Where are all of the supplies

[38MAN]

I guess I just don't understand. In business when there is a demand, manufacturing ramps up to meet the demand. In the past year I have tried to purchase reloading supplies but it has been difficult. Last night I tried to find what I need to re-supply my 45 auto needs. Backorder, on backorder, no stock on and on and on. The standard response from my local shops is "Everyone is scared that they won't be able to get supplies in the future". Obama has not done away with the right to bear arms, yet. I sure he would like to but he hasn't yet. So, why is there such a gap in supply and demand?

[Graybeard]

The component makers and most large suppliers say the bulk of the components are going to ammo makers under long term contracts. Ammo manufacture seems to have greatly ramped up to meet demand and that has reduced the over all supply to the reloading market.

Combine that with hoarding and folks buying up to sell at scalper prices at gun shows and via the internet and you have the current situation. I have contacts at many of the bullet makers and they tell me they are making them as fast as they can and are shipping them just as fast. They most times now don't even have stock on hand to ship to writers.

The stuff is being made as fast as the manufacturers can produce it. They are being grabbed up at absolutely unprecedented rates by folks in anticipation of what is to come.

[kynardsj]

Here in the Montgomery, Al area reloading supplies have made a good comeback at the sporting goods stores. There was a local gunshow today that had a lot of primers and powder at reasonable prices. Not great but reasonable.

[KeepTryin]

Well no kidding. I just got into being interested in reloading and man, you'd think the End Of The World was around the corner... I was at a family holiday function (my wife has like 500 cousins, I'm exaggerating but not by much) and got into a political discussion with one of them who happens to be involved with the Democratic party and I won't bore you with the details but he was like "I have no idea" i.e. the Dems have realized carrying on about gun control etc. is a sure way to lose elections. He attributed it to groundswell paranoia. I have no doubt that if the current bunch in office were in for a while and got comfortable they'd likely try to do some dumb/dangerous/idiotic/against the constitiution stuff but it's early days yet...

So I can understand the the reaction, where folks are hoarding, but jeez!

For 30 years I've heard about how easily we can give away whatever industry we have and we can ramp up and cope with demand no matter what but it sure as heck doesn't seem to be working in this application...

[LilNewt]

They are hard to come by, but they are still out there.  I am hoping to have some more money soon to go to the hole in the wall store and buy some more supplies that they are sparse on, but do still have.  That is if someone doesnt beat me there first.  They dont have the lowest cost stuff, but you dont have to order it and wait and hope that it comes in.  I really dont understand why the big hoopla is surrounding this fear of them taking away our rights.  I understand that it is possible, but is it probable?  I can not see why they would take away a tax revenue such as this.  I really cant see the gun and ammunition suppliers trying to calm the panic either.  Business has never been better for them than right now.  The local gun store here is loving it, absolutely loving it. 

[38MAN]

Thanks for the input guys. Maybe it will get better over time but in the mean time I guess I will do what I've done for the past year. Get supllies where I can find them and cut back on burning up my existing supplies by shooting my bow more.

[Flash]

Don't forget, the military is taking a big chunk too. It's nothing compared to some of the larger military actions but just the same, if supplies are based on active personell, and there's destined to be 70,000 troops abroad by this spring, that's a ton of ammo. I would estimate that the military is pulling millions of rounds of ammunition from the manufacturers every year, if not every six months.

[Graybeard]

True enough but that is primarily limited to .223, .308, 9mm and .50 BMG for the military with a few .45 acp tossed in for special ops guys. Still that has an impact on SR, LR, SP primer supply. That is a significant factor in the ammo manufacturing for sure and that is where the vast majority of primers are going now is to ammo manufacturers.

Most ammo makers of any significant size have long term contracts with the primer makers to supply their needs and they get first priority on primers and the reloading market has to live with whatever is excess to ammo maker needs. With the ramp up in .223 and .308 ammo to support the war effort it definitely impacts what we can find.

[38MAN]

Sounds like a good business opportunity to me. Maybe someone should look at long term contract servicing the reloading industry. One that takes into account the needs of and caters to us reloaders. Cabelas, Midway are you listening to your customers?

[Graybeard]

Tooling up to manufacture powder and primers or for that matter brass cases is NOT a cheap or easy task to take on. It involves an investment of HUGE sums of money and takes time to get into operation. Historically all such shortages as we are experiencing have gone away long before a new company could even get started. The long term supply vs. demand issue shows that the companies now in the business are more than capable of supplying the demand.

Short term demand as we have recently experienced will subside and likely soon. When it does any new start up company caught by it will fold and I think the folks with enough money to begin such an operation are aware of that.

Now I suspect there just might be another as yet unseen/unknown element to the current shortage situation. Yeah this is where I'm gonna toss out a conspracy theory.

