Do you think world oil production has peaked?

[DalesCarpentry]

   Do you think world oil production has peaked? I watched a Documentary last night called A CRUDE Awakening. Many of the experts believe we have peaked and it is all down hill from here. The facts they layed out in the Documentary are quite startling. If they are right we could be out of oil in 10 to 20 years. If you can find this on the net you should download it and watch it. Dale

[Graybeard]

They are still finding new sources each year and many of the new ones are supposedly larger than previously known reserves. There is a HUGE amount locked away up in Alaska not even being touched and from what I understand Canada alone has enough to supply the world and we have oil shell that also is a huge supply but is not so cheap to get out of the shell.

No I think there are likely more reserves not yet found than all currently known reserves combined that will one day be located and there are sources known but not currently being utilized due to not having a good extraction method that will be developed in time.

I just think we need to wean ourselves from foreign oil for much of what can be done with other energy sources and use oil only for those things for which there are not yet better energy sources such as fueling our vehicles.

[DalesCarpentry]

Did you know that every year the countries have to report to Opeck the amount oil they still have. Well most of the middle eastern countries have not changed their estimates in 10 years. Dale

[30-30man]

The best thing we can ever do is quit trading with these OPEC countries and build refineries where no one lives.( Arizona desert/ New Mexico?) People need to get rid of their large suvs if they don't need them.  The Arabs think all Americans have bottomless pockets.  They could care less about us or if what it is doing to our economy.   The problem is demand too.  India and China are going through a boom and driving up crude prices.  I have to admit, I've changed a lot of my ways since gas hit $3.00 a gallon and diesel is $3.60 now.  I use to run a fuel oil  incinerator to get rid of my dead turkeys.  Now, I use scrap wood from a pallet business in town.  I drive a lot less too. In short, I don't think there is a shortage of oil, the access to it maybe changing and our habits will be forced to change.  Opec has said they are not doing squat.

[Dee]

LOL! I have also seen some DOCUMENTARIES on Global warming, and what the extinction of the honey bee in the United States would do to our environment. Oh yeah! The honey bee is not native to America. They forgot to mention that. LOL! There is more oil in the area that joins Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming than is probably in the middle east. The legislative tree huggers, won't let us touch it. Peaked? LOL! Controlled? Hell yes.

[torpedoman]

if price controls were put in place and the speculators were told that anybody who offers over 40 bucks a barrel is going to jail this whole mess would go away overnight but you government is owned by the oil companys

[Dee]

if price controls were put in place and the speculators were told that anybody who offers over 40 bucks a barrel is going to jail this whole mess would go away overnight but you government is owned by the oil companys

NOW HERE IS A GUY THAT UNDERSTANDS THE CONCEPT, AND THE MEN BEHIND IT. WELL SAID TORPEDOMAN.

[oldandslow]

Yep, let's build some refineries in the Arizona desert where no one lives. It takes people to run a refinery. It also takes oil and Arizona has no oil. So you have the expense of getting the oil to the refinery and then the expense of getting in back to where someone can buy it. We have oil here in the southeast corner of New Mexico and we already have two refineries. There has been talk of closing the one about 10 miles south of me because they are having trouble finding a market and transferring their production to the Artesia plant.

[magooch]

I should know better than to believe anything I hear on the news, but a couple of days ago, I heard that the world's known oil reserves are up 12 per cent.

Anyone who believes that government control of prices will produce more of a commodity has lived a very sheltered life, or just hasn't been around long enough to remember how well that has worked--every time it's been tried.

I took notice the other day of what people are driving to work.  About half of the people around here are driving four wheel drive SUVs and full size pickups and such to work.  Now I'm all for freedom and choice, but it seems to me if folks would choose something a little more fuel efficient to get back and forth to work and other mundane chores, it might bring down the demand a bit--like maybe half.

[oldandslow]

I was working in the oil field as a self employed welder when Nixon imposed price controls. The petroleum industry was booming but you could not get material to work with. The welding rod supply dried up over night. We could get some rods imported from Mexico. It was total junk. Finding steel was like looking for hen's teeth. We found some channell iron to build seperator bases manufactured in France. It was sorrier than the rods we were getting. As soon as the price freeze expired welding rods were again available, just at double the price they were when the freeze was imposed. So much for government controls. I did manage to have gasoline because I paid my bills every month. My distributor told me he knew who paid their bills and I didn't have to worry. And no, production hasn't peaked, as the price goes up it becomes economical to look in more places. Eventually it will peak though but I doubt in my time.

