SHTF

[mcwoodduck]

When You all talk about the Crud hitting the rotating blades.
What do you invision?
And what part of the country are you in?
Clearly when the Storm hit New Orleans and the levies broke, that the Party in charge stole the tax money to fix and reinforce them time and time again, that was a SHTF moment.
When the Planes Flew into the the towers in NYC that was a SHTF moment.
I am sure when Rome Fell that was a SHTF moment for them.
But the rest of the Empire just did what they always did. 
Or are some of you planning for a world like the Mad Max series of movies where it is groups, gangs and clans against the world?

[bearmgc]

No, just a BIG, really BIG generic earthquake out of Yellowstone or Jackson, then couple dams bursting as a result. Flooding, fires, road closures, power outages. I plan to stay on the eastern side of the Rockys.

[Dee]

My worst fears are that there will not be access to yellow cake with chocolate icing. That indeed would be catastrophic.
But on a more serious note, I would look at what is happening in Greece right now, and imagine it getting worse. Could be coming to your neighborhood soon. And remember. When seconds count, the police are only minutes away. Aren't they?

[Hooker]

Here's my plan for the big one
 1 Corinthians 15:52
In a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trump: for the trumpet shall sound, and the dead shall be raised incorruptible, and we shall be changed.

For all the little SHTFs my plan is stay up wind

Pat

[nw_hunter]

My worst fears are that there will not be access to yellow cake with chocolate icing. That indeed would be catastrophic.
But on a more serious note, I would look at what is happening in Greece right now, and imagine it getting worse. Could be coming to your neighborhood soon. And remember. When seconds count, the police are only minutes away. Aren't they?

I don't think it "COULD" be coming to your neighborhood. I think it will!
The factory's have left the country, and the largest employer is the Federal Gov., and they are not in the production business.Just wait till the Pension checks are cut, or they receive an IOU instead of the direct deposit. Things are really going to get interesting

[FourBee]

everything bearmgc , Dee , nw_hunter, and hooker says is right on , and I'm looking to be in hookers plan also.

As for the yellow cake and chocolate icing; Man, what memories.   Mom always knew how to get me home on week-ends.  When I'd come in late at night, there'd be that big ole fresh baked chocolate cake sittin right in the middle of the kitchen table.   What do you expect a big ole teen-ager to do to that cake?   Now days, I gotta watch my weight...

[mechanic]

It's almost 11:00 pm in Ga.  I need to be asleep, have to work tomorrow.  Now Dee's got me hungry, and I wonder what happened to the rest of that cake?

We had 2/3 left Sunday.

[gypsyman]

Several different scenario's here I believe. The slow version, inflation,food shortage's will cause crime to rise. How dramatically will depend on how fast or slow things occur. Might take several years, but will end up like Mexico or Greece. The faster version, which I think will happen, major event. Nuclear blast, middle east war, things go down hill much faster. Matter of a couple months, chaos. Maybe even faster, depending on where the event strike's. If it's here in the U.S., matter of a couple days. People hoarding food and gas. Probably end up with gangs, like in the Mad Max movies, traveling around. Not a pretty picture no matter which way it'll go down. gypsyman

[FWiedner]

... it is groups, gangs and clans against the world?

This is the way of the world.  It is now and has always been.

Regional disaster is disturbing but irrelevant.  As time passes, there is eventual recovery.  For a real SHTF scenario, I envision a national financial collapse, ala Argentina, ala Zimbabwe, ala what's going to happen in Greece, and maybe Portugal, Italy, and Spain as well.  I envision street gangs, thug government entities, and deep, hard, merciless government taxation to the point of property seizures, incarcerations, and gun battles in the street.

So, I guess not much will change, except there will be more or less of a flow of worthless money.  It will be more important to be prepared to defend oneself in public against anticipated but unexpected attack.  Get a reliable sidearm and learn how to use it.  Teach the members of your household how to defend themselves and your home.

The tools you choose are not important as long as they are effective.

