Does the Hodgdon data seem a little hot to anyone else besides me?
No. The 45-70 loads for the Marlin 1895 are within its safe operating pressure of 40,000 CUP.
There's the riddle. Marlin sells the 1895 in 450 Marlin, a caliber with a 40,000 CUP SAAMI-certified pressure rating. Therefore, the 1895 action mut be capable of handling the pressure, right?
OTOH, Marlin cannot recommend or even condone loading the 45-70 past 28,000 CUP--they're a SAAMI member and they have to abide SAAMI guidelines.
Lots of reloading manuals list hotter-than-SAAMI loads for 45-70, but say that they're intended for Ruger #1/Siamese Mauser ONLY. AFAIK, Hogdon is the only source of published reloading data that recommends this pressure level for the Marlin 1895 in 45-70.
If Hogdon's loads seem hot to you, that's because they are hotter than anything anyone else is willing to publish. Whether or not they are
too hot for the action is a subject of never-ending debate.
Marlin, SAAMI and the bullet manufacturers are all toeing the company line--no loads over SAAMI pressures for the Marlin 1895. Hogdon is saying to he-double hockey sticks with Marlin & SAAMI, we know the action will withstand 450 Marlin pressures so we're using that pressure level for our 45-70 loads. Of course, Marlin also has an interest in the success of the 450 Marlin...
I am sure that Hogdon's data is safe. Yes, it is hotter than everyone else's data, but it's still safe.