[Chilachuck]

First of all, most of the big oil companies are owned by governments. Moslem and Socialistic governments. Remember that Chavez just nationalized the oil fields down there?

Who is the "we" that's going to throw "who" in jail?

Know what happens when someone resorts to price controls? Trouble. People find ways around them and the actual price goes straight up. Try finding an apartment in a city with price controls on rent.

[jamesrus]

Ok Opec has enough oil alone to supply the world considering global growth and useage for the next 35 to 40 years with known reserves. The US has enough to supply the world for approximately the same amount of time if all the save the pygmy slew footed thatch haired mole people would let it happen. I work in the oil industry and i know for a fact that in one drilling block in the gulf of mexico there were 72 wells drilled and capped. Drilled into large deposits of oil, capped for future useage. When large unregulated companies like Exxon Mobile, Conoco Phillips, etc. can do what they want, guess who takes the shaft? The common working class people. Do you think the President who doesnt have to pay for anything during his term in office cares what we the people are paying for gas? Tax incentives to help the economy? Wow me and my wife are going to get back 1200 bucks from that one. That is less than half of one of my bi monthly paychecks, and we are struggling to keep up. I drive a 1995 ford f250 powerstroke diesel truck that gets 21 miles per gallon, at the current $3.60 per gallon, 36 gallons per fill up. That is 129.60 dollars per fill up, to go roughly 760 miles. I average about 900 miles per month since i work away from home 6 months out of each year.  That is a yearly cost for fuel of about $1850.00 . I cannot drive a smaller more eco friendly vehicle because you cant tow a tractor with a toyota corrola.  I do have a motorcycle that averages about 48 miles per gallon, and i put 14000 miles on it last year.  Now my wife who works a full time job at a hospital 30 miles from our home averages 400 miles per week which comes to 20,800 miles per year, at $2.80 average. Anyone do the math yet? $5824.00 per year. She brings home about $26,000.00 per year so 1/5th of her income goes toward travel.  And none of these figures are accounting for maintenence or upkeep.

Jamesrus

[Graybeard]

You guys drive almost as much each year as I have since getting my Toyota in October of 2004 and that includes a trip to KY and one to OK from my home here in Bama. I just recently rolled over 25,000 miles on it and come October 9 of this year will have had it four years. I reckon I'm what you'd call a low mileage driver. 

[Sourdough]

Yes Bill, I'd say you are a low mileage driver.  The wife puts over 20,000 driving to work, and into town on weekends in her KIA Sportage.  The son drives roughly the same amount going into town for college and to hockey practices and games.  I put over 30,000 on my Ford F-350 last year just going on hunting trips, camping, fishing trips, and to Anchorage for Hockey Tournaments.  Mostly on trips where I needed to tow a heavy trailer.  My daily driver is a Suzuki Samurai, and I have 27,000 on it since I rebuilt the engine last year.  I drive it around locally.

It's 400 miles to Anchorage, 200 miles to Paxson, or Cantwell,  400 miles to the North Slope.  100 miles to the White mountains.  And all of those are one way.

As for oil, why are British Petroleum, Conoco Phillips, and Exxon Mobile, capping wells on the North Slope?  Profit margin, that's why, they are waiting for the price to go even higher before they start pumping more.  Our Dollar is going down, the oil companies are withholding oil, and the bleeding heart environmentalist won't let us drill where there is known oil.  The reserves in ANWR are reported to be larger than Saudis.  Oil has also been found in other areas of the state.

Natural Gas?  The Big Three have been sitting on it for over 30 years, and are refusing to develop it.  Our Governor has said develop it or lose the lease, and she started pulling leases.  Governor Palin also invited plans for a gas pipeline from the North Slope to the lower 48.  Suddenly Conoco Phillips is trying to get into the act.

Refineries is what is needed, and Arizona and New Mexico is not the place they are needed.  They are needed where shipping is available.  Crude Oil has to be received and the different products shipped out.  Coastal port cities are where they are needed.  East Coast, Gulf Coast, West Coast, California get over it.

[wtxbadger]

While not an expert on this subject, I grew up in West Texas and work for a large independent oil company. I have always found it somewhat amusing to hear how the oil companies are just sitting on their production and waiting for prices to go higher to cash in big time and bend the consumer over the table.

