Author Topic: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?  (Read 2792 times)

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Offline Blackhawker

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2012, 12:34:50 AM »
It appears that we all have some good answers and good points of views on various bug out plans but I guess I'm thinking differently of what one might call a MAJOR crisis rather than one that is somewhat localized and lasts only a few days or a week or so.  Perhaps it would be best to define what we are referring to as a MAJOR crisis before describing our opinions.
For example, what one would do in a major crisis having to do with a pandemic disease outbreak is much different than what one might do if a major earthquake broke open a nuclear power plant and shut down all of the power in a large urban area and poses a threat of rad contamination.  On another hand, one might do something completely different if the crisis had to do with riots etc.  Lets face it, the LA riots were very different from say the sunami incident in Japan.  In an LA riot type situation, you'd better get your guns quick.  In the Japan type of incident, you'd better run for the hills with your friends and neighbors.  Both are major crisises, but in one case it's more ever man for himself, while in the other situation you'll probably find people working together in order to stay alive.
For me, I don't see natural disasters as something that one might have to "bug out" from.  In those situation there is aid etc and it will come from areas uneffected by the weather, quake or other natural source.  With crazed people rioting or disease pandemics, this is more of a person to person issue and one might have to hunker down and keep clear of other people.

Offline teamnelson

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2012, 01:25:52 AM »
The issue still remains even in a major event that most folks will not be in their place of long or near term safety at the outset, and will have to get there first to either hunker down or simply resupply and keep on moving. Preparedness planning is way less than which gear to pack and more about risk analysis; I tend to think in algorithms: if-then-else. In the Marines we call this Orient, Observe, Decide, Act, and it's a loop. The person who can maintain the fastest loop wins, it's all mental.

Orient: I'm at work, 17 miles from home where wife and 2 kids are, it's Friday morning.
Observe: Power goes out.
Decide: don't know if it's a breaker, a transformer, backhoe fade, or a nuclear attack. Need more info.
Act: go back to Observe.

If you've already analyzed the what-ifs ahead of time, each contingency in the Decide list already has a course of action ready to go which includes gear, and this gets really fluid and your able to stay calm. Watch Act of Valor when they've recovered the agent and are under fire, they move through 3 failed courses of action, and modify the 4th on the fly. Getting home in a crisis will require the same mental process.
held fast

Offline SHOOTALL

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2012, 02:35:12 AM »
I'm glad not to have to much experince in such situations . What I have seen is roits in my city , I stayed out of them for the most part. That said it cut off travel to some places and caused longer routes to others. Also on a hunting trip to Canada about 30 min after crossing into Canada my wife called to see if we had crossed the border as it was being closed. There was little danger of being in Canada so it wasn't bad but the thought that getting back into the USA later than planned did make us realize how different travel could be , did I mention we crossed a few days after 9/11. We need to consider what could happen and keep in mind it won't be like it was before the event took place. The bridge you were going to use may be closed, the road blocked, the area you were trying to get to gone . It is alway best to have a second or third place for you to meet loved ones or such make sure dates and times are agreeded to as to when to meed or abandion the site. No need trying for a site you can't make in time best to go for the next. Also out of state contacts are good. Also a code you can leave for others like the hobo codes . Alot of this sounds silly but it could be important if things go bad. I had two guys that worked for me . They were from Africa . They had been seperated from their mother 14 years before they worked for me. The had come to the USA with help from the Catholic Church. The church got them ducated , established and jobs. They were informed their parents were dead years before. While working here they found out their mother was alive and they went to see her in Africa. So we may be seperated for years from our family. And another thing if the USA isn't around to do good who will ?
If ya can see it ya can hit it !

Offline Couger

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #33 on: March 12, 2012, 05:05:14 AM »
They make some really cheap and really simple units now. I would get a backtracker 5 for around a hundred bucks and learn to use it and preprogram it.  If it works when you need it great. If it doesn't you haven't invested much.

Very good suggestion (if I get a GPS).  I think $100 would be realistic and quite reasonable for such an item.