What is more important is that you are prepared to defend YOURSELF, and that you ally with worthwhile and dependable companions.  Develop your renewable resources.  Plant a garden and be prepared to kill over a potato.

 

[magooch]

In my younger days I had a big sailboat and my plan was to have it well provisioned and if things got bad enough I would just sail away to a better place.  I sold the boat.  These days it seems more important to enjoy each day as it comes along.  The thought of dealing with a true cataclysmic disaster is too daunting to contemplate. 

I guess I've had a relatively easy life and when I think back about the worst times, the one that was the hardest was when my cat died, or to be exact, he had to be put down.  I realize that most here would think that was nothing and you would be right.  In my case, it makes me understand that if that was my bumpiest period, imagine what a genuine bad time would do.  I'm very serious; if for instance something were to happen to my wife (we've been married for 45 years), I'd probably tip over right there.  I'm just being realistic.  Hey, it's been a fantastic ride.

[mcwoodduck]

... it is groups, gangs and clans against the world?

Regional disaster is disturbing but irrelevant.  As time passes, there is eventual recovery.  For a real SHTF scenario, I envision a national financial collapse, ala Argentina, ala Zimbabwe, ala what's going to happen in Greece, and maybe Portugal, Italy, and Spain as well.  I envision street gangs, thug government entities, and deep, hard, merciless government taxation to the point of property seizures, incarcerations, and gun battles in the street.

 

How can a regional Disaster be irrelevant?  Clearly it was relivant to those in the disaster.  Earth quakes, floods, fires, Bugger eating morons flying planes into buildings.  Regional disasters more likely than a global  or national economic collapse.  And even with a economic collapse Food will still be produced and brought to market.  May not be the wide variety that they have now but there will be food in the markets.  Actually I take that ack with the government in collapse there will be less restrictions, rules and taxes that may allow for more food to be in the markets and Dee will be able to have his yellow cake with Chocolate Icing. 
I am looking at history and seeing what has happened as disasters  and how long they took to correct, 6 weeks seems to be the get back to normal time frame.  In an economic collapse you will see it comming and be able to have some time to make what if plans to either ride it out or move to a specific place where you and the family can survive.  Think of the dust bowls of the 30's.  People left to find the three things they need (food water and shelter)
In my case if California colapses I would either ride it out or leave and head back to NC where we have a small family farm.

[MGMorden]

No, just a BIG, really BIG generic earthquake out of Yellowstone

More of a concern with Yellowstone is that there's a super-volcano beneath it's surface.  It typically erupts every 600,000 - 800,000 years, and it's overdue.  They've witnessed the surface swell up by a few feet in the last century.  

Supervolcanoes are not an ordinary level disaster.  If Yellowstone blows, 60-70% of the country will likely perish within the first day.  The rest of the country (and the entire globe) are going to be hit with a heck of a tough spot.  We know that humanity has survived at least 1 supervolcano eruption before (the last really big one was around 70,000 years ago IIRC in Sumatra, with a somewhat smaller one happening 25,000 years ago near New Zealand), but it's estimated that it nearly wiped us out, with us possibly going down as low as a few hundred survivors total.  

Yellowstone right now is really truly the ultimate SHTF scenario, at a global level.  It's up there with asteroid impact as far as devastation goes.

[bearmgc]

No, just a BIG, really BIG generic earthquake out of Yellowstone

More of a concern with Yellowstone is that there's a super-volcano beneath it's surface.  It typically erupts every 600,000 - 800,000 years, and it's overdue.  They've witnessed the surface swell up by a few feet in the last century.  

Supervolcanoes are not an ordinary level disaster.  If Yellowstone blows, 60-70% of the country will likely perish within the first day.  The rest of the country (and the entire globe) are going to be hit with a heck of a tough spot.  We know that humanity has survived at least 1 supervolcano eruption before (the last really big one was around 70,000 years ago IIRC in Sumatra, with a somewhat smaller one happening 25,000 years ago near New Zealand), but it's estimated that it nearly wiped us out, with us possibly going down as low as a few hundred survivors total.  

