Author Topic: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend  (Read 680 times)

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Offline Siskiyou

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Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« on: December 31, 2007, 11:00:19 AM »
Historical Snow Storm Predicted for Sierra-Nevada Range

Public Information Statement
1100 am PST sun Dec 30 2007

A snowstorm of potentially historic proportions will affect the
Sierra Nevada during the upcoming weekend. Snowfall totals with this
snowstorm could rival snowfall amounts that were seen in some of the
most devastating snowstorms of the past 50 years.

Research done on heavy snowfall in the Sierra has identified the
most significant snowstorms to affect the range.  Listed below are
the top fifteen snowstorms that deposited the largest snowfall
amounts on the entire Sierra during the past half century.  Snowfall
with this weekend's snowstorm could equal amounts seen among the top
five all-time Sierra snowstorms.

...................................................................

Greatest Sierra snowstorms (1949-50 through 2004-2005) with storm
total snowfall amounts (in.) At various locations


Can - canyon dam (plumas county)
boc - Boca (nevada county)
css - central Sierra snow lab (nevada-Placer county)
tah - Tahoe City (placer county)
grg - Grant Grove (tulare county)


                                     can    boc    css    tah    grg
   1.  Jan. 10-17, 1952             108.0   68.0  141.0  149.0   68.0
   2.  Mar. 28-Apr. 1, 1982          26.0   47.0  125.5   59.0   63.0
   3.  Mar. 29-Apr. 4, 1958          46.5   48.0    mm    98.5   69.0
   4.  Dec. 28, 1992-Jan. 2, 1993    74.0   47.0   76.6   57.5    mm
   5.  Mar. 21-24, 1995              32.0   26.0  100.6   74.0   59.0

   6.  Mar. 10-14, 1967              60.0   59.0   74.8   92.0   38.5
   7.  Jan. 31-Feb. 4, 1975          62.0   38.0   65.0   42.0   25.0
   8.  Dec. 27-31, 1964              46.0   42.0   87.2   77.0   26.0
   9.  Feb. 23-26, 1969              35.0   28.0   74.0   37.0   63.0
  10.  Jan. 27-30, 1981              24.0   24.0   72.0   40.0   48.0

  11.  Dec. 21-23, 1996              23.0   65.0   53.6   73.0   25.0
  12.  Dec. 29, 2004-Jan. 2, 2005    48.0   49.5   89.7   64.0    mm
  13.  Feb. 9-12, 1959               43.0   31.0    mm    43.0   64.0
  14.  Feb. 16-18, 1990              30.0   49.0   73.0   46.0   24.0
  15.  Jan. 20-23, 1997              34.0   18.0   73.4   44.0   35.0


Mm - missing data

I received the above information in an e-mail this morning.


There are a number of impacts from a big storm on the Sierra’s, first is the difficulty of traveling, second is the avalanche danger will be high for sometime.  Flood control issues on the Nevada and California sides of the Sierra-Nevada Range will be of concern.  Historically a warming trend or a warm storm will come in a week later and generate a rapid snowmelt causing flooding in the Reno, Carson City areas. 

Reservoirs in the Sierra’s are low after a two-years drought and they can use the run-off to recover.  A number of reservoirs in addition to Lake Tahoe provide water to Reno by the Truckee River drainage. 

Reservoirs in California have lot of space in them depending on the duration of the run off from the storm. 

I guess the key word in the forecast is POTENTIALLY.

One of the saddest days in my career was responding to an avalanche that had buried people.  One person was killed, a young boy, once the probers located him and he was dug out the EMTs did there best but it was too late.  It was after the storm and the sun had come out heating the steep, snow-covered hillside.  A slight amount of water from the snow trickled under the deep snow, lubricating it, and it slid down the hill catching people below.

Hopefully we will get a good snowfall and everybody will be safe, and the bonus will be that we will have enough water to flush the toilet come August.


There is a learning process to effectively using a gps.  Do not throw your compass and map away!

Boycott: San Francisco, L.A., Oakland, and City of Sacramento, CA.

