Philosophy: Cartridge longevity

[Questor]

How long does a cartridge need to be on the market before we know it's going to survive? We've had so many recent cartridge introductions, some truly puzzling, that I wonder how long it will be before we know whether they are going to survive on the market.

Is there a way of finding out how well a cartridge is doing on the market?

How does a potential customer protect himself from cartridge obsolescence? For example, if the 7mmWSM is now hard to get ammo for (and I'm not saying it is, I'm just using it as an example), then how much might it cost to rechamber the gun for something more readily available?

I wonder if there's a new industry to emerge in retrofitting guns away from obsolete modern cartridges.

One that comes  to mind as good is the new 338 that Hornady developed. Seems like a good idea, especially if it will handle bullets up to 250 grains. But my psychology being what it is, I'd probably buy a 338 win mag just because it's better supported by rifle and ammo makers.

I also wonder what compelling force is needed to unseat an established cartridge within a niche. For example, since the 30-06 is so popular and universally accepted, what point is there in introducing a different cartridge that does the same thing? It does not seem to be the same problem as introducing a new cartridge into an empty niche.

[myronman3]

It does not seem to be the same problem as introducing a new cartridge into an empty niche.

     that is the problem.  there arent really any empty niches available.   i would say 99.99 percent of this crap is marketing, pure and simple, and the ONLY reason that it has any success is that there are lots of people out there who just dont know any better, and believe what they are told.  what is really funny, is that the people selling the stuff 90% of the time dont know any better themselves.   
   one of my favorite things to do is to talk to sales staff in sports stores and ask them question after question about stuff, especially when i know they dont know and are trying to b.s. their way through it.  i call them on it and watch them squirm.   lol.
   it is all marketing,  and that will only be good for a short while. 

[Questor]

Something happened at a big box sporting good store last week that I wish I had done something about. There was a guy asking about a suitable house gun for various criteria and he clearly did not know much about self defense guns. The sales guy showed him a .410 derringer. I personally cannot think of a worse gun to recommend to a neophyte shooter for self defense. Shame on the buyer for not doing his homework, but at the same time I wonder what the sales guy was thinking.

[SHOOTALL]

cost !
new cart. have R&D which raises cost .
established cart. have competition which keeps cost down .
3006 vs. 308 , a cart. could not have had a better chance to topple and old one and it ain't done it in 50 years .
good is good !

[Questor]

The whole 30-06 vs. 308 has always been fascinating. We recently had the choice when shopping for a rifle for my son and picked the .308. It will do what he is likely to need with that rifle. The ammo is more compact than the 30-06 and the rifle itself is a trifle more compact. We couldn't have gone wrong with either one. The 308 was just more appealing.

[SHOOTALL]

yep !
but some say it is just a bit slower or better with 180+ gr. bullets etc. etc. and on and on .
what deer could tell ?

[skb2706]

Because I am a long time handloader and as long as I can find brass that can be fashioned into what I want or have, I won't really care. I don't particularly care if arms makers discontinue certain rounds that I have as i have never bought ammo for them anyway. As long as there is brass for such rounds as .308, 30-30, .223, 30-06 and possibly a couple of others I am set. Even if I went out and bought a .338 Federal (a round I doubt will last) I can work with it for as long as .308 brass exists.
Its the guys who buy a rifle chambered in rounds like the .223 WSSM, .25 WSSM and don't handload. He could be SOL at some point in time and be forced to rechamber or worse re-barrel.

[victorcharlie]

One thing for sure, if it's based on a US military round it has a good chance of surviving.

Not sure about the .338 Federal, only time will tell.....

[Questor]

I need a program to tell me who the players are. Is the 338 federal the one that Hornady just released that will shoot 250 grain bullets? Or is there another 338 that only does bullets up to about 225 grains because it's so short?

[Heavy C]

Don't know about your last question Questor, but with regard to the original question I agree with Myronman.  It is all marketing.  Without the introduction of new cartridges the industry as a whole would not experience the growth it usually does.  While we know there are no known empty niches to be filled one of the keys to marketing is creating a need.  Most of the folks, I suspect, are new to our sport and don't know what they don't know.  So they read about this new whiz bang cartridge and they think they need it.  I believe the 30 TC is a perfect example of this.  You have a brand new rifle why not debut a new cartridge?  IMO one begets the other.

[Questor]

That 30 TC, in my mind, overshadowed the rifle. I stopped taking the rifle seriously when I saw they had some contrivance for a cartridge.

[Graybeard]

It wouldn't be called the .338 Federal if Hornady had brought it out now would it? Nope I think you're talking about a child of the new .375 Ruger that Hornady is working on.

[Heavy C]

That's another good example GB.  In the end, if there was nothing fundamentally wrong or inadequate about the original cartride; then I don't believe the longevity for that new cartridge will be there.  Even newbies will soon learn that cost is higher, it's hard to find the ammo, and/or they can't find components to reload.