Yellowstone right now is really truly the ultimate SHTF scenario, at a global level.  It's up there with asteroid impact as far as devastation goes.

Yes, the super volcano. But SHTF response plan is nonexistant, because there will be no one within a 600mi radius that will be alive. The poisonous gases alone will quickly kill most folks, and the choking ash will result in painful death in the rest.  That is why its a Super volcano.

[Dee]

I find it amusing when I hear so called scientists talk about what happened 600,000,000 to 800,000,000 years ago. They don't have even a clue what happened because they don't have anything that they can prove is that old. Carbon dating has long since been proven inaccurate and has everything to do with atmospheric conditions, oxygen content ect.
If and when Yellowstone goes again most will not survive if it does as these geniuses predict. I worry more about the walking, and talking disasters that the natural one. You can at least see them coming.

[MGMorden]

I find it amusing when I hear so called scientists talk about what happened 600,000,000 to 800,000,000 years ago. They don't have even a clue what happened because they don't have anything that they can prove is that old. Carbon dating has long since been proven inaccurate and has everything to do with atmospheric conditions, oxygen content ect.
If and when Yellowstone goes again most will not survive if it does as these geniuses predict. I worry more about the walking, and talking disasters that the natural one. You can at least see them coming.

Carbon dating is still fairly accurate, but has a limit of around 60,000 years in dating accuracy.  Beyond that, there are a ton of alternative dating methods that can be used as well.  Uranium-lead dating in particular is incredibly accurate and can be used to go much farther back.  In particular, the two types of uranium (235 vs 238) can be compared against each other to make sure the decay measurements match up, providing built-in error checking.

[Dee]

Whom is there to VALIDATE that it was 60,000 years old. Not a soul. It's all pure speculation, JUST LIKE EVOLUTION. Recorded history goes back less than 10,000 years. In fact a couple thousand less. Pure speculation.

[mcwoodduck]

With large events like a super Volcano.
Would soil deposits not be the way to guess at how long ago?
If a super Volcano went off ash would be spued and the deposit of that layer of ash and the composition of that ash would determin the eruption.  Same way they figured out the Pompi eruption and the ash pattern from it.  That of course was a known event and aprox time.
As layers and layers of ash dust and other stuff are deposited they create layers in the soil and we can tell by how deep the layers are as to how long ago it was done. Carbon and other radio active dating systems are neat but the older the more accurate.  Half life is best done at those ages.  The problem with layers is you really do not know when the layer started, or when it ended and if storms, flood, or other event make the layer thicker and all pre history is at best a good guess based on recient history.
Only liberals and Pre historians can be off by so much constantly proven wrong and praised for their work.

[FourBee]

head back to NC where we have a small family farm. 

mcwoodduck; this seems to the best consensus from most people I've heard on this subject.  If you can, go for it while its still possible.

[SHOOTALL]

it will be when i have no future . none

[mcwoodduck]

head back to NC where we have a small family farm. 

mcwoodduck; this seems to the best consensus from most people I've heard on this subject.  If you can, go for it while its still possible.

I don't see that we are at the point where I need to up root and leave, YET.

[Dee]

My place is paid for, and I'm too old to run.

[Heather]

All I know for sure is when stuff does hit the fan Mr. Greybeard better look out cuz ready or not here we come!

Heather

[SHOOTALL]

So Dee you are good as long as the food , water and ammo last ?

[TribReady]

 We know that humanity has survived at least 1 supervolcano eruption before (the last really big one was around 70,000 years ago IIRC in Sumatra, with a somewhat smaller one happening 25,000 years ago near New Zealand),

Don't take this the wrong way, but man are you old!      

[FWiedner]

... it is groups, gangs and clans against the world?

Regional disaster is disturbing but irrelevant.  As time passes, there is eventual recovery.  For a real SHTF scenario, I envision a national financial collapse, ala Argentina, ala Zimbabwe, ala what's going to happen in Greece, and maybe Portugal, Italy, and Spain as well.  I envision street gangs, thug government entities, and deep, hard, merciless government taxation to the point of property seizures, incarcerations, and gun battles in the street.

