Author Topic: The odds of success  (Read 1035 times)

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Offline huntsman

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The odds of success
« on: June 18, 2003, 04:38:51 AM »
I was doing a little paper work, part of my preseason routine, that involves plotting shot distances on aerial maps from some permanent stands. In the process, I happened to calculate the total area I could effectively hunt from these stands. It was just a curiosity, but it brought home to me the importance of hunting as many hours as you can.

I hunt mostly brushy country, mixed mesquite, oak, and elm aldjacent to drainages. My average area covered by a stand is about 7 acres. Our buck age structure is about 25% 3+ year-old bucks (potential trophies). The average home range of a mature whitetail buck in this country is around 1 1/2 square miles (960 acres). During the rut, the older bucks expand this range quite a bit searching for receptive does, so let's increase that modestly to 1400 acres. Based on our land layout and the buck age structure above, somewhere between 3 and 5 3+ year-old bucks are likely to have a range that includes the hunting area of my stand. Let's take the average and say it's 4.

Big bucks move a lot during the rut, but the majority of their activity is at night, so let's say that only 40% of their activity occurs during shooting hours. In addition, we must account for the fact that a buck is only going to be active about 60% of any 24-hour period. That leaves us with only a 24% chance that the buck will be moving within its range during shooting hours.

Let's also assume completely random movement uniformly throughout their range (which is never actually the case, but without specific data for each deer, we must assume the random uniform movement). This means that the chance for any movement within my stand area for any given buck is 7acres/1400acres = 0.5% chance of movement through my stand area, x4 bucks in range (from above) = 2%. This must be modified by the activity factor in the paragraph above (24% chance of daylight activity), so the net result is about 0.5% chance of seeing a 3+ year-old buck on any given day. To be statistically assurred of seeing one of these bucks, I would need to hunt all day for 200 days!

Of course, stand placement, concentrated movement patterns, etc. increase these odds, sometimes dramatically. But the point is, we are fighting an uphill battle against the odds. If we only hunt half the daylight hours, we will decrease our odds of seeing the good bucks by 50%. I have aother theory that if you skip the middle daylight hours @ 10 am to 2 pm, you will reduce your odds quite a bit more. Stay out there as long as you can! 8)
There is no more humbling experience for man than to be fully immersed in nature's artistry.

Offline longwinters

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The odds of success
« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2003, 12:29:23 PM »
I think you have too much time on your hands.  You better go pig hunting and figure out how many mouth watering bites you can get out of the pig you will bring home tonite. :)  :)  :)
Life is short......eternity is long.

Offline jhm

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« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2003, 03:31:42 PM »
Huntsman :  Thats too much math for me, here is all the math I use for a day in the field during deer season : One deer rifle of sufficient caliber for the day, 5 shells for said gun, hunt all the days of the season as I am retirerd so vacation days dont count, dont kill more than I can use or the law allows, well I better go and count my shells to make sure I have them 5 for the up coming deer season, BTW instead of sitting around I need to start buying the seed for the food plots that will go in about the middle of july. :D   JIM

Offline grouper sandwich

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The odds of success
« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2003, 09:55:04 AM »
Damn, now I'm depressed! :(

Offline Ron T.

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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2003, 09:49:47 AM »
Huntsman...

You must be an engineer and a really serious deer hunter to do all that math to come up with the chances you have of seeing a trophy-sized buck.

Last year, at dawn on Opening Day of Buck Season, with the temperature hovering around 10º above zero with a light wind, I sat all bundled up on a 3-legged stool in the snow, leaning back against a tree, among the mountain laurel along the edge of  the “pipeline” in the Moshannon State Forest in North-Central Pennsylvania near my hunting buddy’s cozy cabin.  I have a “standing invitation” to join him each Buck Season… something I’ve done for the past many years.  Even though I’ve seen bucks and even viewed them through my scope with the crosshairs on their shoulders, I’ve never fired a shot.

In my hands, I held a half-century old, but like-new-looking Savage Model 99 lever action rifle in .300 Savage, a caliber introduced 83 years ago… “THE” truly “classic” whitetail deer rifle/cartridge combination… and I didn’t feel a bit “under-gunned” or at any disadvantage.

The Model 99 is a far cry from the moose-busting pre-’64 Model 70 Winchester rifle in .338 Winchester magnum that I carried on many hunting trips throughout the United States and Canada for over 40 years.

Over the past 10 years, I had mentioned to my sons that the .338 magnum was starting to bother me while shooting if off the bench rest.  The heavy recoil produced by my “hot” handloads had  began to really “beat me up” after 20 rounds or so… to the point where it wasn’t any “fun” to shoot it off the bench rest anymore.

I “retired” the big Winchester a few years ago when my hunting buddy and my four adult children joined together and presented me with the like-new 1953 Model 99 in .300 Savage caliber as a birthday present… a lever-action rife I’ve admired for many years.

