Recession

[oldandslow]

OK, the results are out. We are not in recession as we stood at .6% economic growth. Guess G.W. got it right the other day when he said we were in a period of slow growth. It was actually the same as the last quarter of 2007. Want to bet the national media keeps up their drum beat of recession until the elections this fall?

[dukkillr]

The numbers you cite are based on first quarter 2008.  Wait until first quarter 2009 before making any claims about the possibility of a recession.  Remember that a short recession can often be over before you ever knew you were in it.  I would not be surprised if we do indeed have a short recession in the middle half of this year.

[sdb777]

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters showing negative growth.

Why do I need to wait until 2009?  The last two quarter have shown growth, therefore no recession.  Unless they are teaching some kind of new math in schools now....after all, I did graduate in the mid 80's.


Scott (now if we're talking about rice shortages) B

[oldandslow]

Sdb, i graduated in '56 and my math agrees with yours. I knew some one would question this though.

By the way, The dollar went up today and the stock market broke 13,000 for the first time since January. Lots good news, huh?

[dukkillr]

OK, the results are out. We are not in recession as we stood at .6% economic growth. Guess G.W. got it right the other day when he said we were in a period of slow growth. It was actually the same as the last quarter of 2007. Want to bet the national media keeps up their drum beat of recession until the elections this fall?

Your quote = "We are not in a recession"...

If we are in a recession right now, you wouldn't know it.  See you won't know what the 2nd quarter (the quarter we're in right now) numbers are until oh, say, July or August.  So by then you will know if we were in a recession as of May 1, 2008.  Don't you understand that the numbers they use to define economic growth trail the actual dates by several months?

You can go on with your political agenda, i have no problem with that... but to set the record straight, you (nor I) have any factual basis to know if we are in a recession as of today or not.  Take your smug math talk somewhere where no one is smart enough to know better.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

Most important quote:
"Because of the way a recession is defined, the beginning (peak in the economic cycle) or end (trough) of a recession can only be identified after the change in the trend has been present for several months.
The 2001 recession was announced by the NBER in November 2001[8], which later turned out to be the true. Thus the recession ended the month it was announced by the NBER. In July 1981 the NBER declared an end to a six-month recession from January to July 1980, the last year of Jimmy Carter's presidency. For the 1981-82 recession, which was during President Reagan's first term, the NBER announced the July 1981 peak in January 1983, and the November 1982 trough in July 1983.[9]"

Now, do I need to go on or can we agree that you were wrong?

[ms]

Don't believe those numbers here in Michigan we are in recession.

[beemanbeme]

If we have a recession and nobody notices, does that mean we have or have not had a recession?  It seems that what shape the economy is in, who is winning the war, and so forth, depends on which side of the aisle you're on and which spin doctor you're listening to. 

Can we have a recession in Michigan and not in Oklahoma?  I don't know if WV is recessed or regressed?  We have the poorest schools, lowest achievers, lowest per capita income but the ones working want to use NYC as a viable wage comparison.  Plus the Univ of WV has to spend $20,000 on a special panel to find out if a student graduated or not. Maybe that's why they can't figure out the ex football coach's contract. 

[sdb777]

Take your smug math talk somewhere where no one is smart enough to know better.

Thought personal attacks were against the Code of Conduct?


I asked a simple question, and get mouthed at by a "Moderator'........I have thick skin, but you should re-think your the way you speak to people.





Scott (don't think I'll be back to this forum) B

[oldandslow]

MS, I'm sorry to hear that. I've been thru three of those "most of the country is doing good but we are suffering here" times and it is rough.

Bemanbeme, I suppose we can. I really don't know what conditions are in Michigan or Oklahoma. I would suppose OK is in good shape because of it's oil production. In the Permian Basin of west TX and S.E. NM times are rosy. Unemployment stands at about 2.2 % for the area and is 1.8% for Lea Co. NM according to the latest figures out about two weeks ago. I wish the whole country could be like that.

