Labor Memo Suggests Bush to Win Election
By LEIGH STROPE
(WASHINGTON (AP) - Labor Department staff, analyzing statistics from private economists, report in an internal memo that President Bush is likely to do "much better" in Tuesday's election than the polls are predicting.
The Kerry campaign said the analysis was an improper use of taxpayer money, and the Labor Department acknowledged Friday, "Clearly, this kind of armchair political analysis doesn't belong in government memos, even if they are entirely internal."
The Labor Department report, obtained by The Associated Press, includes an analysis of economic models that suggest Bush will beat Democrat John Kerry. Titled "In Focus: Predicting the Election Outcome," the memo says, "Nearly every single model has him winning."
"Some show the margin of victory being smaller than the models' inherent margin of error, while others report the lead as substantial. And this is without the consideration of a third-party candidate."
Bush's win of the popular vote could be 57.5 percent, 55.7 percent or 51.2 percent, said the paper, dated Oct. 22 and prepared by the department's Employment and Training Administration staff for the assistant labor secretary.
The Bush administration blamed midlevel employees for preparing inappropriate government material.
"This appears to be an internal ETA document prepared by midlevel ETA staff," said Labor Department spokesman Ed Frank.
Kerry's campaign contended the Bush administration was wasting taxpayers' money.
"If the Bush administration focused more on the economy and less on politics, George Bush would not be the first president in 70 years to lose jobs," said Kerry campaign spokesman Phil Singer. "George Bush has turned the government into his own taxpayer-funded political machine."
The document also includes a Washington Post story, an article from Monster.com and charts and briefs on the latest economic indicators.
One factor in the election that has been "downplayed is the president's popularity," a variable the report says may be important. "Fortunately, there are models (that) incorporate this concept," it says.
The economic models are not infallible, but they do "systematically measure past data, which is a far cry better than relying on anecdotal evidence," the paper says. The models looked at an array of economic indicators, including gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation.
The analysis also discusses a futures market that lets players bid on a probable election outcome. It also checked Web sites of oddsmakers in America and abroad.