Everyone is always willing to buy into a conspiracy without doing honest to goodness research into the facts or what is true. A few pieces of information that are spun the right way never fail to influence, while the actual truth is ignored because it does not fit a person's preconceived notions and bias.

I now await the stories on 200 mile per gallon carburetors that were bought from the inventors and shelved and other endless rumors of inventions bought and shelved because "Big Oil" was afraid their profit margins would take a hit.

Guess it's time to close a few more valves out here in the oil patch and drive the price up a couple a dollars more a barrel and stick it to the hard workin people in the good old USA while us thieving no good oil people bank all of that money.


wtxbadger

[DalesCarpentry]

Do you mean it is not true? I now await the stories on 200 mile per gallon carburetors that were bought from the inventors and shelved and other endless rumors of inventions bought and shelved because "Big Oil" was afraid their profit margins would take a hit.
Dale

[deltecs]

While not an expert on this subject, I grew up in West Texas and work for a large independent oil company. I have always found it somewhat amusing to hear how the oil companies are just sitting on their production and waiting for prices to go higher to cash in big time and bend the consumer over the table.

Everyone is always willing to buy into a conspiracy without doing honest to goodness research into the facts or what is true. A few pieces of information that are spun the right way never fail to influence, while the actual truth is ignored because it does not fit a person's preconceived notions and bias.

I now await the stories on 200 mile per gallon carburetors that were bought from the inventors and shelved and other endless rumors of inventions bought and shelved because "Big Oil" was afraid their profit margins would take a hit.

Guess it's time to close a few more valves out here in the oil patch and drive the price up a couple a dollars more a barrel and stick it to the hard workin people in the good old USA while us thieving no good oil people bank all of that money.


wtxbadger

I think I am by nature a doubting Thomas.  But if you read in previous posts by Sourdough, he has for quite some time stated unequivocally of first hand knowledge of capped wells on the North Slope that are still productive.  In this case, I have to agree with his post.  And as far as I'm concerned all oil companies are thieves.  I came from PA from a family of oilmen and I know from first hand.  I also know from first hand the broken promises by all the oil companies in Alaska regarding taxes and environmental protection.  Remember the Exxon Valdez, where Exxon management kept a relapsed alcoholic in command of a super tanker, without any regard for the consequences of that action to the 34,000 people economically harmed by this reprehensible act, and then did not, have not, will not compensate for all damages.  I call that thieving.  And for your information, you consumers of Exxon Mobil products, paid for the 3.5 Billion dollars, Exxon claimed to spend on the cleanup and compensation fro all damages.  Don't you call that thieving when you charge the consumer for loses due company mismanagement. 

[DalesCarpentry]

What I believe is thievery is with these record high gas prices. Oil companies are reporting all time highs in profit. They are breaking it off in the working mans butt and then smiling about it. They could easily take a little less profit and cut us a break. They are just pure greedy and I wish we could run our cars off water so we could break it off in their butts. Dale

[deltecs]

What I believe is thievery is with these record high gas prices. Oil companies are reporting all time highs in profit. They are breaking it off in the working mans butt and then smiling about it. They could easily take a little less profit and cut us a break. They are just pure greedy and I wish we could run our cars off water so we could break it off in their butts. Dale

We have to remember this every time a Democrat stops any alternative energy facilities from being built, due environmental concerns.  ANWR is an example, nuclear facilities, dams for hydro, solar collectors and wind farms as being to unsightly, geo thermal due potential magma displacement, and last but not least, coal and wood products burning.  No, their answer is to increase the mileage and still be dependent on oil, regardless of consumer prices.  The best way to make oil competitive is to reduce our electrical dependency on it and increase our renewable resources facilities within conceptual and reasonable environmental standards.

[carbineman]

Our governor has the answer Tax the oil companies higher than ever (ya that will help) but not one mention of even taking one penny tax off fuel.

The government probably doesn't explore for oil, develop a patch, set up the equipment, extract the oil, get it to a refinery, send it to a terminal, deliver it to a retail outlet with all the necessary equipment to dispense it according to the government decree, maintain the facilities and do all the required government paperwork, and yet the government in my state makes 31 cents per gallon and 18.4 cents per gallon goes to the fed, and they don't do squat.

