My opinion - it should be great! I like carbines!
When the 7mm-08 hit the market in a carbine, a lot was written about FPS loss due to short barrel. I read in one of the magazines of the time an extensive handloading project resulting in very close ballistics to factory ammo in a 22" barrel. You are a handloader, so with your Chrony and some development, you should be able to close the gap on your expected loss of fps and be very happy.
My 8mmx57 carbine (18") will run very close to the big guys with BallC2, H335, IMR3031, and on. Just read Al Miller's article on the 8mmx57 in Rifle magazine and my Chrony records are very close to his velocities, but not with the same powders. It took a lot of research, but sure was fun to see that Chrony light up with those neat numbers that tell me I've arrived! I don't get the performance out of slow powders that the long-barrel guys get, but the short barrel can tweak the most out of quicker powders and keeps me very happy!
My Dad's 30-06 wears a 20" Barrel. It has a tight chamber and runs factory ammo and our handloads the same as my Remington 700 with a 22" barrel - velocities are less than 20fps different - that equals no difference.
Good luck with your project and let us know what happens.
Regards,
Sweetwater