EOTW what to prepare for?

[don heath]

Been sitting bored out of my brain in a lion blind for the best part of last week..got so short of reading material I had to re-read my old university Geology notes..which got me thinking...

There are only two possible scenarios for an 'end of the world as we know it' as are disscussed here on the forum. a) a  Meteroite strike and b) the caldera at Yellowstone park blows.

In all other instances, such as economic collapse, nuclear war etc the military would take control if civil government failed, outside forces would come and help or the whole world would wobble off its axis and we're all dead anyway.

The effect of both a meteroite and the caldera blowing would be very similar...a 'volcanic winter' with massive ammounts of dust and ash in the air. Obviously a meteroite strike in the northern hemisphere would affect me less than Americans and visa versa for one in the south. But - in either case, survivors would need to reach the tropics where food will always grow. need some quick growing verieties of seed  (so you can produce food in a very short growing  season of erratic rainfall) and a decent enough rifle to protect what you have grown. 

[teamnelson]

Well, there's also the biologic option. Flus have swept entire continents and decimated millions. The H1N1 wasn't as bad as predicted, but many folks did die. The next version might not be as kind.

And given a large enough economic collapse, military or outside force response may not be a foregone conclusion as most national economies are so dependent on each other that if the US collapsed for example, Canada and Mexico wouldn't be far behind, and Asia and Europe might be crippled to the point of being unable to do more than focus on domestic issues for a long while. If there's no guarantee your ship or plane can refuel when it lands in the US, you might not want to send it over.

Not as drastic as a volcanic winter, but still the world as we know it today would end. I'm not certain we can really prepare for a meteorite strike ... that's on a scale of suck that just boggles the mind.

At least that's my musings from a tunnel deep in an island in the pacific.

[don heath]

We have seen pandemics before...and the military always rise to the challenge- sometimes other peoples military but if in doubt, the military will be there. The USA has 1,4 million servicemen. They will be the best shielded from nuclear, chemical or biological threats.

Societies have collapsed...the most startling was rome...you find buried  roman coins all over Britain- rich people who hid their money following the empires collapse,  hoping someday it would have some value again - and it never did for hundeds of years. The collapse was relatively sudden and utterly complete. Roman troops withdrew in AD 408 and the last form of Government collapsed in AD410 - after which money ceased to have any value.

More recently though the disintegration of the Otterman, British, Autria-Hungary and most recently the USSR have all been far more 'controlled' collapses.

It is true that the only way the USA can ever get rid of its dept is by hyper inflation (like my own country has done) - and it would bankrupt china and japan as  side bonuses. It would lead to massive civil upheavil, but not the end of civilisation.   

[Victor3]

...outside forces would come and help.... 

 Or maybe seize the opportunity and be less than helpful?

 Being contained in a large city, I could probably only hope to hunker down and band together with others to try and survive in the hope that things would improve.

 The other day I saw a PBS program on the 1918 flu pandemic. The US health czar (Victor something was his name; only reason I remember it) at the time ran the numbers at its peak and wrote that civilization might come to an end in short order if it continued on. It was stated in the program that today it's believed that almost every person on the planet was exposed to the virus.

 What was most interesting to me was how survivors in hard hit areas described the way the population around them pushed the incident out of its collective mind and went on as if it had never happened. I wonder if that's a common response when something like that happens.

[Graybeard]

The currently running BBC America show Survivors in my opinion lays out the most likely scenario quite well. For those who have not followed it some sinister "government entity" naturally in England produces a new virus which spreads rapidly and is about 99% fatal.

Some few are immune and some far fewer catch it but don't die. The little "official group" he started it say approximately 1% of world population survive it and they are working on a cure or vaccine so they can rejoin the rest of world outside their enclave and/or save the rest that are left.

I do believe right or wrongly that we do in fact have a group which I merely call the cabal who right now are working to develop a strain of virus which can do exactly this but I'm fairly sure they will want a vaccine for them and those chosen few who will serve them afterwards.

I believe aids was one of their early attempts and H1N1 and other new flus of late are as well. Ebola also.

Sooner or later they will get it just right and they will wipe out 80% to 90% of the human population of earth. The only ones left will be those who made it and have a vaccine, those chosen to be their servants after the collapse and any lucky few who might have a natural immunity or who by fate survive it even tho they catch it.

