NOAA 2012 Drought Forecast

[jvs]

Below is a 2012 drought forecast, courtesy of NOAA.





Latest Seasonal Assessment -[/size] [/size]The drought outlook for January 19 - April 30, 2012 was based upon climate anomalies associated with La Niņa, short to medium range forecasts, climatology, and initial conditions. Frequent periods of precipitation somewhat improved drought conditions across the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast during the past two months. However, a return of dry weather and the ongoing La Niņa favor persistence across most of eastern New Mexico, Texas, southern Kansas, western Oklahoma, and Texas. Farther east, persistence or development can be expected across much of the lower Southeast, with the highest forecast confidence in Florida. Some improvement is possible along the northern drought boundary in the South with short and medium-term heavy precipitation expected, plus favorable odds of above-normal FMA precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Great Lakes region. The lack of early winter precipitation, unexpected in the Northwest during a La Niņa, resulted in moderate drought development and expansion of abnormal dryness across eastern Washington, southern Idaho, most of Oregon, California, and Nevada, and northern Utah. However, short and medium-term forecasts and the 3-month (FMA'12) precipitation outlook favor improvement in northern sections (Washington, Oregon, northern California), with some improvement in northeastern California and northwestern Nevada. Despite the early winter snowfall in Arizona and New Mexico, the odds for drought persistence and development across the Southwest are elevated. Therefore, persistence or development is forecasted across central and southern California, Arizona, southern sections of Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, and western New Mexico. A relatively dry winter climatology and equal odd chances (1- and 3-month outlooks) elevates the chances for persistence across the western Corn Belt and upper Midwest. An exception was near Lake Superior (Some Improvement) where the 3-month precipitation outlook slightly favored above-normal precipitation. In Hawaii, a La Niņa event is normally considered to bring enhanced rainfall to the islands. However, a new study comparing Hawaiian rainfall during recent La Niņas, El Niņos, and Neutral conditions indicated minimal odds for improvement on the leeward sides during La Niņas, so only some improvement was forecast for the Hawaiian leeward sides. Improvement was kept for Oahu's windward side.
[/size]Forecaster: D. Miskus
[/size]Next Outlook issued: February 2, 2012 at 8:30 AM EDT

[charles p]

Map legend states the forcast is through April 30th of 2012.  Maybe we can get more rain.

[jvs]

I will try to keep this updated as time goes by.  This is the current map for this time period and does not include rainfall which may be presently occuring.  Only what areas have been in drought or may be slipping into or out of one.


Looks like NOAA updates it quarterly.  I'll check again in mid April.

[longwinters]

From what I've heard Lake Superior is way down as is Little Bay De Noc.  As of today we only have about 6" of snow.  I can't imagine why we are not in the drought areas. 
 
Long

[keith44]

I am glad I am in the Ohio Valley region, but we've seen a good wet winter and spring transition into hot dry summer and fall in recent years too. 

[bilmac]

Nice thing about living in a desert is that we don't pay much attention to droughts. We have just left a pretty bad one and things are getting back to normal. But even in the worst of it the snow fell on the mountains and came down the ditches for me to use.