Author Topic: Clash for Klunkers  (Read 1251 times)

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Offline Questor

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Clash for Klunkers
« on: October 28, 2009, 04:15:16 AM »
None of the top 10 cars sold during the cash for klunkers program were GM or Chrysler. Since neither of these companies have a market for their small cars, the klunkers program only made things worse for GM and Chrysler by expanding the market for cars made by other makers.

On the other hand, the latest conservative estimates are that the government spent 65 billion dollars bailing out GM and Chrysler, which is an unfair subsidy that interrupts the market by creating an unfair advantage for GM and Chrysler. One of the possible consequences of this is that Ford may need to go on the government dole.

While all of the high profile hearings were happening in Washington about how much money to spend on these two companies to bail them out, Honda opened a new car manufacturing plant in Indiana.

There has been much fanfare about how the Chevy Volt will be a savior for GM. Cost will be about $40,000. It will be interesting to see how it sells, at that price. (I think it will be a flop because of the inflexibility of a purely electric car that has no gasoline option for extended trips.)

The estimates given by the Bush and Obama administrations, claiming that 3 million jobs would be lost if the bailouts did not occur, assumed that the entire US-based auto manufacturing industry would totally collapse, including all of its suppliers. There was no estimate put forth about job losses related to the much more plausible scenario where one or two big manufacturers went out of business.

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Offline skarke

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2009, 05:20:10 AM »
The Volt does have a gas back up, but it doesn't kick in until about 70 or 80 miles.  GM is recommending that the gas deterioration in the tank be addressed, thinking that a smaller gas tank might be best.

Gas at 2 gallons per day, 365 days per year (very conservative for commuters) at $2.50 per gallon is a little over $1800 per year, so payback for a comparably sized conventional car comparison will be 7 to 8 years.  At 4 bucks per gallon, shorter.

But, no tailpipe emissions for the most part, and a $3 empty to full charge is pretty cool.  I'm not a greeny, but I like the idea of electric cars, and with volume comes economies of scale.  When they get to 25K, I personally think that they'll sell like hotcakes.  Just look at the goofy looking Prius.  Those hippies buy Prius's like kids buy candy.

I'd like one, but not at 40K pricepoint.
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Offline skarke

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2009, 05:25:08 AM »
BTW, GM (government motors) is a travesty of capitalism.  In fact, its bailout is capitalism's antithesis.  That is what recessions are for.  I do believe, that the government has a critical role in monitoing the banking industry, since there is no gold standard.  Without backing, fancy investing techniques are nothing greater than Vegas gambling.  I just don't believe in Bank bailouts.  Again, it is anticapitalist.
Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it on to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children what it was once like in the United States when men were free.  Ronaldus Maximus

Offline Questor

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2009, 06:01:07 AM »
I like the Volt concept. I didn't think it had a gas backup because I don't recall seeing it referred to as a hybrid. It is an essential feature, though. I think it will probably do more for Prius sales than for Volt sales, though.

I think the Prius is one cool car that I like very much, it just doesn't fit my lifestyle right now.
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Offline Casull

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2009, 08:12:31 AM »
Quote
Gas at 2 gallons per day, 365 days per year (very conservative for commuters) at $2.50 per gallon is a little over $1800 per year, so payback for a comparably sized conventional car comparison will be 7 to 8 years.  At 4 bucks per gallon, shorter.

Don't forget to factor in several thousand dollars to replace those batteries at least one time during that 7 to 8 years (or the cost of the electricity).
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Offline MGMorden

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2009, 08:14:58 AM »
I like the Volt concept. I didn't think it had a gas backup because I don't recall seeing it referred to as a hybrid.

The marketing terms are getting confusing these days.  The Volt is what would logically seem to be a "hybrid", but that term already got labeled on cars that use a gasoline engine to directly drive the electrical motor.  In this case the gasoline engine is not used at all in shorter trips and so GM's marketing people have avoided calling it a hybrid.

From Wikipedia:

Quote
Since the current Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) definition of a hybrid vehicle states the vehicle shall have "two or more energy storage systems both of which must provide propulsion power, either together or independently", the company has avoided the use of the term "hybrid" when describing its Voltec designs. Instead GM describes the Volt as an electric vehicle equipped with a "range extending" gasoline powered internal combustion engine (ICE) as a genset and therefore dubbed an "Extended Range Electric Vehicle" or E-REV.   However, the combination of an internal combustion engine and electric motors in such a configuration is most commonly referred to as a plug-in series hybrid.

