Some good news

[Questor]

Some of these recent labor numbers are starting to look pretty good now. The following is from today's news. When it gets to around 300,000 it'll be about normal for good times:


Claims fell by 43,000, more than anticipated, to 440,000 in the week ended Feb. 6

[teamnelson]

If its that simple, then that is good news.

However, do those numbers factor all those who have rolled off unemployment and now have no benefits? Or all those who are underemployed, some rather significantly? This does show that perhaps corporations are reaching their efficiency point, so layoffs are slowing down to normal turnover.

[Questor]

Yep. Those are still a problem, but when you see the new claims going down, it's a good thing.

[Sourdough]

Does it take into account those that have rolled off the books and are no longerm looking for work?

[mirage1988]

The claims are going down only because you apply week by week and laid-off workers are reaching the end of their benefits so they are not counted anymore. There is no "good results" from the numbers, that is going to be 43,000 more foreclosures for 2010.

[Questor]

It doesn't apply to those people. It applies to people who just got fired.

[mirage1988]

You state that as fact, have you any proof?

[teamnelson]

mirage, I think you and questor are saying the same thing.

Just heard we're still 11 million jobs short of pre-recession numbers; 15 million out of work right now, not counting those who have taken underemployment to stay afloat.

[Questor]

No, I'm only reporting that the number of new unemployment claims is down signficiantly and getting closer to the normal non-recessionary levels we saw between 2000 and 2006. For a while, it was over 800,000.

[mirage1988]

Yeah- that is great news for the 8 million plus workers out of work above and beyond the "non-recessionary levels we saw between 200 and 2006." At 6 million unemployed it equalled ten years of job growth, now it is like 12-13 years. Hows that for good news?

[mcwoodduck]

Some of these recent labor numbers are starting to look pretty good now. The following is from today's news. When it gets to around 300,000 it'll be about normal for good times:


Claims fell by 43,000, more than anticipated, to 440,000 in the week ended Feb. 6

Do you understand that that is this Month?  and has been going on for the past year plus?  With the slow down in people being layed off it means two things
1) Companies have gotten rid of as many as they can and need to keep X amount or close the doors.
2) There is no one else to get rid of to cut costs.  But as more people loose thier jobs less demand is out there and less goods and services will be consumed meaning fewer people and goods will be needed to provide those services and goods.
Also the unemployment numbers are down as people that have exhausted (run out ) of unemployment insurance are no longer considered un-employed.
All Numbers can be manipulated to make you think what you want.  And in the next 6 month you will see more and more the unemployment number go down that this moron of a president is going to claim are jobs created by his stimulus package.

[Questor]

Mcwoodduck:

I said it was good news, not great news. It appears that the bleeding is stopping.

[mechanic]

That number is a comparison to last yr's number for this month.  It reflects the fact that historically we have heavy lay-off's in January, because people are hired for the holiday season, then let go.  This year they were not hired.

[Questor]

Nope, it's an absolute number not a relative number. And it's been declining steadily for months.

This thread reminds me of a thread that I posted on a fishing forum one time about the strength of a couple of brands of braided fishing line. I kept saying that the line broke cleanly about half way along the line between the weight and the handle I used. People kept insisting that there was something wrong with the knots I was tying. The line wasn't breaking at the knots, so the knots were not a factor. It always amazes me how much evidence is resisted at times. I'd post again to clarify, then they'd say "did you try a palomar knot". It went on that way for an amusing length.

[teamnelson]

But it's only one number. There are other numbers that put this number in perspective. Thats like a Doc saying, good news, the fever has dropped! And the nurse saying, but Doc there's no pulse.

[Questor]

OK. I give up.

[powderman]

Mcwoodduck:

I said it was good news, not great news. It appears that the bleeding is stopping.

The bleeding isn't stopping. Claims are less because folks checks are gone and it would do no good to reapply. the only change I see around here is more and more folks are losing their jobs and homes. POWDERMAN. 

[mcwoodduck]

Mcwoodduck:

I said it was good news, not great news. It appears that the bleeding is stopping.

For now, But we have the Bush tax cuts that are going to expire and go back up to the Clinton tax increases at the middle of this year that will cause a new round of hemoraging.
To fix three problems at once we need to lower tax rates to Reagan - 5% levels, cut spending by 20%  and half the rate of growth (base line budgeting where growing the budget by 10% rather than 20% is a cut), and finally cut all extra taxes in half (sin, fuel, import....)
This will put more people back to work, by giving more people more $ in thier pockets, more people working will create more tax revinue and will give more $ for the air heads in congress to spend on adding safety nets to health care rather than taking it over (as they do not want to lower the costs as they are not even looking at the COSTS or free markets that will allow comitition to lower the costs.  We need someone else in our office and are not hiring, even a temp, as we are waiting for the other shoe to drop with the added taxes, added health care taxes, or decline in the economy due to either the higher taxes or the massive health care taxes at the same time we will need to still provide health care to our people for the next 4 years till the stupid government plan kicks in if foolishly passed.
Sorry I went to school and liked the economics classes.  I wish we made elected officials pass a macro and micro econ test with a "B" or better before they are allowed to run for any office.

[Questor]

Everybody's waiting for the other shoe to drop. Companies in good health have so much cash now it's amazing. They want to expand but all the uncertainty is keeping them from doing it. It doesn't matter what the size of the company is.

One good thing that happened recently was that Bernanke was approved for another tour. At least he is a known quantity. If he had been replaced it would have fueled more uncertainty.

I'm not sure I like the idea of politicians schooled in economics. They'd know enough to be even more dangerous than they are now, and what they say might sound like it makes sense. At least today they know so little that even a toddler can identify what they say as BS.

[mcwoodduck]

OH and if theses same Dolts had not monkeyed with the bail out and instead told the banks that wanted the $ they had to:
1) re finance all existing loans to 6%, and give every one a 30 day grace period.  Then if you were late 10 days or more the interest rate would adjust from there 1 percentage point for every time you are more than 10 days late.
2) have the federal government purchase the bad loans and acution off the bad debt houses.  keeping the realestate market from going into free fall.
3) bailed out the auto makers with future purchases of government vehickles and purchase X cars, trucks and SUV's now to be delivered over the next 10 years from all the US auto makers.
4) Offer the sales tax on a NEW car purchase or 1/2 the sales tax as a tax credit on you 2009, 2010 income tax and we would have had less costs to the tax payers than the Cash for Clunkers fiasco that inflated prices and if your car was worth 4,450 and you traded it in for the 4500 you were taxed as if you made an additional $4500.00  so your list price 20,000 car or truck cost you about 20% more than if you bought the car a month earlier or later than the program.

[mcwoodduck]

Everybody's waiting for the other shoe to drop. Companies in good health have so much cash now it's amazing. They want to expand but all the uncertainty is keeping them from doing it. It doesn't matter what the size of the company is.

One good thing that happened recently was that Bernanke was approved for another tour. At least he is a known quantity. If he had been replaced it would have fueled more uncertainty.

I'm not sure I like the idea of politicians schooled in economics. They'd know enough to be even more dangerous than they are now, and what they say might sound like it makes sense. At least today they know so little that even a toddler can identify what they say as BS.

I don't think most of the really liberal morons like Pelosi, Reid, Pat Kennedy, and Obama could get enough answers right to Fail and would not be allowed to run.
Then again with people like Obama he would tell us he got an A+ and then hide the record.