Offline Couger

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #34 on: March 12, 2012, 05:15:55 AM »
Clearly water is your obsticle.
My guess is your disaster would be the ground shaking, the waters flooding, or a fire that is out of control.
Where ever your work is I would look to find a marina near by.
Take sailing lessons and figure out what boat you would Borrow (steal) to get home.
In a bug home bag I would keep comfortable broken in boots and wool socks.
Water and some food. 
Fire starter or one of the small folding stoves that use the solid fuel tabs.
A set of bolt cutters (getting a boat may require cutting a lock)
A hand held GPS in a water proof bag with spare batteries.
I would keep a fire arm, but that is me.  Someone may see you on the road with a back pack, water and other supplies and you may be willing to share but they may not be willing to share your supplies and you may need a weapon to protect your self.  After all your goal is to get home and there may be some unsavory things you will have to do to get there.
A pocket knife and or a multi tool (leather man type thing)
Rain gear (jacket, pants, and hat), and a wool blanket In one of the 2.5 gallon zip lock bags.
You may want ot eliminate 1 liter of water for a pocket filter and maybe some water tabs.
Small first aid kit.

Water is not really my biggest obstacle, but rather our weird geography and distances (its hard to explain without a map or showing you in person).  A lot of good suggesttions WoodDuck, but I'm not a sailor nor boater!
 
I have NOT really considered how to 'get' a boat in an emergency because I don't know where the best place to land it would be!  And then abandone it!
 
We have a lot of rocky cliffs on my island and rugged terrain to negotiate if not on roads or regular access, so unless a boater already had a marina or pier to go to, in my case its easier to drive, ride or walk.  And if forced to walk, I'd get off the asphalt to avoid THUGS and authorities, unless the emergency hadn't panicked everyone!  But thats one of those things we won't know until it actually happened.
 
By the way, when I say we have a lot of rocky cliffs terrain and (some) beaches, the tsunami that hit Japan last year would have had to have been a couple hundred feet higher to affect 98+ percent of the residents here.

Offline Couger

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #35 on: March 12, 2012, 05:20:53 AM »
Where I live I wouldn't feel the need to have a gun. If I wasn't so lucky, I would have one that was concealable.

I'd encourage not to give that equipment! (or anyone else).  I like 9mm's in leu of .380's, but I'd have at least a LCP or Kel-tec if not a J-frame.   Even a mousegun hidden in your crotch or under your belt buckle could be a lifesaver!  (check out the North Amaerican Mini-Master or American Derringer)

Offline Alan R McDaniel Jr

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #36 on: March 12, 2012, 04:41:49 PM »
Proper footwear (boots and socks, lots of socks)
Proper clothing (weather/seasonal dependent)
Proper protection (In a crisis it's going to be whatever you've got)
Water/food (eat/drink as you go)
pack (minimal, what you need right now)


I'm making the assumption that a crisis has occurred and a person is trying to get to their home or safe house.


Being able to travel light and travel on a sustained basis is key. 


Alan


Offline Couger

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #37 on: March 12, 2012, 09:43:28 PM »
Quote from: Alan R McDaniel Jr
Proper footwear (boots and socks, lots of socks)
Proper clothing (weather/seasonal dependent)
Proper protection (In a crisis it's going to be whatever you've got)
Water/food (eat/drink as you go)
pack (minimal, what you need right now)

I'm making the assumption that a crisis has occurred and a person is trying to get to their home or safe house.

Being able to travel light and travel on a sustained basis is key.  Alan 

Where I live sometimes we have mud all year around!  Last couple of summer's have been brief and never really got warm enough to grow a good garden.
 
I could see having rubber boots (knee high) vs Danners I prefer.  Also along with wool pants or hunting coveralls in olive or mar-pat camo, I think a dark navy blue windbreaker would be a good item for "reverse" camoflauge if huffing it on asphalt (looking) for a ride was okay afterall.  The blue windbreaker might look a bit more 'normal' than cami's, but VERY lightweight that could be removed and stored really quick.
 
