McCain to Drop Out...? This Author Thinks Yes

[TM7]

With Obama popularity rising amidst decline in the Bush neocon machine, GOP insiders may force McCain to step out of the race if they really wan to win. This may be even a more important strategy if Obama picks Gen Wesley Clark as his running mate.  The article follows...fyi.....TM7
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When McCain Drops Out Steve Rosenbaum
Sun Jun 15, 11:20 PM ET
 
When the Republicans choose their candidate on September 4th, there is a very real chance that they could throw the election into an unexpected chaos as they pull a genuine September Surprise.

  I think there is every reason to believe John McCain won't be the nominee. Ok, let me say that again. McCain will not be the Republican candidate in November.

Here's how it could happen:

At some point in mid August, John McCain will announce that he has decided that he can not accept his party's nomination for president. The reason will be health-related, and that may turn out to be the truth. Anyone who's seen him on stage these days knows he looks like he's about to keel over. And anyone who's been on a presidential campaign knows the physical demands are grueling and can be a challenge for a young man.

But excuses or facts hardly matters. He won't be accepting his party's nomination.

The reasons are simple. He can't win. Now that Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee -- the polls all show that McCain's pro-war stance and Bush endorsement make him a lost cause in November. That combined with soft stand on litmus test conservative issues make him an unpopular candidate among the base. I know some Democrats that think the Republicans are planning to let McCain lose and 'sit this one out' so that they can hang the democrats with a bad economy and a war that is a morass. But that just isn't how they play. They play to win every hand -- think about 2000 with a popular Democratic president and good economy and a solid VP running for president. Why did they put up Bush? And why did they fight so hard? Because, you don't ever throw a game. And they're not going to throw this one.

McCain won't be the nominee.

By August, they'll have done something to try and pick away at Obama's popularity. They'll emphasis race, or whatever they can to get him to appear less than perfect. Then, they'll bring out of the woodwork a surprise candidate who can shift the story fast. With just two months before the election -- the new candidate will have little time to be 'vetted' but will be shiny and new, and will get a lot of media attention as Obama's newness will have become -- by then -- tarnished or at least no longer the surprise that it has been as he unseated Hillary.

So, who will be the Republican candidate that faces Obama in the fall?

I've spoken to a number of friends who -- when presented with this set of facts respond: "but they don't have anybody else." That's simply not the case.

Joe Trippi, campaign consultant and most notably Howard Dean's campaign manager, said of McCain dropping out: "While crazy, this may be the best shot they have."

There are a whole list of Republicans who in many ways are more likely to energize the Republican base. One thing is certain -- there are candidates that will play to the core issues in ways that McCain simply can't.

Here's a list of names. Some you know, some you don't. But each of them knows their name is in play. Among them --

Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State)
Colin Powell (fmr Sec. of State)
Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado Congresswoman)
Mitt Romney (fmr Massachusetts Governor)
Mike Huckabee (fmr Governor of Arkansas)
Charlie Crist (Florida Governor)
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor)
Bobby Jindal (Louisiana Governor)
Mark Sanford: (Governor of South Carolina)
John Thune (Senator from South Dakota)
Dick Lugar (Senator from Indiana)
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska)
MIchael Bloomberg (NYC Mayor)

Ok, go ahead knock them down. One by one. See if you can really remove ALL these names from a list of candidates that are more likely to give Obama a run for his money. They'll come on the scene late, with a press corps that is looking for a horse race and a new story. Obama's frontrunner status will be upset, and there will be a set of variables that need to be calculated -- and tested against a weary electorate.

Is this supposition? Sure, but one grounded with enough history and observation to take it beyond conjecture and into the realm of the possible.

So -- before the Democrats go and game out how to beat McCain, it may be worth thinking about what happens when he says he won't accept the nomination. For the Republicans, a wide open convention would be both good theater and good politics

[SHOOTALL]

NO ROSS ?

[Sitting Duck]

The only person that makes sense for this country is not even on your list.  Ron Paul.  Many say he can't or couldn't win.  But he could if the party got behind him. 

We need drastic change in this country.  Not the status quo with a feel good tweak here and there.

McCain was a basically out-of-the-running early on in the race.  Then, all of a sudden, he was back leading the pack.  This is the Republican party and the media orchestrating our politics and future for us.  Freedom of choice... Yeah, right!

I said before that the President really isn't the root of our problems.  The congress is.  However, the President could wield a veto pen over everything that came across his desk.  That would be a start.

Blind leading the blind.  It must be the American way.

[ironglow]

  You said "this author" but such is not identified ! Who is the author, you or Al Franken(stein) ?

[ms]

won't happen they want obama to win.

[BBF]

ironglow: He did mention the name of the author. it is not a "stein"but a "baum"

[gypsyman]

Funny, I just heard today that McCain and Obama are within 2-3 points of each other in the polls. Guess it just matters to who your listening to. gypsyman

[beemanbeme]

I have heard that Dr Rice is going back to academia.  Sort of a "will not run; if elected, will not serve" kinda thing

[ironglow]

 Dr Rice would like most, to be NFL commissioner.

[magooch]

I think it's much more likely that Osama Obamanation will be forced to drop out, after he goes into full self destruct mode.   This guy and the dolts around him haven't got a clue about the way the world really operates.  He's going to stick his foot so far into his mouth that he'll hopefully choke on it and save his party the trouble of taking him down.

On the other hand, I've pretty much lost all faith in the wisdom of our electorate and my greatest fear is that we are about to get the government that the majority deserves.  It's going to be a hoot either way, so I'm just going to watch the poop hit the blower and try to stay out of the way.