FWIW, like skarke, I'm VERY interested in the concept. I'm out of my teenage years.  I don't need a fast muscle car - just something to take me where I want to go.  Anything that saves on my gas bill is a plus.  That said, at the price point they're asking, I'm just not interested.  Get them to $20k or less and I'd start looking at one.

That said, I'd be willing to bet that Hyundai or Kia will hit that price point with a usable vehicle long before GM does. 

Offline Questor

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2009, 08:27:21 AM »
MGMorden:

Your idea that other manufacturers will become mainstream manufacturers of volt-mobiles first makes a lot of sense to me. I see the Volt as something that should have been released years ago. Had GM simply released it when it was ready, rather than having such a long period between the announcement and the reality, then it might have been more successful.  Most products with a lengthy period of anticipation don't do very well when they are finally released. Part of it is that the novelty wears off before the product exists.
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Offline teamnelson

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2009, 09:36:58 AM »
Heard this morning that there is a 3rd bailout in negotiations for GMAC, the financing entity, which would put us in the majority share holder seat for Government Motors. Questor made a good observation on how the $ for klunkers actually hurt GM; I'm guessing a good % of cars turned in on the program were GM products as well. Which means the collateral parts & service industries for GM were hit too, while Toyota & Honda parts & service got a windfall.

Given unemployment, recession, etc. I took a 40% hit to retirement, and managed to break even on my house before the bubble burst. Two soon to be in college, and I don't know where $2.50 a gallon is a norm, but we're over $3. Who has $40K for a commuter car? I spent $1200 on my commuter car, gets 30mpg.

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Offline skifastchad

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2009, 04:10:29 AM »
There is one positive result of the Cash for Clunkers program...

It took 99% of the Obama bumper stickers off the road!

Offline 95Road King

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2009, 04:27:45 AM »
I know a guy that has a Hybrid something. His battery went bad. New battery, $3800.00 !!! What a joke these cars are. At least for me anyway.

Offline Questor

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2009, 04:30:04 AM »
I look at total cost of ownership when buying a car. Fuel is only one component. If I can get a decent car that will last me 5 years for $5,000, cost about $1000 per year to maintain, and gets 20mpg, that's a good deal.
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Offline Dixie Dude

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2009, 05:01:59 AM »
For the Volt, the batteries will cost from what I read, about $8,000 to change out.  This is the Achiles heal of the electric, the battery life.  Germany meanwhile had 80% of their cars using diesel.  Their diesel cars are high mileage, and will last for years, and can be rebuilt far less than battery change out.  Also, you get 7 extra gallons of diesel per barrel of crude compared to gasoline.  Less imports, more mileage, and now they are cleaner.  Another thing about electrics besides the batteries.  What about the electric motors.  Brushes wear out, and the motors can burn out also.  What is the life of the motors?  What is the life of the batteries.  Diesel vehicle cost is about halfway between gasoline and hybrid.  It is a better compromise in the short term (next 20 years or so) until battery cost and longevity is solved.


Offline Questor

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2009, 05:21:09 AM »
I guess I just don't understand the operating principles of the Volt. If, for example, I were to take a 500 mile drive one day, the battery power would be exhausted in X miles. At approximately that point the power of the car becomes dependent on the gasoline engine, which seems to be a generator that charges the battery. In this sense it seems like a diesel-electric locomotive. What I do not understand is the efficiency of this system. Just with basic physics, we know that it will require enough energy from the gasoline engine to power the electric motor so that I can maintain a highway speed. This should be about the same amount of energy needed to propel a conventional gasoline car.

Is that right?

But for shorter trips of under X miles, the battery gets its power only from having been charged the night before.

Is that right?

Seems like an interesting approach for commuting. I like the idea.

But I also like durability and low cost of ownership, so it's got to be reliable.
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Offline Oldshooter

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2009, 05:24:57 AM »
BTW, GM (government motors) is a travesty of capitalism.  In fact, its bailout is capitalism's antithesis.  That is what recessions are for.  I do believe, that the government has a critical role in monitoing the banking industry, since there is no gold standard.  Without backing, fancy investing techniques are nothing greater than Vegas gambling.  I just don't believe in Bank bailouts.  Again, it is anticapitalist.

I'm hearing that the gov is saying that GM and Chryslerobamma motors is going to need more money from the governemnt or else they cant make it. Heard that yesterday on the radio news!
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Offline MGMorden

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2009, 11:30:48 AM »
What I do not understand is the efficiency of this system. Just with basic physics, we know that it will require enough energy from the gasoline engine to power the electric motor so that I can maintain a highway speed. This should be about the same amount of energy needed to propel a conventional gasoline car.