Several years ago I saw (somewhere) an extremely lightweight set of pants and top in traditional camo, that a person could instantly put on over anything they were wearing to instantly go turkey hunting! 
 
These garments were slip-on with elastic cuffs and waist.  Could compact smaller than a baseball!  Wish i could find them again.  Also a face net would be good to instantly cover a bright white face that can stand out like a light.  ;)
 
 

Offline bilmac

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #38 on: March 13, 2012, 01:26:32 PM »
Couger  You might look at ski clothes for the over pants. I think those folks use them. I have a few pairs and they are nice to add some protection to your leggs without stripping down and putting on long handles. You can get types that have zippers on the sides so you don't even have to take your boots off to put them on.
They are compact and I try to keep a pair in all my survival kits.

Offline teamnelson

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #39 on: March 13, 2012, 01:47:45 PM »
Couger, you may check out Frog Togs. Lightweight, waterproof, very small compression and available in a bunch of colors and camo. They sell it at the BassPro near my house, so I'm guessing they'd have it out your way. For white face, I recommend a shamagh of a subdued pattern. I have one in my pack all the time, very versatile - towel, blanket, table cloth, sling, balaclava, protect your face from dust or smoke. Also breaks up man-shape in silhouette at dusk and dawn.

To the topic, my son drives about 30 miles each way to college on Fridays, and I've been challenging him to pick a different route home each time until he feels confident that if there's an accident, one of the bridges are backed up, or just plain slow, he's actually driven all the routes he might have to take. I'm thinking of suggesting that he also pay attention to the neighborhoods he passes through - there are some he'd not want to pass through in a real crisis, and there are others that would probably be empty. Wealthy neighborhoods will most likely be less trafficked than shopping areas or less to do neighborhoods - at least it seems that way when there's a flood or hurricane.


held fast

Offline Couger

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #40 on: March 13, 2012, 07:21:03 PM »
Quote from: bilmac
Couger  You might look at ski clothes for the over pants. I think those folks use them. I have a few pairs and they are nice to add some protection to your leggs without stripping down and putting on long handles. You can get types that have zippers on the sides so you don't even have to take your boots off to put them on.
They are compact and I try to keep a pair in all my survival kits. 

Its been awhile since I used to alpine ski, bibs weren't subdued earth tones but usually bright colors.  They are well insulated however (and something to think about).
 
Traveling (regardless of methed), Skagit Valley has a huge amount of farmland west of I-5, but everything funnels down to the one state road that runs east-west.  (Skagit V. raises many things, but also a tremendous amount of flowers like daffodils, Iris(?), and tullips!  Netherlands is a huge customer of WA tullip growers, true story  ;D  ).  But finding alternate pathways through the 'maze'  is indeed a good idea;)
 
Frog Togs?  We do not have Bass Pro in Woorsheengton, but we do have a Cabelas.  Thanks!  Will check both sites and the whole Net!  8)

Offline SHOOTALL

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #41 on: March 14, 2012, 02:07:50 AM »
There are also several brands of packable rain suits on the market .
If ya can see it ya can hit it !

Offline mcwoodduck

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #42 on: March 14, 2012, 12:06:07 PM »
Clearly water is your obsticle.
My guess is your disaster would be the ground shaking, the waters flooding, or a fire that is out of control.
Where ever your work is I would look to find a marina near by.
Take sailing lessons and figure out what boat you would Borrow (steal) to get home.
In a bug home bag I would keep comfortable broken in boots and wool socks.
Water and some food. 
Fire starter or one of the small folding stoves that use the solid fuel tabs.
A set of bolt cutters (getting a boat may require cutting a lock)
A hand held GPS in a water proof bag with spare batteries.
I would keep a fire arm, but that is me.  Someone may see you on the road with a back pack, water and other supplies and you may be willing to share but they may not be willing to share your supplies and you may need a weapon to protect your self.  After all your goal is to get home and there may be some unsavory things you will have to do to get there.
A pocket knife and or a multi tool (leather man type thing)
Rain gear (jacket, pants, and hat), and a wool blanket In one of the 2.5 gallon zip lock bags.
You may want ot eliminate 1 liter of water for a pocket filter and maybe some water tabs.
Small first aid kit.