 

How can a regional Disaster be irrelevant?  Clearly it was relivant to those in the disaster.  Earth quakes, floods, fires, Bugger eating morons flying planes into buildings.  Regional disasters more likely than a global  or national economic collapse.  And even with a economic collapse Food will still be produced and brought to market.  May not be the wide variety that they have now but there will be food in the markets.  Actually I take that ack with the government in collapse there will be less restrictions, rules and taxes that may allow for more food to be in the markets and Dee will be able to have his yellow cake with Chocolate Icing.  
I am looking at history and seeing what has happened as disasters  and how long they took to correct, 6 weeks seems to be the get back to normal time frame.  In an economic collapse you will see it comming and be able to have some time to make what if plans to either ride it out or move to a specific place where you and the family can survive.  Think of the dust bowls of the 30's.  People left to find the three things they need (food water and shelter)
In my case if California colapses I would either ride it out or leave and head back to NC where we have a small family farm.

Regional disaster is irrelevant because unless it's in my region, there's a 9 out of 10 chance that it won't affect me in any appreciable way.  

In a major disaster that affected everyone, everywhere, the first thing that will happen is government will step on the civilian population and lawful commerce like a big crunchy bug.  They'll claim it's for product safety reasons and to prevent harding, but it will be to make sure that the peasants know who's in control and to ensure that the political class gets it's share first.  It'll be just like North Korea, make sure the army and politicians are well fed, and everyone else can dry up an blow away.

IMO, in the major disaster scenario, there's every chance that 's you'd never make it from CA to NC because you wouldn't be able to provision yourself for and on the journey, the government would prevent you by regulation, or you'd be diverted along the way by violent misfortune.

 

[Oldshooter]

But on a more serious note, I would look at what is happening in Greece right now, and imagine it getting worse. Could be coming to your neighborhood soon.

That is spot on DEE!! Look at Greece and follow it! Its a preview of where we are headed! 3 of 5 people in Greece work for the government!! READ THAT AGAIN!!!  Factor in Unions and what not and you see a tunnel with no light at the end!

Here is my vision, The food chain gets broken and the obama supporters in the Cities come to the country to get what you have and eat you if there is nothing else. All you big uns stand up and all you lil uns group up! Oh yea and pray, and then pass the ammunition!
 

[Land_Owner]

Ever see the Kevin Costner movie "The Mailman"?  Circa turn-of-the-nightmare following a continental US/world disaster.  Something like that for the survivors.  Or Kurt Russell's "Escape From New York"?  Gang violence.  Or "Dawn of the Dead"...or "I am Legend".  Dang, I watch too many DVD's.  I need to go to the range more often.

History channel suggests when the side of the Azores Islands drops off due to volcanic activity that the resulting Mega Tidal Wave sweeping westward will inundate Florida with a 100-foot tall wave of Ocean.  Surviving that will be the stuff of Legend.  You guys can line up for cheap "waterfront" property deep in the hearts of GA, AL, MS, AR, OK and parts of TX.

The human condition already "survives" hurricanes, tornados, floods, heat waves, drought, famine, locust, other inhumane human to human interaction, and a host of other maladies.  Perhaps, before the BIG ONE takes us out, assuming we can tell when that event is likely, we will unleash our nukes on the Diapper Heads, N. Koreans, and the "Usual Suspects" in the hopes that We The People will be the survivors to inherit the Earth.  WTH, why not?

[SHOOTALL]

it seems ya'll are stuck on biggies . The day the valve snapped off a 150 oxy bottle it was a SHTF day for me and it only lasted a couple min.

[Dee]

So Dee you are good as long as the food , water and ammo last ?

I bend as far as necessary, but I have limits.

[Land_Owner]

Personally speaking, it was the day I roasted my own arse, 2nd degree, to 12% of body surface using old tractor gasoline to start a fire in a brush pile.  Good example of a Bad example and glad to still be here.

Been Away.  Got Burned