[ironglow]

  So far he has been spouting "party lines" and cliche's . At some point he may have to face his opponent in a venue where he must think for himself. Can he even make any policy statements without having Howard Deane, Harry Reid or George Soros..plugged   into his right ear ? ?

[ironglow]

Whoops ! ..sorry; I didn't see the name listed.
    If anything, I think it is wishful thinking on Rosenbaum's part..in any case I can't read his mind, but I think it highly unlikely that McCain should just "cut & run".
  Cut & run is just not his style, as proven in the Hanoi Hilton..On the other hand, "cut & run" has become the Democrat's nickname !

  Yes; McCain is just another"Country Club" Republican, as was Rockerfeller,Ford and Dole: and they didn't quit ! As poor as the choices are we are still faced
  with these choices:

   A) A country club, mildly liberal , brave and true-to-his- word Republican who has served his country honorably and taken some serious injuries as a bonus for
  hi loyal efforts !

      ..or
 
  B) A man who at best, distrusts and dislikes the US and whose wife thinks the US is a "mean nation" while both put Africa first..ahead of the US..
  And at worst..may be a Muslim "sleeper"..

[oldandslow]

Tm7, I opt for shooting the breeze. Actually he is a writer and gets paid to write so he was probably just earning his pay whether it amounted to anything or not.

Magooch, I agree that Obama does't have a clue but when has that been a requirement for a polition to get elected to office? This applies for the local city commission all the way to the president of the United States. I though that when the democrats nominated Kerry they had scraped the bottom of the barrel but they still had a way to go didn't they?

[torpedoman]

pure B.S.

[powderman]

pure B.S.

YEP. Leave it to tm to come up with garbage like this. POWDERMAN. 

[BBF]

magooch: If Obama drops out or gets himself shot which I think is more likely between those two possibilities, who do you think will rise out of her ashes? She is a lot more dangerous IMO because it will not be so apparent where she goes as if Obama leads the herd.

[magooch]

I don't know how to begin to quantify who is the most dangerous between Hitlary and Osama.  Either one would be an unmitigated disaster for this country and not just for whatever length of time they might occupy the White House.  The next President will for sure be appointing some Supreme Court justices (assuming they survive more than a month, or so) and that will probably be the end of any chance for the court to return to sanity for decades to come.

Maybe I'm an optimist, but somehow I believe that it is possible if the people are truly ignorant enough to elect Osama, maybe the Dumbycrat Party will fall apart.  I hate what that party has become, but I still can't believe that all of the people and politicians who are members, or think of themselves as jackasses are going to follow that third world big mouthed idiot into oblivian.  Even my own hard-cored Dumbycrat Representative did a 180 on his outrageous party and now supports the continuation of and successful completion of the surge in Iraq.  This isn't the only issue where he took a completely opposite position from his party's leadership.  There's got to be a lot more like him around the country.

Where are all the good assassins when you need one?

[billy_56081]

"Where are all the good assassins when you need one?"


Ask Hitlary, now I have no evedence or anything at all to attach this to the Klintons but there are claims that Tim Russert's hard questioning of Hitlary caused her to lose the nomination? Who knows just a coincidence?

[ironglow]

  Hmmmm Billy..Would that be # 65 or #68 ?...LOL

[bkraft]

The GOP will stick with McCain simply because it has no other viable choice. What they are hoping for is that enough upper class white women will not be able to bring themselves to vote for Obama for whatever reason. So McCain is the safe bet, not so conservative as to scare off any crossover disenchanted Fem/Dems, nor, so liberal as to drive away the hard core, neo cons. IMHO the most important decision for the GOP is McCain's V.P. I honestly do not see John surviving. He has had too hard a life. What didn't happen to him when he punched out of that Sky Raider over Hanoi, the bell hops at the local Hilton saw to.
As far as possible V.P.s go, Romney is the safe bet, Huckabee the smart bet, but the choice of true vision would be Gingrich. Smart, well educated I'm tellin ya "that dog would hunt."

[magooch]

I absolutely agree that this time around, the VP candidate could be more important than ever before and for sure it is John McGore's only possible "ace-in-the-hole."  I wish I had faith that John will choose a good one.  Of those who are well enough known--as of now--Romney probably looks the best.

McGore's problem is that almost anyone he chooses will probably make him look like yesterday's bad news, and they'll have to hide the VP candidate to keep McGore from being lost in the new guys shadow.

[nomosendero]

McCain might pick Lieberman...if he's still in it.

Obama might pick Wesley Clark


..TM7

I think Obama should pick Rosie, then the Races, Sexual Orientation, Women, fat people & thin would be equally represented. 

[bkraft]

Obama if he is smart, and that remains to be seen should pick the Gov. of Kansas; Sibelius. A nice bland white lady with a fair track record in her home state. I mean come on people, she won two terms in a state that can be described as the "buckle of the bible belt." She has no dirty laundry to be aired in public, she's a liberal Catholic, she's a woman and she's white. What more could the Fem/Dems want? She would ease the sting of Hilary being fed to the beast, and make it easier for the luxury liberals to vote for "the help."
Being a life long resident of Kansas I can honestly say that her biggest asset is, like a good corner back in football she doesn't make the "big mistake." Very middle of the road, does not take a stand in other words a politician.
People of Grey Beard Outdoors what we all long for are Statesmen, what we got are politicans. Why do we cling to religion and guns? Maybe it's because that whenever the chips are down and the deed to the ranch is on the table Jesus Christ and Sam Colt are all ya got left and I'll take those two any day over a politician and clear to the gates of Hell.
Sorry about the rant.

[torpedoman]

I will not vote for a ticket that includes liberman under any circumstances

[lrs]

I can not see McCain dropping out.  This is the direction the blueblood rockefeller republicans want for the republican party.