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April 14, 2006 -- IT LOOKS as if voters are starting to tilt toward get-tough Republicans on immigration - and those massive protest rallies by illegal aliens waving flags have backfired.
Republicans are now more trusted on immigration - 37 percent trust them on the issue, while just 31 percent trust Democrats, according to a national survey by the Rasmussen Reports Web site done April 8-9.
That marks a Democratic slide from 10 days earlier, when both parties were equally trusted on the hot issue. Thirty-eight percent said they trusted Republicans and 37 percent trusted Democrats.
"The Democrats lost ground," said pollster Scott Rasmussen. "I suspect theres backlash against the rallies, and the Democrats appear to be against enforcement. People say beforewe talk about reforms, we ought to enforce the law."
Rasmussen - who accurately predicted the 2004 presidential election - notes that 57 percent of Americans want a barrier built along the Mexican border, even though only 42 percent think it would really cut illegal immigration.
So maybe the conventional and politically correct media wisdom is wrong, as usual, with its focus on Republican splits over immigration and the risk that get-tough Republicans will alienate Latinos.
In the short term, Dems could be running bigger risks heading into next falls election - the risk that theyll look soft on national security in the post- 9/11 era by opposing tough border controls.
When Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada blocked a bipartisan immigration bill last week, a prime reason was that he didnt want Democrats to have to take a stand on amendments for tougher border patrols and deporting aliens who commit crimes.
Republican Rep. Peter King (R-L.I.) - who backs get-tough laws against illegal immigration - says his phone calls are 99-1 favorable and hes getting even more calls on this issue than on the failed Dubai ports deal.
"When Democrats embrace [the protesters], that drives home to the people that Democrats support illegal immigration," King claims.
For many Republicans, immigration may turn out to be like the Dubai ports deal - a chance to take a tougher line on border security than President Bush, who favors a guest worker program