Everyone hates Big Tobacco, Big Oil, Big Auto, Mr Big, etc., but to me most of the problems only seem to expand when Big Brother gets into the picture.

Someday if the spigot gets shut off think the government will save us? Whatever happened to a free market supply and demand system. Do I like the prices? NO, but I do have a choice.

Getting back to Dales question, I think that the remaining supplies of oil are probably getting harder and more expensive to extract, more expensive to refine, thus costing more to get into the market place, and thus will cost more. I am more worried about the the devaluing of our fiat currency and the runaway inflation that goes along with that than I am oil extraction. Though oil is the fuel that drives capitalism, if my worthless Federal Reserve Notes can't keep up with global pricing of products, then I feel we are sunk, as I think the very recent increases in fuel prices are directly related to the dollar index.

[Chilachuck]

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators." — P. J. O’Rourke

[Brett]

Carbineman and Chlachuck hit the nail right on the head IMHO.  Take a look at your gas pumps and see how much of each dollar is going to state and federal taxes.  Do the same with your phone bills, (cellular and land line), your electric bill, home heating oil bill, etc. Sure these utilities are putting it to us, but they are using the governments $%#& to do it.   

[oldandslow]

Dale, when you are building a house do you get the going rate for your product (labor) or do you cut your rate to give the customer a break?

I don't like high fuel prices either but I do kind of understand why we have them. At least I'm not having to set in line to buy gas or have to have a ration card. I sat in a few lines in the '70's.

There is a lot more oil available. When it becomes profitable to explore and produce it it will become available. When gas gets scarce enough the places that are off limits for exploration and production will become availabe.

[DalesCarpentry]

Dale, when you are building a house do you get the going rate for your product (labor) or do you cut your rate to give the customer a break?

I don't like high fuel prices either but I do kind of understand why we have them. At least I'm not having to set in line to buy gas or have to have a ration card. I sat in a few lines in the '70's.

There is a lot more oil available. When it becomes profitable to explore and produce it it will become available. When gas gets scarce enough the places that are off limits for exploration and production will become availabe.

Yes there have been a couple times I have cut my price and gave a person a break. The reason being they needed the work done and were hard up. There was a single mother of three working two jobs to support her family. I cut her price on a bathroom by $500.00 because I felt for her and at the time I was not doing to bad. There was a very old couple that were on a fixed income and she had a stroke. After that she needed to use a wheel chair. They needed a roof put over their porch (TO KEEP THE ICE OFF IN THE WINTER) and a ramp built so she could get to and from the van. I did that job for what amounted to about minimum wage. Again because I felt bad for them. They have kept in contact with me even though we live a couple hundred miles apart now. Her husband died a couple years ago and now as far as I know she is in a home. Dale

[gypsyman]

I'm going to be a smart a## here, and say, oil production peaked 10,000 years ago. Oil discovery, now that's a different matter. There is lots of oil to be discovered, just a matter of getting the tree huggers and the owl kissers the hell out of the way. When chaos is right around the corner, and unfortunately I don't think that corner is too many steps away, there's going to be alot of second guessing, on oil discovery,refining, conserving and the like.   gypsyman

[rebAL]

Production may have peaked due to politics, however, SUPPLY is nowhere close to peaking.  We keep finding new sources but USA is unwilling to go after it thanks to BIG GREEN!  Sooooo frustrating.  There is no excuse for any shortage. 

[oldandslow]

Good for you, Dale. I've done a few cut rate and even a couple of free ones over the years. Kind of makes you feel good when they say thanks doesn't it. Unfortunately big companies don't have much feeling for their fellow man so we won't get any breaks from them.

[wtxbadger]

While not an expert on the North Slope of Alaska, I can say that a large of wells drilled offshore are plugged and abandoned. The reason for this is that they are not commercially viable. There is a huge amount of cost involved in producing a barrel of oil that is not seen by the average consumer.

In West Texas we had thousands of wells that had been temporarily abandoned by companies because there was no way to justify spending the money to repair them and produce them in the 80's and 90's. With the higher prices per barrel of oil a large number of those wells have been repaired and are back to producing oil and gas(average production would be 5 barrels a day).

As to the assertion that all oil companies are thieves, I would suggest a close look at how the price of a barrel of oil is derived. As a commodity it is openly traded on the market and is no different than pork, beef, grain, citrus, etc. and the products are also traded and priced accordingly such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The price you see for a barrel of raw crude is based on the ability of the producer to deliver it to the doorstep of the refiner and in this day and age there are not that many refineries owned by a majority of the oil companies in the US.

