NRA Bush Endorsement Not Certain
Dave Eberhart, NewsMax.com
Tuesday, Aug. 10, 2004
Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan received the first presidential endorsement by the National Rifle Association, no Republican candidate has lost an election with the endorsement and no Republican has won without it.
In the run-up to November 2004, however, the powerful gun lobby continues to hang-fire on putting its formal seal of approval on George W. Bush.
Insider Larry Pratt, executive director of Gun Owners of America, when asked by The Hill when an endorsement by the NRA might be forthcoming, said, "I think September 14 would make a good date."
The assault weapons ban renewal has become a litmus test issue for the NRA, the nation's largest gun rights organization.
But sources close to the NRA's leadership tell NewsMax that all is not rosy between the gun group and the Bush White House.
The main bone of resentment is over President Bush's signature on the McCain-Feingold law, which the NRA believes may have effectively neutered their political muscle for years to come.
If the president supports the assault gun ban renewal, it could be the straw that breaks the proverbial camel's back.
Unless Congress acts, the 10-year-old federal assault gun ban will expire Sept. 13.
Although a push from President Bush would get a renewal before lawmakers a majority of whom would probably approve it the president, who supports the renewal of the ban, has been thunderously silent.
And the clock is running down. Congress will return from its summer district work period on Sept. 7 and will be in session for only four workdays before the sunset date arrives.
In the meantime, if the president is being coy on the volatile issue, so is the NRA.
Chris Cox, the NRAs chief lobbyist, told The Hill that the group usually does not endorse presidential candidates until the fall and will not be changing its timetable this year.
"Clearly, there are some issues that are still on the table," Cox acknowledged in a tacit reference to the assault weapons ban renewal, but he steadfastly declined to indicate when the NRA will make an endorsement decision, saying, "I'm not going to broadcast our strategy months before the election."
Although NewsMax has asked for further comment on the if and when of the endorsement, none has been forthcoming as of this writing.
In the meantime, Bush remains uncomfortably wedged between the classic rock and a hard place.
A survey released last month by the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center found that 71 percent of those surveyed and 64 percent of gun owners wanted Congress to extend the ban.
On the other hand, if Bush calls on the GOP-controlled Congress to act, it may cost him the endorsement of the NRA.
For his part, John Kerry certainly hasn't given Bush a pass on his inaction: "We all know Bush and Cheney have broken their promises on Iraq and the economy," he said recently, "but most voters don't know that they are standing against major police organizations and breaking their promise to renew the assault weapons ban which helps keep military-style assault weapons out of the hands of criminals and terrorists."
Coyness aside, the NRA is a force to be reckoned with.
Recently on "The Charlie Rose Show," Bill Clinton explained why Al Gore lost in the former president's home state: "I'll tell you exactly what happened in Arkansas. ... The NRA beat him in Arkansas."
Guns played a major role in securing Bush victories not only in Arkansas but also in West Virginia, Tennessee, Florida and New Hampshire.
At last year's NRA convention, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush told members, "If it were not for your active involvement, it is safe to say that my brother would not have been elected president."
Good Vibes From LaPierre
In the August issue of the NRA magazine America's 1st Freedom, NRA executive vice president Wayne LaPierre had effusive praise for incumbent Bush, telling his readership that the president stood squarely in the shoes of Ronald Reagan, the AR-15 automatic rifle owner who on May 9, 1983, was named an Honorary Life Member, a title bestowed on just 19 individuals in the 133-year history of the NRA:
"The words I use to describe Mr. Reagan equally describe President Bush. ... In his famous 'Rendezvous with Destiny' speech of 40 years ago, Ronald Reagan said, 'I think it's time we ask ourselves if we still know the freedoms that are intended for us by the Founding Fathers.' Americans must know, because Reagan said, 'If we lost freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on earth.'"
LaPierre poignantly added, "NRA members know the truth of those words so does President George W. Bush."
In May, LaPierre had fighting words for John Kerry: "It's not a stretch to say that the worst thing that could happen to the Second Amendment is for John Kerry to be elected president."
LaPierre's recent rhetoric is a good omen for President Bush, but any formal endorsement to borrow the words of George Tenet may not be a "slam dunk."
The NRA stood neutral in 1992 and 1996, not endorsing George H.W. Bush in his re-election bid and shunning Republican nominee Bob Dole's presidential bid because of his iffy posture on the assault weapons ban.
The NRA did, however, endorse George W. Bush in 2000. Perhaps more importantly, the NRA poured its formidable resources, including $16.8 million on federal campaigns into the election. Working in tandem were a phone-banking effort and a targeted ad campaign to hype the chilling message "Al Gore wants to take away your guns."
The Money Clock Ticking
But in the new age of McCain-Feingold, when campaign finance laws ban the use of corporate and labor union money for ads targeting a particular candidate within 30 days of an election, the potential clout of the NRA juggernaut on Election 2004 may be blunted severely.
Long recognizing the writing on the wall, in April the NRA launched an Internet-based news company. The $1 million investment will help get its message to voters without violating new federal campaign finance rules that limit soft money contributions to candidates close to Election Day.
In the offing: an "NRA news" company that will not only produce a daily talk show for the Internet but also buy a radio station and seek a television deal to spread its gun-rights message nationwide.
But even if the news company were already in full throat and passed whatever legal hurdles that will inevitable emerge, it seems too little and too late for Election 2004.
A visit to NRANews.com these days reveals the flagship Web site of NRA News as hardly a vociferous platform for George W. Bush. Links to pro-Bush articles are provided in a "breaking news" category.
As the stalemate continues, the NRA has been more or less contenting itself with its Bush-neutral campaign to educate the American electorate that there is no rational reason to restrict firearms as "assault weapons."
On its NRAILA.org Web site, for instance, the gun group argues: "State and local law enforcement agency reports have always shown that firearms arbitrarily defined as 'assault weapons' have never been used to commit more than a minute fraction of violent crimes. Even Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., the author of the federal 'assault weapons' law, admitted this fact before the law was passed, and a study mandated by Congress determined: 'At best, the assault weapons ban can have a limited effect on total gun murders, because the banned weapons were never involved in more than a modest fraction of all gun murders.'"
The other prong of the NRA attack: "[W]e must remain extremely vigilant against any attempt by the anti-gunners to reauthorize this legislation [assault weapon ban renewal]. Already, Representative Michael Castle, R-Del., and Senator Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., have introduced bills to do just that."
Feinstein recently claimed: "I really believe passionately in this. I'm not going to give up. It's only the sheer power of the gun lobby that stands in the way."
For the administration's part, the last obvious public opportunity to break the impasse one way or another occurred in April at the NRA national convention.
Vice President Dick Cheney spoke for about 25 minutes, after which he was dutifully hailed by a standing ovation punctuated by chants of "Four more years!"
But Cheney said not one word about the federal assault weapons ban.
Silence begets silence.
