in a standardized bait cup placed in quail nests the day after hatch. When 300 or more RIFA are captured in the bait cup one day after chicks hatch, survival rate is zero. Conversely, when fewer than 300 RIFA are captured at the nest, chick survival rate is similar to that of chicks in treated areas. More research needs to be conducted on quail and RIFA interactions. Relationships of many variables such as weather, management practices, region, and quail and fire ant densities should be examined before conclusions are made.
Dr. Neal Wilkins, with the Texas Agricultural Extension Service, presented a program proposing that quail managers be concerned about aflatoxin poisoning. Simply stated, aflatoxin's effect on quail is largely unknown. In Texas, 300 million pounds of corn, the equivalent of two pounds per acre over the entire state, are fed annually to wildlife. He cited studies that demonstrated liver damage in deer after eight weeks on corn with aflatoxin levels of 800 parts per billion (ppb), mortality of mallard ducks consuming peanuts with 110 ppb, and liver damage and decreased immune capacity in turkeys consuming food with aflatoxin at 100 to 400 ppb. Aflatoxin poisoning's effect varies by species, age, concentration, and exposure rate. However, like turkeys and ducks, quail are probably more susceptible to aflatoxins than mammals such as deer. Furthermore, broken or stunted kernels of corn, which quail may be more likely to ingest, may have higher concentrations of aflatoxin.
In Texas, corn with an aflatoxin concentration higher than 20 ppb must have a warning on the label. Corn with concentrations above 100 ppb cannot be sold as deer feed. Dr. Wilkins was involved in a study that found bags of corn without a manufacturer's label were twice as likely to contain more than 100 ppb than labeled corn. There is no documentation of aflatoxin poisoning's reducing quail populations. However, a manager should feed only corn that has been tested and labeled to contain aflatoxin levels lower than 20 ppb."