Offline gypsyman

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2007, 09:31:20 PM »
Think Al Gore knows about this??  gypsyman
We keep trying peace, it usually doesn't work!!Remember(12/7/41)(9/11/01) gypsyman

Offline Dee

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2008, 02:46:52 AM »
Yep! No doubt about it! Global warming!
You may all go to hell, I will go to Texas. Davy Crockett

Offline oldandslow

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2008, 06:46:40 AM »
Got to be global warming. It was a whole 12 degrees here in the sunny southwest this morning.

Offline Siskiyou

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2008, 07:36:21 AM »
The storm may not have been a record breaker in all locations but there are still people without power,  The Truckee River which flows out of the Eastside of California into Nevada put a bunch of water into Fernley, NV.  Sounds like a irrigation canal that takes water from the Truckee River gave way.  Historically the Truckee River feeds Pyramid Lake.

Most of the damage in N. California was related to winds.  The other morning I was on this computer when the lights started flecking.  I shut down and went to the laptop computer.  Even with a surge protector I did not want to take a chance.  A fair size pine tree had come down and the top caught the power lines.

The Rockies caught a good snow fall and a lot of avalanche control work is going on there and in the Sierra Nevada Range in California and Nevada.  Most avalanche control is done along highways and ski areas.  Meaning that back country travel can be risky right now.  Snowmobiles are noted for trigger avalanches.

The following is copied from a message sent out by the weather folks:

Storm Recap

Well, that was something.  Start by saying that it just stopped snowing
at Blue Canyon at 21Z (1pm local time Monday 1/7), after nearly 3 days.
In fact, other than a break from about 6-8pm last night, it snowed at
Blue Canyon ever since the changeover from rain to snow occurred on
Friday at 2:35pm.  Prior to that, it was a nasty, rainy, and windy.
News live shots were criticizing the late arrival of snow, wondering why
it was raining.  That snow level just took a little longer to drop, but
it did!  The snow started about an hour after a 63mph wind gust took out
NOAA/HMT's research radar deployed at Blue Canyon at about 1:30pm.  Then
it snowed for basically 3 days straight.

Around 11am Friday, when the peak of the storm was blasting through
Sacramento, taking the power with it, there were at least 20 different
kinds of advisories out across the state.  These ran the gamut from High
Wind Warning, to Blizzard Warning, to Flash Flood Watch, to Avalanche
Warning!  And each of those 20 types covered multiple areas and zones.
No area of the state was exempt.

Two systems impact CA this week; more for Northern and Central
California, than southern.  One is on Tuesday, the other Thursday, with
north coast onset a half a day or so earlier.  The 80/50 cutoff is a
reasonable approximation for the second system, however it was has more
moisture available than the first.  We'll see what that brings.  For
now, forecast rain amounts Tuesday are for 1-2" across the northern half
of the state higher elevations, a quarter to three quarters of an inch
valley and coastal locations.  Gusty north coast winds are likely
tomorrow, as well as coastal mountain regions all the way to SFO.  The
snow level will be between 4,000' and 5,000'.

Okay, here are the boosts we've had the last few days.  Remember,
another couple waves slide across this week, so amounts will continue to
climb.  At least until the ridge builds in this weekend.  Then we may be
left alone for quite a while.

(I wish I could include tables, or even tabs that worked properly.  But
this is a plain text email, sent through a rather clunky mail server.
When I make nice lists, it loses the carriage returns.  And if I create
tabs, they get off whack, and I can't check during the conversion.  So,
bear with me. )

Before the storm, the 8 Station index was at 12.0"; 66% of average for
the season.  As of this morning, it's up to 89% of average, with 17.6".
This was a better 'snow' storm than 8 station precip index would
indicate, however.  With the most impressive orographics over the
Southern Sierra, our snowpack saw a great surge.  At the first of the
year (near Jan. 2), our statewide percent of normal for snow water
equivalence was 60% by sensor, and 60% as course-measured at Phillips on
Highway 50, near Sierra at Tahoe.  This morning, we've about doubled
those numbers.  Here's the breakdown for percent of average to date
across the Sierra:

                                                 Jan. 1 (Inches eq.)
             Jan. 7
(Inches eq.)

