Ammo, firearm, and component shortages

[Oldshooter]

Tell us what you really think! I dont know for sure, I have my guesses but I'm having trouble figgering the root causes. This is lasting too long I fear a plot, like the energy crisis!

[FourBee]

I'm having trouble figgering the root causes.

 

A short answer:   National Repentance - - - - - - -

We were once called a Christian Nation.   Now they say we are a Post Christian Nation.

We are told by the Scriptures ~ If my people, which are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray, and turn from their wicked ways, and seek my face, then will I hear from heaven and forgive their sins and heal their land.

Lu 10:13 ~if the mighty works had been done in Tyre and Sidon, which have been done in you, they had a great while ago repented, sitting in sackcloth and ashes.

Will we defy tradition, and turn back to God now, or continue our downward journey to rock bottom before we look up?

[Sourdough]

We can only pick one, but I think there are more than one factor.  Stocking up by the citizenry, and the drug cartels buy large amounts of ammo for their war in Mexico.

[LONGTOM]

I do know that the ammo MFGs are busy supplying the military, but I think it is the Scared public buying out of fear of future.

This same thing happened back in the early 80s ? with primers.
You just couldn't find them anywhere because they were being used to fill orders for the military.
As soon as the ammo MFGs caught up there were all the primers you could ever want.
There was the rumor that the new primers being made would have an exporation date in them and after that untold date they would go bad.
All a bunch of bull but the public bought into it and started hording them just as they are doing now.
Only thing different now is they are hording everything from primers to powder to brass to bullets.

If they stopped making ammo or components today I would not live long enough to use up my supply that I have collected over the years.
Not from hord buying just from picking up what was cheap at the time.
Unless you shoot in heavy competition just how many components do you use in a year.
I think the average person would say maybe a few hundred max!
Then why would you go out and pay a preminum for thousands of them now?
Nothing wrong with buying in bulk to save $$$ but buying 10,20 30 thousand primers at a time, you have got to be kidding!

Give it time and I think it will all be back to normal.
Pick up what you need but stop panic buying!


LONGTOM

[Oldshooter]

The problem I have with the scared public arguement is that everyone here says there aint any and the prices are too high etc etc If we were the problem "we" not buying would solve it and we aint buying are we?

Seriously, I'm leaning to the manufacturer thing, if they are selling all they can make why aint they makin more? Ya think they like the price being high?

Ive heard that they are in full swing production but we aint seeing it! out in retail land!

[Redhawk1]

People need to get off the Mexican drug cartels. They get there guns and ammo mostly from there own Government. Fully automatic AK 47 and AR 15 are not sold like the stupid media are saying.

The only thing driving the low ammo shortage is public hoarding.

[TribReady]

I voted public hoarding, but I also believe the mfgr's have a roll by being content to limit production to keep prices up.
Eventually supply and demand will even out, prices will come down, shelves will be full again..............or the SHTF and all of us with large amounts will be "ready"   Either way, the current situation won't continue, imo.

[FourBee]

Today; MidwayUSA e-mailed me about some bullets they'd just received.  I called to place my order.  Was told that shipment was already gone, but they were expecting another by the end of the month.    This has been going on for awhile now.

[MGMorden]

I'm thinking personally that it's MOSTLY "scared public".

I'll admit that for my part, with the economic crisis looking so grim, and current administration being what it is, I'm buying at least 1 box of ammo every week.  So far a lot of .22LR, but I'm trying to keep a good supply of other stuff too.  I've also been scrounging range brass from the local public range. A buddy recently gave me about 200lbs worth of lead (it's some type of lead sheeting used in construction) that I'm looking to pour into ingots soon.  I figure out of the amount I have that I could get an insane number of bullets cast out of it.

I think I'm going to start stocking on my power and primers soon too.  I'm really considering purchasing a decent supply of fishing  line and hook/lures (though I've got almost a lifetime supply of these already) as well.

Call me paranoid, but I want to be prepared. Me, my brother, and my parents all live within a few miles of each other, and if worse comes to worse as long as SOMEBODY manages to keep a job, we'll not be homeless, and beyond that I think between the garden and everything else we can make it.

Hell it's a bit goofy, but each week I've also been buying a book or two and sticking it aside.  The basic stuff at first - The Art of War, Gray's Anatomy, Einstein's Relativity, Plato's Republic, etc.   In the event that we end up having to drop the power I want to have a good library to fall back on.  Books cost nothing to "operate" once you have them, as opposed to almost every other form of information these days which requires electricity at a minimum.