Is that right?

It's right, but you hit the nail on the head when you mention the efficiency of the system.

The conventional gasoline engine directly driving the car is slightly less efficient than a gasoline generator that drives an electric motor to propel the car (that's the traditional hybrid approach, which itself does get better gas mileage).

However, since the part actually driving the system is indeed an electric motor, naturally it can run off of any electricity it's provided - be that battery or from a generator.

The concept behind the Volt is pretty simple - give it enough battery to take it about 50 miles at a time.  Most (not all, but most) people drive that or less in their daily business.  So you can recharge it at night and stay on complete electricity.  However, we all know that occasionally we'll want to take a longer trip, and batteries alone won't work for that.  So, we fall back to a conventional fuel to take-up the slack.  The gasoline generator kicks on and takes the car the rest of the way. 

Also, as a benefit, since you can store excess energy via the battery, the engine needn't waste all that.  For example when a conventional engine is running (even in a traditional hybrid) if there's no battery, then any excess energy generated simple gets bled off as heat.  With a battery to store that however, the energy needn't be wasted. The engine might kick on for 45 minutes during which it drives your car and produces enough energe to recharge the battery too, so that after the 45 minutes it shuts back off for a while.  You can also look at things like regenerative braking.  Normally you tap the brakes and all your sped that you've built up gets bled off as heat from the pads touching the drum.  If regenerative breaking is used though some of that excess energy can be bled off back into the battery so that you reclaim some portion of the energy again.  It's not necessarily an efficient transfer, but it's better than nothing.

Again, at this point in time the Volt is still more expensive than it needs to be to make it worth it, but again, things get better in time.  We've had 100 years to perfect the traditional gasoline car.  Electric cars on a consumer scale are very, very new.  This is just early generation.  In time the price (of the cars and batteries) will come down, batteries will last longer, and ranges will improve, and overall the technology will improve.  So will the used market when the good electric cars start showing up there in 15-20 years. 

Again, it takes time, but I'd wager that when the batteries last on average 10 years, the replacement cost when they do fail is $1000, the charged range is up to 200 miles, and the initial cost of the car is $12,000 new with used ones on the market for half that, then a lot of us here will be looking at them pretty intently :).  Particularly since by that time I wouldn't be surprised if gas was up to $6 or $7 per gallon.

Bottom line though is that the amount of crude oil available to refine is a fixed quantity - one that is always decreasing.  Things like ethanol can be used as a renewable replacement (Brazil is largely running off ethanol but they make theirs from sugarcane, which yields better volumes than the corn we normally use), but it's not enough to act as the sole fuel.  With the population steady growing we also are going to come to a point eventually when the farm land is simply more valuable producing food rather than fuel.  The answer is to look for a way to relegate chemical fuels to a minimal role - using them as a stopgap only.  That's the most sustainable solution long term.  We just have to wade through the hiccups at the start of that trend to reap the benefits later :).

Offline Questor

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2009, 12:03:58 PM »
Pastorp:

The reasons you gave are why these alternative fuels are exciting. I think the Prius is mature as a technology. That's the one I like best. I'd just like it bigger and less expensive.
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Offline 95Road King

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2009, 01:00:11 PM »
I guess for a 2nd car they'd be ok?? Me, I like big engines to pull my camping trailer, or to pull my boat, or to put into 4 wheel drive when hunting!! So I guess when these things really catch on, I'll be punished with sky high fuel prices and any other thing the Lib's can think of!!!! I guess at my age(72) I'm just not with the time's??? >:( >:(

Offline teamnelson

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2009, 01:12:07 PM »
Heard on the radio today that $ for Clunkers cost the American Taxpayer $24,000 per car; that's per auto industry analysis. And the average price of the cars purchased was not much higher than that amount. Talk about some serious overhead in the administration of benefits. 600%

Parallel to that, the first time home buyer credit of $8,000 costs us on average $43,000 per home bought, assuming 85% of those taking the credit were not already going to buy a house. I guess overhead on that is better, only 500%+ !

Told my kids when you take advantage of a free government program, ask yourself which and how many of your neighbors are paying for it, and either don't or at least be grateful, not jealous or feel entitled.
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Offline MGMorden

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2009, 02:36:26 PM »
I guess for a 2nd car they'd be ok?? Me, I like big engines to pull my camping trailer, or to pull my boat, or to put into 4 wheel drive when hunting!! So I guess when these things really catch on, I'll be punished with sky high fuel prices and any other thing the Lib's can think of!!!! I guess at my age(72) I'm just not with the time's??? >:( >:(

Not really the liberals (I always try to avoid shortening to "libs" as it's too easy to confuse with Libertarian, which is a very different group from Liberals :)).  Well, aside from tax hikes anyways (which they admittedly do do from time to time).  Mostly though it's just economics.  As with all things price is a function of supply and demand.  With gas demand keeps going up (particularly with other countries like China starting to use more and more of it) and the supply (at least of the raw material that becomes gasoline) has been going down ever since we figured out it could make a piston move :).