I dare say it wil spread so fast and so far and wide that the entire world will go thru it within a month or less and at the end of that time all that will be left of earth's human population will be those "survivors" as on the current BBCA show.

I think the show lays out fairly accurate how that remaining population will react as well. If you've not seen any of it you really should. Like on the older show Jericho it was the government that did it tho this time the British not US government. I think several governments or at least those in charge of several country's governments are complicite in this scheme which is being controlled by a small group of super rich folks from all over the globe.

Laugh if you wish but I do firmly believe this effort is underway and the only reason it has not yet been put into play is they've just not yet found the magic pill that wipes out enough folks yet leaves those they want saved. As soon as they hit upon it then it will be put into play.

[don heath]

Greybeard...yup that was one scenario I had overlooked...and not that foar off the mark- and it doesn't take manevloent humans to do it either - Marbergs Virus (and Ebola) were discovered by Mike Crees in Rhodesia in 1960...those diseases affected only rodents at the time and marbergs was (may still be) Spread by mosquitoes. ...both have since made the jump to humans.

In the 1980's I worked on controlling the worst rabies outbreak on record. To make matters worse a rare strain of rabies -makola virus- cropped up. Vaccination was only partially effective. Makola had only previously been identified in Norway and Chille...so what was it doing in Zimbabwe?

Part of the answer MAY be that the South Africans were experimenting with biological warfare...including spreading rabies by air - they certainly killed some 15-20,000 PAC terrorists in a camp in Western Zimbabwe and nobody to this day is saying just how...

[Victor3]

It is true that the only way the USA can ever get rid of its dept is by hyper inflation (like my own country has done) - and it would bankrupt china and japan as  side bonuses. It would lead to massive civil upheavil, but not the end of civilisation.   

 Don - Were you living in Zimbabwe when the inflation hit? If so, could you describe what you saw?

[jlwilliams]

  A friend of mine is all worked up over the possability of massive solar flares.  Nothing anybody can do about it, so he just worries and stockpiles.  While it wouldn't realy end the world, it could knock out the power for a good long while.  That would effect the US in profound ways.  No refrigeration would hurt the average urbanite who doesn't have much food on hand.  Rioting and looting would be widespread.  It took a couple of days for New Orleans to fall to anarchy without the lights.  Looting hits drug stores quickly because of addicts using a disaster as an oportunity to grab what they can.  We have way too many people on psychological meds without which many of them would become dangerous.  Not to mention all those people who, without access to their prescriptions just can't survive or function.  Not the end of the world, but a serious shake down.

[charles p]

Pelosi and Obama will take care of all or us.

[bearmgc]

Point comes when all the worrying and ultra preparation is is just plain wasteful of a life not lived. The brain can turn sommersaults and leave a person overwhelmed. I've done my share of preparation and believe God will sort out the rest for for me. I'm going fishing.

[Graybeard]

I didn't know ya'll cut holes in ice to fish out thar in WY Barb. 

[bearmgc]

Hey, think "tailwaters", always open below a dam. Rainbows are staging, and I just tied a half dozen orange scuds. Old Loomis reel is oiled and poised for spring flyfishing. Reservoirs are milk ice now; no more ice fishing for the hordes of Wyoming Irish bachelor farmers.

[bilmac]

Gonna go below Boysen Bear? A friend of mine always drags me down there this time of year to freeze my rear end.

[bearmgc]

Hahaha, and every year you go. Its usually got a few too many people down there for me, but the fishing can be good. No I'm going to Fontenelle below the dam, the Green river. My dogs can run and I can fish in peace. I just love it when the pelicans come flying down the river in tight formation, like B52's, heehee. It trips me out. You guys should come on down. The fishing will be super, and I mean it.

[teamnelson]

Here's a scenario to prepare for ... massive unemployment, hyperinflation, blocked trade with asia, unprecedented levels of immigration, skyrocketing fuel prices because of a war between Israel and the Arab states. Hmmm ... reads like todays news!

[don heath]

Victor
I have lived in Rhodesia/Zimbabwe my whole life and was still a government scientist when the economy collapsed. Basically it went as follows.