Northern                                   64%         7"
             112%
13"
Central                                                53%         6"
                         101%
13"
Southern                                   69%         6"
             131%
12"

Statewide                                  60%         6"
             111%
13"

As for individual locations, here are some storm-total snow figures
gathered from the National Weather Service, and Steve Johnson:  Kirkwood
Ski resort; 8-11'.  Heavenly; 5.5-8'.  Horse Meadow, Tuolumne Watershed;
13'.  Blackcap Basin, Kings; 8'.  So the forecasted one-week amounts of
10 feet or more of snow are very likely to come to pass.  Some places
have that already, and our week is not up until Thursday.

Rainfall amounts were very high in some places.   Storm total for
Downtown Sacramento (since Thursday night) was 3.12".  Peak 6-hour rain
occurred at San Marcos Pass, with 6.10" from 00 - 06Z the 5th.  That
gauge in Santa Barbara Co. had 9" on Saturday, and stands at 10.95" for
the month.  Bates has a January total of 5.92" in Santa Barbara Co.
Opids Camp in L.A. Co. came in with 12.56" for this storm period.
Highest 24-hour Sierra total at a quick glance showed Poison Ridge, in
Madera Co., el. 6,900' with 6.23" ending Saturday at 4am.  Monthly
precip totals (which are basically this 'storm' because not much
happened the first 3 days of the month) include:

Oak Bottom, Shasta Co., el. 1,326'                                 10.02"
Drum Power House, Nevada Co. 3,400'                     6.42"
Stateline 6,235'
3.60"
Mammoth Pass, Alpine Co., el. 9,500'                          8.88"
Milo, Tulare Co., el. 2,002'
3.46"

A one-month statewide precip graph shows the crest and lee side of the
Sierra seeing upwards of 400% of normal precip since Dec. 8.  Most of CA
has gotten about 150-200% of normal.  For this great graphic, please go
to the Western Region Climate Center at:
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/anom/cal_anom.html
Scroll down to precip, and take your pick of variable and time frame.

Hydrologic impacts of the several days of wet weather include monitor
stage being reached at Arcata along the Mad River, Tisdale Weir overflow
to 1.5' on Saturday and Sunday (none occurred at Colusa), and Rio Vista
made it to monitor stage twice due to the strong low, and gusty winds.
Additional north coast hydrologic numbers and impacts have been
summarized by Sherry Constancio of the Eureka Flood Center (thanks!)

-          Eel River at Fernbridge crested at 18.76, just below the
20-ft flood stage...at the 20-ft flood stage the western half of the Eel
River Delta may be completely flooded, including the northwest areas of
the community of Loleta

-          Van Duzen at Grizzly Creek peaked just under Monitor Stage
(13-ft) at 12.54.

-          In Mendocino County, the Navarro River near Navarro peaked at
29.54-ft, well over its 23-foot Flood Stage.  According to the NWS, some
homes are flooded at 30-feet so this was a narrow margin and was closely
monitored.

-          Numerous power outages, including the entire city of Crescent
City

-          US Highway 101 between Crescent City and Klamath was closed
briefly early Friday morning due to a downed tree

-          State Route 36 was closed for awhile near Carlotta due to
flooding

-          Avenue of the Giants (along Hwy 101) was briefly closed due
to a slide

-          Snow levels dropped to 2000-ft and several inches covered
Highway 299

-          Localized flooding in lowland areas and the temporary closure
of several county roads


May not post again till the 16th or 23rd of this month, due to several
speaking and project obligations.

(EL)


_______________________________________________
Weather_and_Climate_News

There is a learning process to effectively using a gps.  Do not throw your compass and map away!

Boycott: San Francisco, L.A., Oakland, and City of Sacramento, CA.