Now I can shoot 50 rounds or more of it’s cartridges at one sitting at the bench rest and NOT have a SORE, black & blue shoulder the next day like I had when I shot the .338 Win. magnum 30 or 40 times off the benchrest.

I go deer hunting because I love the camaraderie of my two sons and my close friends in deer camp… and the inter-action of the men and all the traditions that go with it.  I love being out in the woods and, naturally, seeing deer, but it’s the TRADITIONS of deer hunting that I really enjoy… not the killing.  

Would I shoot a deer?  Yes, I probably would… if it were a BIG 10-pointer or more (eastern count)!  Would I shoot an 8-pointer?  I dunno… probably not.  Would I shoot a 6-pointer… definitely NOT.

You see… deer hunting is NOT about the “killing”… it’s about the TRADITION and the ENJOYMENT of the hunt… it’s about being in the woods and the CAMARADERIE of the men in your deer camp… it’s about holding a half century old rifle in your hands that was first designed & first manufactured more than a 100 years ago (1899) in a caliber (the .300 Savage)  that is 83 years old (introduced in 1920).

You see… “deer hunting” isn’t about DEATH, it’s about LIVING… and TRADITION… and those things that are so very private and important to us… those things we rarely talk about, but honor so much.        :-)


Strength & Honor…

Ron T.
"The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government."  - Thomas Jefferson

Offline jhm

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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2003, 11:22:43 AM »
Ron T : excellent post.  Thanks  :D    JIM

Offline Ron T.

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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2003, 01:19:52 PM »
You're welcome, Jim...

I was sitting here at my computer's keyboard... and it just "came out"!
 :idea3:

I suspect it's how a great many men feel about hunting.  Most of us just never verbalize it.

 :-)

Ron T.
"The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government."  - Thomas Jefferson

Offline Camel 23

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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2003, 06:29:01 PM »
Huntsman, you didn't factor in Nap Time!  Ya, we all enjoy hanging out with the guys after the hunt at camp and all of the traditions that go along with deer season, and I think we would all like to bag a 3yr old or better buck, but you have to figure in Nap Time in the blind! :grin:

Offline huntsman

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The odds of success
« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2003, 07:40:10 PM »
Ron T.

I loved your post. I enjoyed what you said about your love of the sport of hunting and the traditions that go with it. I just wanted you to know that all of that math isn't about the kill and nothing else. On the contrary, I just flat wouldn't hunt if the sport didn't have all those things you mentioned about friendship, tradition, cameraderie (sp?), and just loving being in the woods. I was really just making a point about how truly blessed a hunter is to see a real trophy buck walk within range, and how if you're really dedicated to seeing that (like I am), you need to be able to appreciate the hours you are going to put in to make it a reality.

I agree with you that hunting is not about killing, but about being out there enjoying nature and the outdoors. All of that time I spend waiting for papsita to come along is filled with observing nature, naming all the birds I see, reading the changes in the clouds, watching dew drip off the tree limbs, in short-just about anything natural. I've gone some seasons without killing anything, and some of them have been the best I've experienced. Last year I went out for the first time unarmed after I'd already filled my tag, just to be with my cousins and enjoy the outdoors. I was rewarded with the pleasure of an awesome sunset and seeing a cagey eight pointer sneak away from one of my cousins as he set up on his stand.

Thanks for reminding us all what we're in this sport for. Just go out and enjoy your hunt, and let the rest come naturally. And if you happen to get the chance at a trophy buck, know that you've been truly blessed. 8)
There is no more humbling experience for man than to be fully immersed in nature's artistry.

Offline Ron T.

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The odds of success
« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2003, 04:22:11 PM »
Ahhhhhhhhh.... yes, Sportsman...

I sense, by your words, that you and I are of the same mind.


Good Hunting!

Ron T.
"The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government."  - Thomas Jefferson

Offline willis5

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« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2003, 10:23:49 AM »
great post! Send that to a magazine to let people know how HUNTERS feel.
Cheers,
Willis5

Offline jhm

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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2003, 11:54:54 AM »
Ron T :  Have you ever attended the GRAND in Vandalia?  Its been over 20 years since I shot there, eye and hand control was alot better back then anyhow I saw your town of residence and it brought back a few old and good memories. :D    JIM

Offline Ron T.

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« Reply #12 on: June 30, 2003, 09:00:18 AM »
Jim...

Yes, I use to attend the Grand American Trap Shoot every year.  My home is only about 3 miles due south of the "Grand".  In fact, if the wind is blowing out of the north or northwest, we can hear the "popping" of the thousands of shotguns up there.

I bought my little 28 gauge over/under skeet gun up there, too... it was a special model of thel Charles Daly, weighed less then 6 lbs.   I also had my Model 70 my name engraved with on it up at the "Grand" as well.

Strength & Honor...

Ron T.
"The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government."  - Thomas Jefferson