Water is not really my biggest obstacle, but rather our weird geography and distances (its hard to explain without a map or showing you in person).  A lot of good suggesttions WoodDuck, but I'm not a sailor nor boater!
 
I have NOT really considered how to 'get' a boat in an emergency because I don't know where the best place to land it would be!  And then abandone it!
 
We have a lot of rocky cliffs on my island and rugged terrain to negotiate if not on roads or regular access, so unless a boater already had a marina or pier to go to, in my case its easier to drive, ride or walk.  And if forced to walk, I'd get off the asphalt to avoid THUGS and authorities, unless the emergency hadn't panicked everyone!  But thats one of those things we won't know until it actually happened.
 
By the way, when I say we have a lot of rocky cliffs terrain and (some) beaches, the tsunami that hit Japan last year would have had to have been a couple hundred feet higher to affect 98+ percent of the residents here.
OK wait a minute, How if you live on an ISLAND is water not an obsticle?  Water kept Gilligan on that Island for 4 seasons and 10 years in re runs.  ;D
 
If by some chance there is something that prohibits you from driving or walking such as bridges collaps in a ground shake or fire stopps the bridges I figured a Sailing class would do a couple things.
Teach you how to handle a small boat and get from point A to B 
Sailing takes less energy to move than does hiking.  Faster too.
You can take the sailing class at two different locations.  One near the office and one near the house.  They teach you how to get the small craft in the water.
I figured you could sail around your island and find a dock or two maybe a marina to land on and tie up the boat to return after the emergency or use to get your family back ot the main land.  On land a dip in the ground can conceal danger, not so on a river or the ocean.  If there is another boat you will see them and have time to tell their intention.

Offline Couger

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #43 on: March 14, 2012, 02:52:24 PM »
Quote from: mcwoodduck
OK wait a minute, How if you live on an ISLAND is water not an obsticle?  Water kept Gilligan on that Island for 4 seasons and 10 years in re runs.  ;D
 
If by some chance there is something that prohibits you from driving or walking such as bridges collaps in a ground shake or fire stopps the bridges I figured a Sailing class would do a couple things.
Teach you how to handle a small boat and get from point A to B 
Sailing takes less energy to move than does hiking.  Faster too.
You can take the sailing class at two different locations.  One near the office and one near the house.  They teach you how to get the small craft in the water.
I figured you could sail around your island and find a dock or two maybe a marina to land on and tie up the boat to return after the emergency or use to get your family back ot the main land.  On land a dip in the ground can conceal danger, not so on a river or the ocean.  If there is another boat you will see them and have time to tell their intention.
Wow.  Ever been to the northwest WoodDuck?
 
I think you're making a lot of assumptions about an area I don't think you've seen.
 
Have you even flown into or out of SeaTac airport on a clear enough day, to look out the window of the a/c to get an idea of the geography below?   ::)   Or even looked at a detailed map or atlas?

Offline GrassLakeRon

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #44 on: March 15, 2012, 12:57:41 AM »
Couger,

     I take it you don't care for the water option.  I have only flown of SEATAC twice and my comments were nice place, followed by, WOW, I would need a boat.  After reading several of the latest posts, you may want to ask yourself this:  If the SHTF and most people would own cars will want to "head for the hills", then going or taking a route less traveled might be your best option. 

Here is a possible SHTF for your area: One of your dormant volcanoes wakes up and blows it's top.  If the winds are just right it will cover most of the area towards the west.  This will leave you with north into Canada or south.  Do most people in your area have passports?  if no, they will not be going that way.  Do most people have/own/use boats?  Once again, if no, then that may be your only option.

Here is another:  You have a 8.5 earthquake thanks to the Juan De Fuca plate near your house.  It knocks out your bridge to your island home.  Unless you own a boat that is parked in a marina on the work side of the island, then you will wait until someone gets you across, or if your family on the island comes in gets you in a boat.