Offline Will Bison

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2008, 10:11:14 PM »
Yea, nice little storm. My trusty tape measure says 31 inches here at my "Mountain Estate", elevation 6,100 feet. So now we are at "average" for the year. Surprisingly the wind at my place only hit 57 peak gust. Now if we can get about six more good storms like this last one we might catch up for the past several dry Winters.

Oh one last thing. Please Al, turn the Global Warming off, please.

Offline Siskiyou

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2008, 08:28:58 AM »
  Will Bison:
The wind should have shut down the gliders over at Minden airport?    I know they are use to wind in Western Nevada but it had to be rough on light aircraft.

Looks like the Drought Monitor has you going from extreme drought to server drought. 

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

What's the flow in the Carson River looking like after the storm?


There is a learning process to effectively using a gps.  Do not throw your compass and map away!

Boycott: San Francisco, L.A., Oakland, and City of Sacramento, CA.

Offline Will Bison

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2008, 09:18:29 AM »
Hi Siskiyou

The Carson River was bone dry from Dayton to Lahonton all Summer. It has a little flow now. Most of the water is locked in snow pack now.

I'm heading to Fernley today for a look see at the flood. My Son lives in Wadsworth. As expected the lawsuits are flying after the flood.

The good news is the County emergency plans worked very well and the Gov and Pres got FEMA involved almost as soon as the levee broke. Local folks have jumped up without being asked and are taking a proactive approach to the situation. Seems like teamwork is alive and well.

Bill

Offline skifastchad

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2008, 11:21:23 AM »
I heard on fox news (for what that's worth) that the Fernley levy broke in an area infested with prairie dogs.  They said it was in a no-hunting area, and the gopher holes weakened the levy and created the starting leaks.

Can any locals confirm this?

Offline Will Bison

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2008, 07:24:56 PM »
My guess is that a canal/levee built in 1907 out of dirt has a lot to do with it. We don't have any P Dogs here. The levee is about 90 feet thick at the base and 70 feet at the top. The canal (the water) is perhaps 40 wide. No causal factor has been divulged yet.

From what I saw today most of the homes are repairable. I think only a dozen or so suffered serious structural damage. But talk about mud, WOW!

I had lunch in Fernley today and spoke with several locals. Morale seems to be high under the circumstances and all those displaced are warm and dry.

The flood happened at 0430, imagine being in bed asleep and suddenly covered with water that was probably just above freezing. BRRRRRRR

A lot of us got blankets and clothing sent right away. Most of the folks had nothing dry to wear or wrap up in. I took one of my extra trucks over today and dropped it off. Lots of people lost cars.

Bill

Offline weasel

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2008, 09:10:55 PM »
Have a wheelchair-bound friend in Fernley, naturally we were pretty worried about him, his family had 2" in the house. He was out helping neighbors with worse problems. Go figure. If I remember right there are few, if any, prairie dogs there, lots of Richardson ground squirrels.

Pretty nice neighbor, that Will Bison.

Offline Siskiyou

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Re: Record Snow Storm Predict for this weekend
« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2008, 09:45:32 AM »


My wife has a friend from work that moved over to Fernley a few years back.  We have not heard a status on them.

If I recall correctly the canal diverts water out of the Truckee River between Sparks and Fernley and the canal flows on the Southside of Fernley and eventually dumps into Lahontan Reservoir.  I heard they shut of the water diversion and allowed it to flow to its historical destination in Pyramid Lake.  It would be interesting to know what the rate of flow was at the time of the break.  The break may not have had anything to do with the storm in the mountains.

I have to admit that when I made my original post I thought about possible flooding along the Truckee River in beautiful down town Reno, but had no thought of the Truckee Canal breaking and flooding Fernley.  Over the years I have stopped at the little truck stop and casino on the North Eastside of town for fuel, food, and a break.  Nothing to write home about but fair service and the traffic pattern was simple.

I suspect somebody will sue the State of California for allowing water to flow out of Lake Tahoe into the Truckee River.
There is a learning process to effectively using a gps.  Do not throw your compass and map away!

Boycott: San Francisco, L.A., Oakland, and City of Sacramento, CA.