Of course, the american public buys rags which feature headlines to the effect that Elvis is still alive and was abducted by aliens.
There are two negative campaigns going on: the anti-Kerry campaign and the anti-Bush campaign. At least the swift boat veterans publicity can be considered the anti-Kerry campaign. The Kitty Kelly book, the Michael Moore movie, the 60 minutes broadcast last wednesday -- at least -- cna be considered the anti-Bush campaign.
Personally, I don't think the anti-Bush campaign has enough substance to sway undecided voters. Virulent, foaming at the mouth Bush haters will buy into this big time . . . but they were decided voters a long time ago. It is quite possible the anti-Bush campaign may have the unexpected consequence of pushing some undecided voters into the Bush camp. I think the 60 minutes forged documents scandal has this potential.
Looking to the anti-Kerry campaign, I think it is clear that the swift boat veterans ARE having an effect on Kerry's numbers, decreasing Kerry's numbers. Ask yourself why? I haven't followed this closely, but saw some interesting interviews over the weekend. It seems to me if these swift boat veterans were conducting false smear attacks it would be fairly easy to dispute their claims, at least SOME of the claims. To date I have heard of no effort from the Kerry group to contend the allegations of the swift boat veterans.
Frankly, the official Bush campaign has not applied itself to bashing Kerry, though there seems to be much that Kerry has left himself open to. Ask yourself why? Firstly, they are making headway without resorting to this tactic, and sometimes bashing your opponent can work against you (reference the effects of Bush bashing). Secondly, there is yet time to do this, and the later in the campaign, the more damaging because the less time remains to perform damage control. I could see the Bush group calling Kerry to account for his anti-gun votes, holding his feet to the fire on his anti-defense votes (alla Senator Zell), tieing Kerry to Michael Dukakis and perhaps to the same "weak on crime" reputation that sank Dukakis, and a host of liberal causes. If need be, the Bush group could resort to probing Kerry's complete Vietnam record -- receiving 4 deferments before running out of deferments (they have attacked Cheney for getting deferments, but Kerry seems to have played the same game only 20% less effectively), fraudulent medals, criminal fraternization with the enemy, questionable military discharge circumstances. Bring this stuff up during the debates and where is Kerry? What is his response? This is a very public venue; everyone will be watching; no chance for the major media outlets to filter and cut the Bush statements and challenge.
It seems to me that it is just about over for Kerry. There is the strong odor of desperation about his campaign. It just takes one event to consign his defeat to a foregone conclusion. Could the denuement of the 60 minutes forgeries provide this? Could some shocking revelation about Kerry's past provide this event? Could the capture of Ossama Bin Laden provide this event? Could the discovery of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq provide this event? Any of these events might accomplish this, granted that several of them are highly speculative. The same applies to Bush, but Bush has stood the trial of fire for quite some time. What bad news about Bush has not been OUTED? The Democrats have thrown their worst at Bush and nothing has gained traction. I'm not saying Bush is perfect, it just isn't enough to make people turn to Kerry.