The 1900's were when we won the gasoline lottery.  We had so much of it we didn't know what to do with it all.  Now we've squandered so much of it away and we're realizing that hey - there will come a time in the not TOO distant future when at our current consumption rates it'll be all gone. 

Adjusting to that reality is just something we will need to deal with.  It's something we can do though.  Rather than towing a camper why not go with a tent when camping instead?  Instead of towing a large heavy boat (burning it's own gas) a small kayak or canoe can be used instead.  I have an uncle that does this already.  He fishes out of a small plastic boat with an electric trolling motor mounted on the back that just has foot controls to steer and accelerate.  It works fine for him.  When hunting, rather than needing 4 wheel drive, park on the nearest good road and walk/hike in to your stand rather than driving (hey when I was younger I took a Mustang duck hunting - it was fine parked on the road.  I just strapped on the waders and walked into where I wanted to go :)).  Think of it like going on a diet.  The 4x4 is that nice plate of fried chicken, mash and gravy, and coleslaw.  The battery-hybrid is the grilled chicken with steamed green beans and carrots.  Sure the former might be more satisfying, but the latter isn't too bad once you get used to it, and you do what you gotta do :).

Point is that while it's not quite here yet, the rising cost and dwindling supply is going to force us as a nation to start cutting back.  Similar example: way back near the turn of the previous century lobsters were generally seen as a junk catch.  You could buy them in stores to use as fish bait, and the people who ate them who regarded as pretty poor backwoods people.  At that time the supply was still good, and the demand was very low, hence low prices and poor people eating lots of them.  Fast forward to today.  People have changed their minds.  Demand of lobsters is now through the roof, and as a result, so is it's price.  Nowadays some poor guy on minimum wage, merely due to market conditions, just has to accept that he isn't going to eat much lobster.  We'll have to soon face a similar reality with our high-horsepower engines.

Offline Dixie Dude

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2009, 02:57:18 PM »
We do not have to do without our 4x4's or large vehicles.  We have an 800 year supply of coal, a 100 year supply of natural gas already drilled, tapped and ready to put into the distribution system.  We have an estimated 30,000 year supply of natural gas offshore, I said 30,000 years in natural gas hydrates.  We are using the WRONG fuel for our vehicles.  We can produce ALL our electricity from nuclear power.  America has enough resources to supply a population the size of China at our current standard of living.  The 6 major oil companies, the government, environmentalists, and socialists, have strangled our ability to get out of this situation.  We can produce power with wind, tides, solar, and nuclear, all renewable.  We can use synthetic fuel from coal and use natural gas.  We can grow algae in greenhouses that would cover the size of Rhode Island and produce enough algae oil to power our countries vehicles.  We have solutions.  We don't have the leadership to say this is what we are going to do.  We could also grow most of our own vegetables in greenhouses year round without importing any from foreign countries.  No insecticides either.  There is enough natural gas at dairy farms and feed stalls to provide all the residential natural gas in America.  Where is our leadership to invoke these changes.  If our money is spent at home and not in Arab countries, it would provide lots of energy related jobs paying good money.  Instead we buy their oil an they spend it on whatever they want.  I work in the energy field, I know.  I will get off my soapbox now. 

Offline Swampman

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2009, 03:03:55 PM »
I'm not interested in anything that gets less than 40 mpg.  That's why I drive Toyotas.  I carry my camper in my backpack.
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Offline DDZ

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2009, 03:05:45 PM »
Right now I see the clean burn diesels having more of a future than the electric cars. Lets face it people like horsepower, and the electric cars with little gasoline engines don't have any. Wait until people have to start replacing their batteries, which hasn't happened yet with the electric cars. I bet they ain't going to want to go out and buy another one. How much is that prius or volt going to be worth after eight years, and it needs $8,000 worth of batteries to keep it going?

Batteries expire, they always have and they always will. Unless someone can invent a battery that doesn't. When the clean burn diesels hit the market I think more people will opt for the diesel than the electric car. Its all about horsepower. If it wasn't car manufactures wouldn't be making cars with 200 or more horsepower.  