[Blackhawker]

I totally agree with LongTom.

People are like lemmings.....and watch too much T.V.  We see stupid and unrealistic things on television, we hear crazy rumors on the news or read them in popular magazine articles and we (well, the general public anyway) join the bandwagon out of fear or shear stupidity.  I give you an example:  Just look at the vehicles people drive around you.  Does ANYONE (except maybe a construction worker or rancher) need a Ford Excursion?  Or for that matter, does anyone need a Cadilac Escalade or a Lexus EX-"expensivo"?  HELL NO!  But why do we see them all over the place?  Because Hollywood shows them as being cool and everyone stupidly thinks that they've gotta have one or they won't be cool.  And who gave these people the loans to get these vehicles and houses that they really don't need??  I mean, come on....how do you clean a 50 room house?  Give me a break America!!  Half the economic problem in our country is our own fault because we are following the lemming in front of us and doing what the "Jones's" are doing.  Then when things don't go right, we whine and blame our government or someone else.  I say, take a look around you and take a good look in the mirror.  Do we really need half of the crap we own?  Hell NO!  (and I'm not claiming that I'm not guilty of this either)

OK...I digressed a bit...sorry.  Now back to the guns and accessories.  Like Tom said....why does someone need 20,000 primers??  They don't!  Heck, the darn things will go bad before you use em! 
As Tom suggested, if people would stop hoarding things, everything on the store shelves will be there and in stock once again.  The war isn't causing the problem, the Mexicans aren't causing the problems, the gangs aren't causing the problems, heck...even Obama and his bunch (dare I say) aren't causing the problem.  WE are causing our own problem.  If all of us would take that extra money we have and that we use on hoarding ammo and accessories and put it toward a contribution to the NRA or the ILA we wouldn't have to worry so much.

OK, I'll get off my soap box now.  I know I've probably been preaching to the choir here anyway.

[Oldshooter]

Well said pardner, sometimes things just have to be said!

[kix]

  All I know is that over a month ago I bought a nice custom Mauser .257 Roberts and I'm still looking for brass! Midway has so many back-orders they're not accepting any more!  Help!   Kix

[FourBee]

Here we are discussing this shortage, and my local TV NEWS this evening is covering this subject and interviewing one of the cities popular sporting goods stores.    

The Ammo Department can't keep up with customer demands.   A recent restocking just sold out, and this morning's reply from their Distributor said he was out also.  

[briarpatch]

Here longtom is talking about someone hoarding ammo and in the same sentence says he could not use all his in a life time. Why can he have it  and its not hoarding but no one else can.
Why does people bitch about not being able to buy ammo because someone else got to it first. Were you not going to buy it if you got to it first.  And don’t hand me this carp. I was just going to buy one little bullet and no more.
There no such thing as hoarding if you want a thousand rounds buy it. We work to buy what we want, not what someone wants us to have.
I hear two type of people bitching about the shortage of ammo. Those that have a big pile laid up and want to point fingers at someone for doing what they do. And those to lazy or ill advised to get and keep a supply.
 

[LONGTOM]

Well briarpatch let me set you straight on why mine isn't hording.

The difference is that right now people are rushing out and buying up all they can as fast as they can.
This is causeing a shortage and then everyone gets scared that there might not be anymore so they rush out and panic buy that much more.

I have no problem with a person having as much as they want, be it a few hundred rounds or many thousands of rounds.
That is their privilege, but I don't expect them to acquired
them all in a few weeks when there is a shortage of them right now.

That's right I have a life time supply that was acquired
over 37 years at a box or a few at a time.
I also collect firearms with enough to fill several safes as an investment and for the shear joy of owning and shooting them.
This also has taken me the better part of 40 years.
Does this mean I am hording the fire arms also.

Get real man!

I think all on GBO can see the difference.


