First, what is the composition of the bullet? A hard cast bullet or a jacketed bullet won't bump up to fill the bore, and this can cause the tumbling. If you're buying lead bullets they are most likely hard cast, and if you're using jacketed they should fit the bore. Your bore should be .458 and the jacketed bullets made to fit, but I'd check that relationship first.
I don't shoot smokeless in the 45-70, so can't comment on the load, but I agree that the velocity sounds low, and that can cause tumbling if the bullet isn't stabilized.
by the way, the heavy crimp issue is with the 405 gr bullet or smaller and BP. The issue is that the bullet isn't heavy enough to allow complete ignition of the powder before it leaves the cartridge. The 500 gr. lead bullet does not require this heavy crimp with BP. I doubt that this will be an issue with 3031.