It would be nice if it were legal for oil companies to extract the billions of gallons of oil under the surface of the US. If this were possible no one would be buying an electric car.  
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Offline billy_56081

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2009, 03:13:48 PM »
Now this is one klunker I would like to see traded in.

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Offline Swampman

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2009, 03:23:19 PM »
The batteries are about $2000-$3000 and they are lasting about 3 times longer than they thought they would.  My 40+ mpg Toyotas run on gas only.
"Brother, you say there is but one way to worship and serve the Great Spirit. If there is but one religion, why do you white people differ so much about it? Why not all agreed, as you can all read the Book?" Sogoyewapha, "Red Jacket" - Senaca

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Offline Oldshooter

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2009, 03:39:41 PM »
Quote
Heard on the radio today that $ for Clunkers cost the American Taxpayer $24,000 per car; that's per auto industry analysis. And the average price of the cars purchased was not much higher than that amount. Talk about some serious overhead in the administration of benefits. 600%

Parallel to that, the first time home buyer credit of $8,000 costs us on average $43,000 per home bought, assuming 85% of those taking the credit were not already going to buy a house. I guess overhead on that is better, only 500%+ !

That Pardner Chaplain Sir, is well worth repeating. makes me wonder what the hell the Government medical is gonna cost?     ???
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Offline Questor

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #25 on: October 29, 2009, 04:15:24 PM »
I recently heard of the 20% rule, which is the fudge factor that is used when estimating what government programs really cost. Multiply the stated dollars by 5 and you get approximately what the actual cost is.

I was genuinely startled when I first saw that Jimmy Carter / Obamunist picture above.
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Offline Swampman

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #26 on: October 29, 2009, 04:23:06 PM »
I we were able to extract all 21 billion barrels of oil under the US, it would last from 3-8 years depending on who you believe.  We are pretty much out of oil.
"Brother, you say there is but one way to worship and serve the Great Spirit. If there is but one religion, why do you white people differ so much about it? Why not all agreed, as you can all read the Book?" Sogoyewapha, "Red Jacket" - Senaca

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Offline MGMorden

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #27 on: October 29, 2009, 04:25:59 PM »
The batteries are about $2000-$3000 and they are lasting about 3 times longer than they thought they would.  My 40+ mpg Toyotas run on gas only.

Indeed - I'm pretty sure the traditional hybrids don't use batteries at all, but if the price comes down why does it matter that the batteries wear out?  My current car needs a new set of tires every now and then.  It also occasionally needs new brake pads and shocks.  Replacing worn out things on cars is nothing new.  What matters is that they last long enough  between replacements and that the replacements are of a reasonable cost.  As said, we're not there yet, but I'm confident that we will get there.  

Offline Swampman

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #28 on: October 29, 2009, 04:29:13 PM »
You can get a good (almost new)used Toyota Prius battery for $600.00 to $1000.00.  All hybrids have large batteries.
"Brother, you say there is but one way to worship and serve the Great Spirit. If there is but one religion, why do you white people differ so much about it? Why not all agreed, as you can all read the Book?" Sogoyewapha, "Red Jacket" - Senaca

1st Special Operations Wing 1975-1983
919th Special Operations Wing  1983-1985 1993-1994

"Manus haec inimica tyrannis / Ense petit placidam sub libertate quietem" ~Algernon Sidney~

Offline Dixie Dude

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Re: Clash for Klunkers
« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2009, 04:44:42 PM »
Swampman, I work for a natural gas company.  We have enough natural gas already on the shelf for 100 years.  We can make it from cow manure from dairy farms, feed stalls, we can make it from coal.  This is without drilling for more.  What the liberals won't tell you, that in an area the size of Washington DC in Anwar Alaska is enough natural gas for 47 years alone and this is not part of the 100 years I mentioned.  There is a 30,000 year supply in the Bermuda triangle in natural gas hydrates.  This is what causes airplanes to crash and ships to sink, when the gas is released.  We can make synthetic oil from coal.  We can convert most cars to diesel and cut 25-35% of our imports.  We can convert fleet vehicles (mail delivery, utilities, city vehicles, UPS etc,) to natural gas and cut another 40% of imports.  We can build nuclear power plants to make our electricity.  Plain old granite rock is 5% uranium, which can be extracted for 1,000's of years to power our country.  No one wants to do anything because of the oil companies, and the power they have.  Many are against nuclear power, even environmentalists are against using natural gas which is the cleanest of the fossil fuels.  We can however solve this problem, by using our resources, but most are tied up on government land or offshore.  Greed, sin, and power hungry people and polititians keep Americans from being productive.