1)   After a massive, unbudgeted payout to party supporters the Zimbabwe Dollar (Z$) collapsed from 10:1 against the US$ to 17:1 in November 1997. This bankrupted many small businesses that relied on credit- eg a mate had a nice little business importing paints. His supplier gave him 60 days to pay, and he invoiced his distributors on 30 days…In early November ’97 a shipment worth US$100,000 arrived- he sent it out with his usual 20% mark up…so invoices totalled 1,2 million zim (ie US$120,000)…but by the time the money came in, he needed 1,7 million Zim to buy the US$100,000 he needed to pay his supplier in South Africa….So South African company didn’t get paid and my mate emigrated to Aussie.
2)   By printing money and increasing subsidies the government held things more or less stable for two years. During this time the farm invasions began and I was being pressurised to quit government as they couldn’t have a white man in a senior position. With inside knowledge, I went to the bank and borrowed the money to buy a house and a decent  truck so I could go hunting full time. I couldn’t get a mortgage for the house (at the prevailing rate of 18% interest) and had to settle for a bank loan at a fixed interest rate of 35%. I set of for the USA to do some marketing and got home to find (as per my information at the central bank) that the government had lost control and inflation had jumped in 10 days for 15% p.a. to over 600% . There was now also a black market for hard currency- official exchange rate was 35:1 but you could get 55:1 on any street corner…The main victims of this collapse were the banks (breaks my heart) and the poor and lower middle class who bought goods on credit from stores. The lines of credit from the stores were inflation linked- salaries were not and anybody who had anything on HP lost it and just about anything else they owned as the sheriff of the court tried to collect back the ever increasing amount of money they owed the shops. This wasn’t entirely legal, but unless you could afford a good lawyer, you were just taken to the cleaners. The bank had to go to the high court to try and alter my contract (at 35% interest) and I eventually settled with them by paying them 1/10 of what I had borrowed.
3)   Inflation continued to increase and cash was in short supply- government couldn’t print it fast enough- but if you accepted a cheque it had lost a fair portion of its face value by the time it cleared. The banks increased the ‘clearing’ time for cheques from 3 days to 7 to try and recoup losses. So, Business started charging a ‘commission’ for accepting a cheque. Initially 10% but within a few months goods cost twice as much if you paid by cheque.
4)   When inflation hit 1,000,000% everybody stopped accepting anything but cash Where we could we moved onto the US$ but for many services the government regulations held sway and you had to pay in zim$...which were always in short supply (deliberately to try and hold down the rate of inflation).
5)   Over 3 years the government ‘revised’ the currency 4 times dropping a total of 25 zero’s off the money. At the end you needed 20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 original Zim dollar coins to buy 1 US$ bill (of course, with all the zeroes that had been dropped you actually only had to hand over two 100 trillion ‘revised’ $ bills.) 

Very few folk over the age of 50 could keep up with the pace of change and how to fiddle the money, work the black market etc. I used to phone my dad every Monday and tell him how much a pennyweight of gold was worth so he could comprehend the figures on the goods in the shops.

6) Final straw- Government introduced ‘price controls’ to stop inflation. You were not allowed to charge more than about US$1 for a pair of shoes or a suit, and fuel had to be sold at US 3 cents a gallon…Maximum retail price for a TV was US$1.25…The senior government officials backed by police and army descended on the shops and ‘bought’ all the goods…but to the governments surprise, the shops didn’t re-stock!!! And everything then moved onto a black market economy where gold was king and the US$ not too far behind.

[Victor3]

 Wow. Thanks much, Don.

 Many believe the stage is set for hyperinflation here in the US (and when the US sneezes, the world gets a cold). Probably wouldn't be a bad idea to lay in a supply of easily bartered goods and real money (gold) about now.

 When Dad passed in 1994, Mom told me he'd stashed "some coins" under his workbench in the garage in the late 70's and asked me if I could dig them out and sell them for her. Turned out that it was over 600 lbs of US silver 1/2 dollars along with 28 Krugerrands. I cashed them for $58K. Wish I'd told her to hang onto them; she coulda been 'livin' large' in her sunset years if sold today.

[bilmac]

Thanks Don. It's almost certain to happen here and it's reasureing to hear how you survived it. What has happened since? Is the country making a comeback? I suppose when the US goes most of the rest of the world will go and recovery will be a looong time coming.

I think the wife and I are pretty well prepared, but the test for us is how we respond to those who haven't. I keep thinking of the widow in scripture who thought she was sharing her last meal for her and her son with Isiah 

[don heath]

What has happened since? Well the poor continue to get screwed and corruption is endemic (it was almost non existant before). The worst hit are the factory workers and civil servants- If you don't want the job - take a hike, there are plenty who are desperate...A cop now earns US$140 per month...so at every village there is a check point, and it will cost you a buck if you are pleasant and $10 if you are not.