While I am probably wasting my time typing this response it is a shame that most of you have not met or known the hard working people working in the oil fields, plants, refineries, and service sectors that provide labor, materials, and support to the energy sector as a whole. They are no different than anyone who works in any other industry in this country and many of them work in dangerous conditions and places that most of you would never even consider working in.

If memory serves, a new pickup would have cost me around $10,000 in 1990 and now that same truck today would run $25,000 to $30,000 now. I don't see anyone calling our auto industry a bunch of thieves.

All of our manufacturing base has environmental rules and regs that make the cost of business continue to go up. The last new refinery was built over 25 years ago and our demand for oil continues to go up. With the current regs it is economically not feasible to build additional refineries no matter the price per barrell. If you will look into it you find a large part of our refined products are imported, not just raw crude. It would not matter how much oil was available for refining, we simply do not have enough refining capacity to handle the volume. To demonstrate how tight refined supplies are just take a look at how a fire at a refinery that ranks 84th overall in the US caused prices to increase overnight. The refinery is located in Big Spring, Texas and is by no means a major supplier of refined oil products to the nation as a whole.

Go ahead and believe what you want, but the insults hurled at a sector that provides you with lights, heating, cooling, and fuel for your vehicles also are directed at a hard working part of our country that are trying to make a living.

To really address this topic would take a book to write and quite honestly I don't think it would be well received no matter what.

Flame away if you like. Back to lurking for a while. As a parting suggestion I would suggest more thoughtful and factual research into a very complex topic before branding an industry and its workers as thieves and robbers.


Rant done Gents.

wtxbadger

[deltecs]

I think I'm eminently qualified to speak on this subject as I related in earlier posts my family for generations worked PA oil.  I'm a power lineman and know exactly just what dangers and fuels our electric supply lines and the associated regs with them.  I'm also living in Alaska and have attended many meetings regarding oil production and preservation of the environment by oil company managers.  When they breach a contract and then propaganda the media with lies, errors and untruths to the consumers, so they look like stand up business citizens that is lies.  When the consumer pays for their mistakes in management and still take their due profit, that is theiving.  You can tell me all about how much money you derive from oil and i'll tell you how much oil has cost the american people.

[jamesrus]

OK working in the oil industry as i do and have done for the last 16 years, there is plenty of oil out there, plenty of oil already "discovered, drilled, tapped, and capped"  I also live in the middle of what used to be a huge natural gas field in north central Louisiana. Over the years those wells were slowly shut down and capped also. Now that natural gas is going through the roof, its amazing to see how those previously un-viable wells are being re-equipped and starting to pump again.  Oh and the here it comes...the carburetor that makes 100 miles per gallon.....Well go ahead and laugh, Studebaker built a truck in 1951 that would out pull and out work both ford and Chevy. And did i mention that it got 48 miles to the gallon? In 1951?  On A SINGLE BARREL carb AT THAT. how do i know this? because my grandfather still owns his, bought brand new off the showroom floor. I have to take him to his cancer doctor in it because it get better gas mileage than his "new" car. Even with no air conditioning he wont go in his car at all.  Oh and with 273,000 miles on it...it still gets 45 miles to the gallon on regular.  This country is capable of producing way more oil than we do, the Chevron Empire Pipeline Pumping station in south Louisiana below New Orleans is only working at 75 percent capacity since Katrina...why you ask? Hmmmm i wonder. It has been totally rebuilt up to current standards. Not the standards from when it was first built in the 70's. Also ...how can gas at a pump 1 mile from the refinery it comes from cost....oh 3.12 per gallon, and 500 miles north after the cost of transportation through river barges, tank trucks, train tank cars, etc. does it still cost 3.12?  Can anyone say "PRICE FIXING"? California dont want more refineries? GOOD let them pay the 5 dollar a gallon prices. I dont mind them, ill just get sick with cancer and die...oh well, ill be able to get carried to my grave in style in a big ole car in a large wooden box that costs slightly more than my grandfathers house he built in 1956. So dont pat me on the head and say shhhhh....this will only hurt a little......... I make  enough money my family and i should be able to live comfortably and not want for anything....But the 600 to 700 dollar gas bills every month hurt.

Jamesrus