I'm becoming convinced that someone let's for now just call them a "third party" meaning they are not in the ammo making business and not a shooter/reloader but a third group with an interest in doing harm to both groups perhaps might be buying in quantity as well. Supplies when they come in to the reloading supply industry are being snapped up way too fast. Hoarders who are reloaders/shooters at heart just don't strike me as having the funds to keep buying at the rate supplies are disappearing for this long.

Now who might this third group be? I dunno to be honest. I have two potential answers. One is a government or quasi government entity arming to be like the brown shirt group we've talked of who will in time begin to take away our freedom and liberties. Or they could be an army arming to prevent that same thing. But they might be the super rich antis buying up these components to make it more difficult for gun owners.

I kinda lean toward one or the other of the first mentioned. A large group who has full intent to use them but whether to take our rights or to support our rights I just dunno.

I just do not believe our fellow shooters plus the current war effort are enough to account for the ammo and components dropping down a big black hole at this time. Not for this long. The military aren't firing nearly as many rounds as they did during Vietnam and supplies weren't in such short supply then.

[Flash]

I've bought over the years when I didn't really need the stuff so now, as luck would have it, so do I. When the 22lr and mag ammo were on sale at stores that don't even exsist any longer, I'd buy it. I am talking about many years worth of filling needs and wants and basically, being a pack rat. I can now shoot for both hunting and recreation without wory. Back when Ronald Reagan was shot, my smith told me that I'd better get what I want before someone tells me I can't. A short time later came the Brady bill, and then the Clinton Circus came to town. And now..........well I'm sure I won't be allowed to type what I think came into town this time but we all know the threat is real. I never rushed out and bought thousands of primers, pounds of powder but anytime I went to an auction or yardsale, I looked for reloading components.

[Flash]

That's an extremely interesting theory Bill and one that has my attention. I hope you are wrong though.

[Graybeard]

I hope so as well. But honestly without some as yet unseen and unknown player besides those normally buying ammo and components I can't really understand why the shortage is still so serious. Manufacturers all assure us they are putting out components as fast as they can with current facilities and since I know some of these folks well I believe what they are telling me. Clearly they are going somewhere and I just don't think that known government use and normal gun owners are where all are going.

[38MAN]

Graybeard this is what I call a niche market. A manufactures who caters to a specific segment of a market (reloaders). They market / promote their business without taking into account for war efforts and demands on the industry politically or otherwise. I always say follow the money. If the manufactures of ammo, brass, primers and bullets can't see a harming trend to the indusrty as a whole due to high profits then they will really be kicked in the knees when the hoarding stops or the objectives of the third party are met. Maybe they (the manufactures) need to make some "state of the industry" comments to slow the bleeding and put all of us at ease.

[Graybeard]

Many have made such statements tho generally just on their websites and they don't get wide attention. I do not think it is the manufacturers and in many cases not even the wholesalers who are making the prices so high. It's the retailers to the largest extent.

You can still buy primers from Powder Valley for $25.50 per thousand. Yeah that's up but then metals prices have soared in general and so the prices of everything using metals has soared as well. I don't think their primer price is of line with what other metal items are now selling for compared to what they did a couple or three years ago. Blame most of that on China I think as they are buying up all metals as fast as they can grab them and price be damned.

I would not totally rule out some foreign nation like China or some other being that "third party" but you'd think is that was the case by now someone would have wised up to that fact.

While I'd love to see a manufacturer such as you mention I don't think it's economically viable for anyone to break into the market in that way. We're all pretty set in our ways and like to buy our favorite brands. Most of us are even reluctant to buy foreign made primers as hard as American made ones are to get. I did break down and pick up 5000 foreign shotshell primers before I stopped shooting skeet and still have them on hand to back up my supply of American made ones. I have also taken 5000 of the Russian made SR primers when I wasn't able to get American. I even bought Federal SPM primers even tho Federal is my absolute last ditch selection as it's such a pain to put them into my Lee Auto Prime trays.

I have no answers only questions. Like all the rest of you I wish I really knew what's going on but even with the industry contacts I have I can't figure it out. I think that's because right now no one in the industry really knows what black hole all the stuff is going down.

[Flash]

During a conversation with a friend, the topic came up about what we'd have to fight for within our own borders, during our lifetime. He had an interesting philosophy and was a few years older than me so out of respect, I listened and said little. He brought up an interesting point and one that I've never heard mentioned before and that was border wars. He told me that if there was enough organization and strength, we could have to fight to regain control of Arizona and New Mexico. I now wonder if he was really on to something. The drug cartels are known to be smuggling guns into Mexico. Are they now importing components, which could be perfectly legal?

[wreckhog]

Stopped by my local shop today. Small 1 man shop. Gun racks were light. Because they sold 15 guns the first hour this am. Had a big sign with Obama's pic, thanking him for the business. All the primers you wanted for $35/k-$40/k. I asked about Blackhorn209 and Lil Gun. They had plenty. Didn't ask about brass or bullets but heard them telling another customer that they could get anything in 3 days.

[KeepTryin]

Just took a look at the Powder Valley site. Out of stock on pretty much all primers, certianly all large rifle...