LONGTOM

[Blackhawker]

And if you were a dealer or store manager, wouldn't you think to yourself:  "Hmmm, with all of these people buying, buying, buying, maybe I'll just raise my prices."  And don't you think that the next store is going to think and do the same thing?  I recall in the 80's (as Tom already pointed out) when we had a so called shortage in primers like this, the price of a box of 1000 primers was about $12.00.  In a period of about 4 months, while the shortage hype was going on, the price of a box went up to about $20.00 to $22.00.  That's nearly a doubling in price....all because of a bunch of people who thought that the "end of the world" was coming or some hype they heard from some democratic news broadcast.  Now primers are all the way up to $35.00 per 1000....and that's just standard primers, not bench rest or anything fancy.  If all of the "hoarding fools" keep this stuff up, the stores will just jack the price up to $70.00 per 1000.  Where are we all gonna be then?  I'll tell you where; right where the anti-gunners want us, with no primers and no ammo to shoot because none of us will be able to afford it.

It's real simple.  If you buy like a fool, the dealers will just jack up the price.  Isn't that what you would do if you were selling a product that you couldn't keep on the shelves?  And if a person thinks that they're gonna store up as much ammo and guns as they can and be the "last man standing" or some foolish thing like that (which will never happen), sadly, he/she doesn't realize that an army of one man only exists in Hollywood and his/her big ideas have screwed the rest of us over.

By the way Tom, what you are referring to is the "Lemming effect" when everyone gets scared and starts binge buying.  One fool follows the other over the cliff.  Unfortunately, in this case it hurts everyone, not just the bandwagoners.  If you guys want to see the prices go sky high to the point that none of us will ever afford to shoot again....go ahead, but you might as well join up with the anti-gunners while you're at it. 

[LONGTOM]

I have been pretty good for quite awhile on here but that one struck a nerve.

With the prices the way they are the last 6 to 12 months I can tell you that I have only bought a few boxes of ammo.
Mostly to put back what I have used over the summer on groundhogs, foxes, yotes and last fall on my main diet of deer and squirrels.

I don't shoot paper much anymore, only to test a load or to sight in a scope or to check the zero on one I have already set up.

Back in the 80s when the primer scare was on I didn't have to buy many because I had a pretty good supply on hand so I could weather the panic storm and last until the prices came back down
I am the same way now with the ammo prices.

Now, just like back in the 80s, there were those who saw what was about to happen and was ready for it so they would not have to pay the inflated prices caused by a panic buy mentality.
We all had time to stock up if they would have been paying attention to what was happening.
A slow build up over time is not hording.

Sure some got caught unaware or a little low on supplys, that happens, but you buy what you need to get you through and weather the storm.

I guess i should appoligse (?spelling) to briarpatch for jumping on him.
I think he did not realize just how long some of us have been in this game.


LONGTOM

[Blackhawker]

It's just "bad weather" and it'll pass if everyone can keep their pants on.  Tom, I remember the 80's too.  Fortunately, I had a box or so of primers to hold me over.  I think it was the prices that kept me from buying a bunch here and there but unfortunately, they never went back down.  I do recall, however, that it was the new comers to the whole gun and shooting thing that seemed to cause the problem when there were other scares...like the assult weapons ban or Brady bill.  People who never owned a gun or even thought of buying one went out and foolishly bought whatever they could at whatever price.  Some people bought some real crap for a premium price because they were so new to the game and didn't really know what they were buying. 

Hopefully this well all clear up and the "bad weather" will subside.  But we all just have to keep our cool. 

In a long run, I think sometimes this makes for better shooters and it separates the real shooters from the "fad" shooters too.  In my "younger" days of shooting, I really got into throwing as much lead down range as I could.  When shortages and price increases come around, it tends to make one take a little more time when shooting.  Heck, now all I shoot are single shots....plus, the one shot now counts for thirty of what I used to shoot. 

[LONGTOM]

Yea man, I remember those days.
Back when I first started in the late 60s I had/still have a winchester pre 64 model 70 in 270 that I used for everything except small game.
I just sold most of the brass I shot up back then a month ago.
I don't remember how many there were but The man who bought it to resale is still running his tumbler.
If it moved it got a 270 through it.
You call the distance and I mostly would make the shot.
I still do a lot of long range shooting, mostly at groundhogs but will take a deer now and then at long range if everything feels right.
Oh no, I can here it coming, long range shots at deer is stupid.
That's ok.
I shot a yote tuesday evening while scouting for groundhogs at just over 425yds with the Handi 204.
Hit him in the neck just in front of the shoulders.
He never knew what hit him.
I held about 2 to 3" over the top of the neck.
What a mess for such a little round!