Food supplies are critical- less than half the population has more than one meal a day and for most it is corn meal and a few vegetables with meat once a month if they have a good job. As always it is the kids and old folk who bear the brunt.

One imediate consiquence though of the hyper inflation was that all pension plans collapsed. My dad was down to .0002 US cents per month last year, and I recieved a government pension of Z$609 per month as a disability allowance for getting shot up while on duty...see if you can work out how little that was- I used the pension cheques as wall paper in the toilet as it cost 2 trillion to bank a cheque for $609!!! (and cost the government 1 trillion in stamp duty on the cheque and 27 trillion for the envelope and postage....)

As a consiquence, my parents kept working- my dad designed and actually built his last roof (physically doing much of the work himself at the hospital) age 84

[jlwilliams]

  Thank you, Don.  That is sobering reading.

  I have been thinking about this all day.  There is no knowing what tomorow brings.  There are a few things that can help regardless of what sort of disaster comes, even if none comes.

  First, get as physically fit as you can and work at staying that way.  This is on my mind at least in part because I'm on a health kick and working hard to get back into the shape I have been in before a couple years of neglecting my training.  Physical fitness helps you get through sickness and injuries faster than if you are in poor shape.  It's also going to make all the difference if you have to move on foot for whatever reason.  Besides, it just feels better to be firm than flabby.

  Work toward as much self sufficiency as you can.  People who don't grow food before a disaster aren't going to be in a good position to start after.  If you have a garden or orchard or coop, it's not so tricky to put more into and get more out of it.  I've been working on water filtration, and my next step should be some amount of power generation.

  Train up on first aid.  I know my training is a little out dated.  This year better include a refresher course for me.  Basic medical knowledge is a vital piece of self sufficiency.  You are more likely to save a family member's life with first aid than you are with gun fighting skills.  Gun training is important too, but people get hurt by lots of things and violence is only one of them.

  I wish I had a way of making enough cash to stash a big savings away.  With two kids, bad real estate millstones around my neck, it's not easy to get ahead.  Fact is, if there is a major collapse that is anything short of global, the winners will be the ones who are able to afford to go where it's not so bad and ride it out.  Toward that end, I'm working on putting out more product.  It's not the most cerebral aproach, but working more does make more money.  The real estate didn't work out so hot.  Maybe I should have just worked harder and saved more.

  Anyway, those are my thoughts on this.  With all that's on the news, it seems like a realistic look has to be taken at what to do if there is a major collapse.

[teamnelson]

don, thanks. I was reading your post to my wife and kids over breakfast this morning. I went to seminary with a Nathan Lino, his family was in Zim during the "great unpleasantness" defending a plantation. Anyway, my kids haven't been to africa in about 8 years so I was reminding them of the times wed go down to the exchange and swap $20US for a wad of djibfranc the size of a bread loaf, and paid a nickle for a loaf of bread. And then I asked them to imagine that here. They've lived in the 2nd and 3rd world, but they've forgotten having lived here for awhile. My wife had a nightmare last night that we were back in Somalia, but it was the US.

[don heath]

Stopped by the Church in town yesterday- My mother-in-law runs a feeding scheem of elderly destitute there and they keep the figures that the government doesn't like...

Zimbabwe 2010

 

A country in deep crisis

(population now about 9 million- down from 16 million in 1997)

83 % population living on less than USD 2 per day

70-90 % households “on brink of hunger”  (Caritas Zimbabwe)

35 %  plus of all children severely malnourished  (IRIN NEWS)
 
1.6 million food insecure between January and March 2010  (IRIN NEWS)
 
Average life expectancy – 37 years for men;  34 for women
 
AIDS – 2 million living with HIV
 
Highest orphan rate in the world;  1,6 m children or 1 in 4 children (UNICEF)
(approaching historic levels set in Rwanda after genocide in 1994

70 % commercial agriculture destroyed – 90 % arable land lying fallow – 2008 harvest produced enough food for only 28 % population
 
60,000 farm workers made destitute due to illegal land grabs in 2009 alone (General Agricultural & Plantation Workers’ Union)
 
At least 6 million dead from AIDS/hunger since 2001
 
Economy contracted 14.1 % in 2008.
 

Inflation estimated 500 billion % by September 2008. Zimbabwe dollar worthless.
 
