Went out again and tried at 100yds with no wind, same poor results. I do not dispute that the wind is a factor. In my case I believe I have other serious problems as well.
I tried yet another bullet, in this case a 'Swiftkik' in 365gr. The same weight as the T/C Maxi-Ball that shot so well on a 70 degree day. Anyway, the box said 'sized to .541"', and I confirmed that with calipers. When I went to load in a clean, dry barrel, the bullet was so loose it dropped into the muzzle beyond the reach of my short starter. When I used my brass range rod to seat, the weight of the ramrod pushed that bullet all the way to the powder. Accuracy stunk, even at 25yds.
Got home that night, took one of the T/C Maxi-Ball, and verified the diameter was .538". Put some smooth jaws in my vise and swaged it until it measured .555". Ran that into the rifle until just short of the chamber area, popped it out with the CO2 discharger into a wad of soft cloth. When I measured that it shows a bore diameter to the bottom of the grooves of .551".
This means that Maxi has got to slug up .013". Man alive, the .533" Minie ball I've tried was expected to slug up .018"! To me that sounds like an awful lot to expect.
Who out there has slugged their bore and knows how much their particular bullet is 'bumping up' to fully engage the rifling?