Back to what you were saying.
Back then some of those 270 boxes were marked $3.95.
Now that's cheap shooting.
Of course I wasn't making the kind of money you can make now a days, if you can find work!
Like you said, 1 for 30 now at $30.00 to $45.00 a box.
You make them count!


LONGTOM

[Blackhawker]

Hey, that's good shooting Tom!  425 yards!!

Ya know, I got to thinking;  first off it was right to apologize to briarpatch.  We don't want any bad blood here.  We're all in this together and should be fighting for our gun rights together.  That's why I think we should all pool our extra money and make a donation to the NRA, but that's a different story. 

The second thing I wanted to say (and I'm not picking on you briarpatch, just showing the example here) is that we as Americans have this attitude that we MUST have what the guy next door has....or we must have what we see on TV or hear about is a new fad or whatever.  The example is that if Tom has slowly collected a huge stockpile of stuff over the past 30 years, why is it that everyone else suddenly has to have a huge stockpile too?  Can't we just say, "Wow, Tom's been at this for quite a few years and has managed to collect a lot of stuff." and leave it at that?  Why is it that we MUST suddenly acquire the same amount or more than the other guy just because the other guy has this or that?  Can't we just be satisfied with what we have or need? 

I think this is where our problem lies in America.....it's just plain GREED!  And it's not just ammo or primers, but it's in everything we do!  No wonder why so many other countries hate us.  As for the ammo and primers however.....if you think you're only gonna shoot maybe a thousand rounds this year, then buy 1,100, NOT 22,000!!  It's called good judgment and being sensible.  Anything else is carelessness, selfishness and more than anything, just plain wasteful.

Briarpatch, I don't mean anything toward you so don't take that wrong. I only used what you said as an example because I hear and have heard the same commentary from countless other people for years, especially when there is a gun/ammo shortage type crisis and the "feeding frenzy" begins.  You just happened to be the one to print it out here, that's all.

[Oldshooter]

No wonder why so many other countries hate us.

just a note( Those countries that hate us, hate us like someone hates the high school prom queen and the starting quarter back they just wish they were as prosperous) When you talk to the people they wish they were here! and if you mean the ragheads they just "HATE".

 Now that being said,  Hoarding and waste is not a good thing and you have a good point. I am still not sure that the shortage is individual hoarding. I have a stash of bullets for my rifles and some shotshells for the scatter guns but I dont think people like me are the problem. THERE IS SOMETHING GOING ON HERE. you can't tell me that there are a bunch of new gun owners, and they and the rest of us are buying everything up. What is someone gonna do with 10 AR's in semi auto. SOMEONE OR "SOMETHING" IS STOCKPILING. and I dont think its "joe public" No I could be wrong although I thought I made a mistake the other day but I was mistaken    Seems to me that there is just maybe a combination of several things to keep the market so bare and prices so high!

It may be as simple as the original buy(Obamma is coming) made the prices go up and the manufactuers liked it so they are keeping the prices up IDUNNO!

[LONGTOM]

I agree with about all you said.
I do know that my local class three dealer here in VA is one of the larger semi-auto AR dealers and he is selling them as fast as he can get them in.
The best day he had so far was something like 28 in one day and all to different buyers from fairly close around the area.
It just seems like everyone wants one while they can still get them.
Now I am not sure that is what is happening to the ammo and such.
I am sure a lot of people who haven't bought much in the past are buying a little heavier that they normaly would.
There are those though that are hording all they can get their hands on, or can afford!

I do know one small gun shop that is kind of a shister who has gotten several shipments in but only puts out a little at a time at an increased price and keeps telling everyone that it is hard to get to keep the public in the panic mode.
I have called him on this practice and he denies it.

It will pass and soon there will be all you need.


LONGTOM

[Blackhawker]

Yup, you're right Oldshooter....the other countries hate us due to jealousy....which is basically the same thing as I'm explaining.  Everyone wants to be like the guy that has the most etc.  It's a world society of the "ER's".  We all want bigER, loudER, fastER, richER, bettER, newER,...well, you get the idea.  