+ 94 % population unemployed.  75 % Zimbabweans with a job are working outside the country
 

Emigration – estimated 3 million (1 in 4 of population) fled the country
 

 

 

[Victor3]

Point comes when all the worrying and ultra preparation is is just plain wasteful of a life not lived. The brain can turn sommersaults and leave a person overwhelmed. I've done my share of preparation and believe God will sort out the rest for for me. I'm going fishing.

 True. My Mom & Dad were totally at odds on this point. Dad spent a lot of time worrying about a financial disaster and sometimes ate valium like candy. Mom on the other hand had a poem posted on the fridge...

 "Some of your hurts have been cured,
 and the sharpest you still have survived,
 but oh what torture endured,
 from evils that never arrived."

 I wish I were as worry-free as she's decided to be.

[bilmac]

That we are going to be hit with massive hyperinflation is just about a 100% bet. We can ignore that and bury our heads in the sand just like the Jews before the halocost did or we can prepare. Being prepared is not the same as worrying in my book, in fact I have been kind of reinvigorated with the challenge of facing a new reality.

I am a believer and expect a rapture, it's just not for us humans to know when that will happen. What I do know from reading the scripture is that America will probably not be involved in the end time events. Some believe that that will happen because all the Christians have been taken out of the world and as a result Israel will be left alone with no allies. It could be just as likely that what we are seeing happen to our government today will leave Israel alone without allies. If the second option is the case then we could expect that the USofA could go the way of the USSR and there could be years and years of turmoil ahead for this country before God acts.

Or not.  I'm just a Boy Scout at heart

[Victor3]

 Biblical or not, global hyperinflation could be the trigger required for a universal electronic currency to be accepted.

[don heath]

I have traveled through many unsettled and ustable places, in Africa, middle east and asia. . In all, gold coins were freely acceptable as currency- even in places where 'money' had long since ceased to be recognised (like Sudan and Somalia).Throw even a small gold coin like a 1/10 Kruger Rand on a table and you (and so can every third world trader) hear the difference.

Wheneve I am in South Africa  I try and make a point of trawling the coin shops for old 1/10 and 1/4 Kruger Rand coins. They buy far more in rough places than the 'equivalent' value in US$ cash. The big 1oz Kruger rand coins are nice to have and to hold, but they are really too much of a good thing to be a usable currency- I can guarantee nobody has change! A 1/10 coin will fill your truck with fuel in the most remote spots but a full 1 oz coin will still only by you as much as your tank will hold and a bag of rice etc as change 

[bilmac]

I've been thinking the same thing Don. About the only thing full oz. coins will be worth practically will be for very large purchases like real estate or perhaps vehicles. Even 1/10 oz coins are getting to be too valuable, I think they are about $140 apiece now. I'm thinking silver may be mare practical for everyday spending.

[Victor3]

 Small bullion coins are handy to have but when you buy them in the US you generally have to pay the same premium for a 1/20oz as a 1oz. On the bright side, with gold hovering at ~$1,100/oz you're not paying as high of a percentage in premium as when gold was lower. 



 If anyone's interested, this website has a wealth of solid info on precious metal, coins, etc. I've been trading with them for ~25 years.

http://www.golddealer.com/

[bilmac]

The wife and I garden hunt and live in a rural area so I think we will be able to weather bad times pretty well. It's our kids I worry about raising families, so the precious metals we buy goes as gifts to them. Mom still can't resist buying junky plastic toys for the grandkids, but we also include a silver coin with birthday and Christmas. We are even discussing maybe 10oz gold coins for the parents gifts this year. 

[don heath]

Bilmac- When I was a kid, the Christmas pudding always had 'tickies' in it- Rhodesian 2½ cent silver coins. The regular 'silver' coloured coins would turn black with whatever grandma put in the pudding but not silver...however, if you did something really special, there was a gold 1/10th KR (which is the same size as a tickie)...At the time it was something to show off to the brothers/cousins but I look at that little collection with real appreciation these days - 12 silver tickies and 4 1/10th KR. My dad has gold and silver Kruger pennies and Kruger Shillings from when he was small! A nice inheretance.

BTW- Silver is useful, but not nearly as tradeable as gold. The coins landing on the table need to be recognised by somebody as being silver to have any worth other than their face value- the beauty of gold coins is, anybody can hear it is gold when it hits the table!