Durkiller, I simply reported what was on the news and had no political agenda. No, I won't agree that I was wrong and you have no evidence to prove I was. We both will have to see what happens in the coming months to tell. I won't respond to any more of your belittling posts. You have a right to disagree with me but you certainly need some education on your communication skills. I won't lower myself to your standards on a public forum.

[dukkillr]

Durkiller, I simply reported what was on the news and had no political agenda. No, I won't agree that I was wrong and you have no evidence to prove I was. We both will have to see what happens in the coming months to tell. I won't respond to any more of your belittling posts. You have a right to disagree with me but you certainly need some education on your communication skills. I won't lower myself to your standards on a public forum.

Reread what has been said since the beginning - I'll summarize and then we'll reach the correct conclusion:
Your first post: We grew slowly in the first quarter of 2007 - we're not in a recession - liberal media won't give my favorite president any credit (see how you have a political agenda?)
My Post: You can't know that we aren't in a recession because the data trails.  Your data only says that we weren't in a recession in Q1 2007
Your second post: I took math, I know what I'm saying is right. 
My second post: Here is a definition that says you can't know if we are in a recession now.  It clearly makes your first statement incorrect. 
Your third post: I'm incapable of admitting I was wrong in the face of evidence so I'm going to act offended.  In addition I will say that, "We both will have to w[ai]t and see..."

Which, of course, is what I said in the first post.  You have to wait and see.  Note that I didn't say "We ARE in a recession" I can't know that.  I can guess... lots of really smart economists are guessing right now... but no one will know until at least several months have past. 

This wasn't supposed to be something personal... I was simply trying correct a misconception that is common right now. 

[dukkillr]

MS, I'm sorry to hear that. I've been thru three of those "most of the country is doing good but we are suffering here" times and it is rough.

Bemanbeme, I suppose we can. I really don't know what conditions are in Michigan or Oklahoma. I would suppose OK is in good shape because of it's oil production. In the Permian Basin of west TX and S.E. NM times are rosy. Unemployment stands at about 2.2 % for the area and is 1.8% for Lea Co. NM according to the latest figures out about two weeks ago. I wish the whole country could be like that.

Durkiller, I simply reported what was on the news and had no political agenda. No, I won't agree that I was wrong and you have no evidence to prove I was. We both will have to see what happens in the coming months to tell. I won't respond to any more of your belittling posts. You have a right to disagree with me but you certainly need some education on your communication skills. I won't lower myself to your standards on a public forum.

I was reminded of this post the other day...  Here's an interesting link:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/?postversion=2008120115

Most important section:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007, making official what most Americans have already believed about the state of the economy .

The NBER is a private group of leading economists charged with dating the start and end of economic downturns. It typically takes a long time after the start of a recession to declare its start because of the need to look at final readings of various economic measures.

[nomosendero]

Some of the slower times "since 2007" was regional actually. The area where I sell Industrial equipment was booming until Oct. of this year, in fact until Oct. this was the best year I ever had & I have been doing this
for 22 years. Ind. orders have backed off alot since Oct & no doubt NOW we are in a World Wide Recession.
It doesn't take a rocket sc. to know why this "since 2007" stuff which did not amount to much since we had to wait on the MEDIA to tell us is coming up now, but we need to deal with the here & now, the next 2 years will be a tough regardless, but most likely the Libs will make it much worse with HIGHER taxes, capital gains & new & wonderful regulations, they might be able to stretch this thing out longer & with more punch
if they can just work together. And BTW, Bush did not help at all & has hurt alot.

[gypsyman]

This reminds me of going to the doctor. By the time you get in, with a cold, your almost over it. By the time the ''EXPERTS'' say, hey, we're in a recession, we'll be in the middle of a depression.  gypsyman

[Heather]

This reminds me of going to the doctor. By the time you get in, with a cold, your almost over it. By the time the ''EXPERTS'' say, hey, we're in a recession, we'll be in the middle of a depression.  gypsyman

Great analogy, couldn't have said it better myself!

Heather