In the 80's people used to drive around with these yellow diamond shaped signs in their cars that said, "the one with the most toys wins".  I say, be wary of the man who has much and wants more.  His life is burdened with fear and he will stop at nothing to attempt to fulfill his greed, yet nothing can or ever will fulfill it.  He will take what he can get without thought and when he has taken all you have, he will try to take more.  (Hmm, sounds a little like the gun grabbers)

Yes, there is something going on here.  I think this time it all started during the elections when it appeared Obama was going to be our next president.  The gun/ammo feeding frenzy started then, just like it did when the Brady Bill came out and any other past gun restrictions/laws.  People get the idea that things aren't going to be available and they flock to the stores and buy everything and anything they can get their hands on .....and not what the actually NEED.  I ask the same question to you, "what IS someone going to do with 10 AR's?"  It seems crazy yet I know of people who have them.  I often wondered about that too.  One guy that I once knew acquired at least 10 different firearms within a year all around when the Brady Bill was originally past.  Prior to that, he was not a gun owner.  Personally, I thought he was a fool.

Every regular shooter has a "stash" of some sort and it's not these people who are the problem.  Typically regular shooters and people who have been around the sport a while keep a stash that is large enough to sustain them through a year's worth of their typical shooting.  It's the inexperienced shooters that don't really know what that is....how much will last for how long???  So, in response, they panic and buy up everything, only to find that they wasted a lot of money over nothing.

Give it time, I'm sure this will clear up.  The only thing that we'll have to deal with is price, because as history has shown, they never come back down.

All of this just gave me an idea:
It's too bad that the NRA couldn't set up a deal where prices and availability of items would be normal to NRA members.  This would allow prices to go WAY up and supplies to go WAY down to non supporters of the NRA.  At this day and age, I believe that EVERY and ANY gun owner should be a member of the NRA or some other legal channel for the backing of our second amendment and the right for us to own and use our guns.
What do you guys think?

[LONGTOM]

I like the idea on the NRA thing as long as it isn't just for new members only.
We older members like to save too!
That would be one way of getting new members to sing up though!


LONGTOM

[Blackhawker]

Yeah, ALL members get the discount and availability.  Non-members get the shaft!    This would force non-members to join and ultimately make all gun owners members....which in turn would really pi**-off the anti gunners.  (HA...try and stop that!) 

[Oldshooter]

Prior to that, he was not a gun owner.

Maybe thats whats up here! cause to keep this shrtage going, someone has to be buying a "poop" pot full as we say dwon here!

Odrama is gonna stop the buying soon I fear, he is gonna put a tax on "this stuff" that will make your head swim. he cant throw away the 2nd amendment but "they " have proven they can punish or extort with taxes or threat of such!

Its gonna be a long 2 years! and maybe 4 if we dont throw a wrench in the "machine" come 2010!

[LONGTOM]

In 2 years let's do our best to do just that and tell the government that enough is enough and we want our government back in our controll.
This time we will vote for change.
Not so much a change of policy but a change in the people who make up our congress!
LONGTOM

[DakotaElkSlayer]

  The shortage is primarily due to the "hoarding" of individuals...  A local Sportman's Warehouse got a powder shipment in...  A guy came in and asked what the limit was.  Since there wasn't a limit, he bought the ENTIRE shipment.  At my store, I had one customer come in every two to three days and buy a couple of hundred dollars worth of ammo each time.  Nothing for a customer that normally buys a box or two to now buy 10 to 12 boxes. 
  ATK just finished a large order for the French government...  They have something like 300,000,000 primers on backorder.  It will be months before they produce a run of .380 Auto.  It takes them 8 hours to switch the line to .380 and right now that line is producting 1,000,000 rounds of 9mm to try to keep up with demand.
  Got a phone call from the NRA two weeks ago...recording told me that Obama, before the campaign, stated he wanted a 500% tax on guns and ammo....alot of my customers told me about this "fact."  I did a little online research and found that Obama did say that....NINE YEARS AGO!!!  Emailed the NRA and asked if he said that more recently...not to their knowledge.  Sure nine years ago WAS before the election, but it was misleading at best.
  Yes, I do believe we will see a price jump anytime now...  The '09 pricing on ammo was the smalled price increase I have seen in at least four years.  The manufacturers would be fools if they don't jack up their wholesale prices to compensate for demand.

Jim

[DakotaElkSlayer]

Odrama is gonna stop the buying soon I fear, he is gonna put a tax on "this stuff" that will make your head swim. he cant throw away the 2nd amendment but "they " have proven they can punish or extort with taxes or threat of such!

...that talk sure is great for business!!!!

Jim

[LONGTOM]

DES:
Man not only are you and I (and a few others on here) on the same page on this one, I think we are on the same line in the paragraph as well!


LONGTOM