Ask a geologist about living near a plate boundary.  Mt. Rainer is ready for a wake up.  Think about that when you plan, go look at the pyroclastic flows from the eruption in the 1600's.  It when right down to Seattle and the surrounding areas.  BTW:  If you think that Rainer won't, ask some service folks about being in the near Mt. Pinotubo in 91'.  It erupted in the 1600's and went silent till then.  Look online for "In the Path of a Killer Volcano" (PBS, NOVA from 1991). 

As always, do what you think is right, I have no valve judgements, just be safe.......

Ron

Offline Couger

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #45 on: March 15, 2012, 06:21:23 AM »
Well Ron, at least from flying into and out of SeaTac (that's actually the name of the incorporated community that is now a "city" around Seattle's airport),  you might start to have a perspective of the magnitude and vastness of this place!  But even from the air the perspective still confuses me!  Since I'm not trained on how to judge things that way (I doubt anyone at GBO makes maps or studies satillite photos for a living is all I'm saying).  The Puget Sound takes up 2/3 of this state "width" is how big this area is, (and Oregon is even different in and of itself too).
 
As for just hopping on the S.S. Minnow and casually getting off some 'gilligan's place' is "not likely."  ???
 
This area is huge.  Formed by glaciation as well as vulcanism and at present, plate tectonics.  this area sits on huge masses, foundations, "islands" of rock and often high jagged cliffs.  People don't get around much by "boat!"  Plus people don't swim off whatever shores or very rocky rugged beaches - the water is COLD!  In fact our climate is a 'marine' climate like England and the UK have! (the only two regions in the world like that, according to my 9th grade geography teacher  ;)  ).
 
Yes it may sound weird to those that have never been here, but transportation here depends mostly on public roads (and some private planes), altho there's also ferries at two key landings on western and southern Whidbey Isle, but they're 30+ and 50+ miles away!
 
One of them is the Clinton-Mulkiteo ferry seen in the movie "Double Jeopardy" with Tommy Lee Jones and Ashley Judd, where the chick drives Jone's car off the ferry into the water to make her escape.  The first half of that flick was filmed on Whidbey I. 
 
At the begiing it showed also the bridge at Deception Pass (a huge state tourist attraction that's ALWAYS traffic jammed in the summer, to the frustration of residents as tourist like to gawk at and off of it!  Deception P. is as high as the Golden Gate, and the water under it is 60 fathams deep - that's 360 feet). sometimes jumpers go off of it, and one murder since I've lived here.
 
There are eight or nine American islands in in the greater Puget Sound; the 3 northern most create whats known as the San Juan's (and San Juan county);  Whidbey is south of the island Anacortes is on (with another island in between that one and the mainland which is an indian reservation).  And then much further south is Vashon and another 'seattle' island that's part of that vicinity.
 
If this whole area was hit with a crisis (a quake, tsunami, martial law, whatever), the best thing to do is get back on the mainland (somehow) and then somewhere's EAST of interstate-5, trying to make your way eastward over the Cascade Divide away from the biggest Seattle mobs or crowds
 
Things start to improve substantially/dramatically after that!
 
Ron you also mentioned some of the volcanos.  Except for Mt Baker, all of the 'serious' ones geologists worry about are south and southeast this locale.  If an event like St Helen's blowing its top again or like was featured in the flick "Dante's Peak," no doubt my community would feel its affects and we'd get some evacuees.  However, all of the ash should be downwind of this area.  Also best way to travel eastward (by road) would be over Steven's pass (Snoqualme would be a zoo!  If not jammed or closed).  Of course one could hop a train (too) I suppose.
 
If any of those volcanos immediately east and south of Seattle erupted, casualties could rival Japan's a year ago.  I know Japan was hit by a quake followed by a tidal wave,  but that region of WA and Oregon is also believed to be most vulnerable to tsunamis.
 
There is one thing going for that region, in that it may be the best equipped amd monitored  "area" and region in the world with seismic sensors to warn of quakes and tsunamis.  And perhaps the highest concentration of those kinds of scientists too.   :o   ::)   ;D   
 
Sorry for any rambling.

Offline SHOOTALL

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #46 on: March 15, 2012, 06:29:50 AM »
How many listen to a CD ir such instead of a radio station with news updates  ?  The US border got closed after I crossed into Canada if the wife had not called we would not have known for some time. I mostly listen to the radio these days when I travel. Then it sat tv again local problems might not get attention until way late.
If ya can see it ya can hit it !

Offline mcwoodduck

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #47 on: March 15, 2012, 11:52:37 AM »
Quote from: mcwoodduck
OK wait a minute, How if you live on an ISLAND is water not an obsticle?  Water kept Gilligan on that Island for 4 seasons and 10 years in re runs.  ;D
 
If by some chance there is something that prohibits you from driving or walking such as bridges collaps in a ground shake or fire stopps the bridges I figured a Sailing class would do a couple things.
Teach you how to handle a small boat and get from point A to B 
Sailing takes less energy to move than does hiking.  Faster too.
You can take the sailing class at two different locations.  One near the office and one near the house.  They teach you how to get the small craft in the water.
I figured you could sail around your island and find a dock or two maybe a marina to land on and tie up the boat to return after the emergency or use to get your family back ot the main land.  On land a dip in the ground can conceal danger, not so on a river or the ocean.  If there is another boat you will see them and have time to tell their intention.
Wow.  Ever been to the northwest WoodDuck?
 
I think you're making a lot of assumptions about an area I don't think you've seen.
 
Have you even flown into or out of SeaTac airport on a clear enough day, to look out the window of the a/c to get an idea of the geography below?   ::)   Or even looked at a detailed map or atlas?
No good point I am picturing the East Coast where I grew up from the Wide rivers of NJ where we lived was a river in the back yard and the ocean a mile a way and when we had rain nad high tides we would get flooded out of or in the house  and would have to wait for low tide, to get home or run out to the store.  Sometimes found it was faster to take the boat to get out.
I was also picturing the Islands of the Chesapeak bay of MD and VA, or the rivers of Pamlico Sound in NC.
 

Offline GrassLakeRon

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Re: After a major crisis, how long to get to where?
« Reply #48 on: March 16, 2012, 12:50:01 AM »
The one cardinal rule that I hear about Bugging out is make 3 different plans.  Would you agree that most people will head inland?  This still just seems problematic.  I live around the Detroit area.  I could not imagine any interstate being passable.  Most drivers in our area do 20-25 mph over any posted speed limit.  This in bad time causes many accidents, and that is not in a panic.  Most side streets are bad/blocked at 5pm when most folks go home.  When you have 2012 numbers of cars on a road designed in 1940 it is a plan for disaster.  I would think that Seattle is about the same based upon typical government planning and spending, so your roads are mostly narrow and your interstates are made to only handle moderate traffic at peak times. 

If this is the case, then the only plan that would work based on the get to the other side of the interstate would be if you anticpated  the disaster and left a day or even 12 hours in advance.  With most things however that would be impossible.  My work is 25.2 miles away from home.  I have 7 parallel  roads I can take from gravel to freeway, from there I have 5 roads heading into an area of vary low population to get me as far away from the bulk of freeway folks as possible.  The only variable is time.  The best laid plans often fail due to time.  I would practice your plan to get off the island or get to your island at peak traffic in bad weather to get a since of the time needed, then turn around with family in tow and start heading to Idaho ( you can stop about an hour out of the city) just to get a since of exactly how long you have.  Then an 30-60 minutes.

You should also ask what is the few things you hold dear that is a worldly possessions.  See if when you have no choice of returning home that you can take it..... The reason I ask, some folks/families have things that they take in order to keep a since of "family" other then just being alive.  We had the talk.  We said 5 small totes.  If it doesn't fit, it doesn't go.  If we need to drop them we can in order to survive but think of a scared child without something to comfort them and how bad that will make things.......

I am glad you started this discussion.......Makes us think.......

Ron