At a recent conference the issue of plummeting birth rates in the west came up as a contributing factor to some other issues. The data is clear, verifiable, and available, but clearly not on the front page, so here's some numbers.
Replacement Rate is 2.1 children per couple; this is the minimum average number necessary to keep a population static (i.e. not shrinking, not growing).
- US is presently at 1.9 and falling; we have not been at 2.1 since the 70s.
- Western Europe averages between 1.4 and 0.9 (Italy is at 0.9)
- Japan is at 1.4
No nation in the history of mankind has survived once it dropped below 1.3.
But wait, you say, the population is increasing! Immigration and longevity are contributing to the final #s, but birth rates are still dropping.
There is an inverse relationship between economy and birth rate, i.e. higher the standard of living, the lower the birth rate. Yep, that's right, all our advanced medical technology and we produce fewer healthy living children than the midwives in the 3rd world per family. And their own numbers would be higher still with improved medical procedures.
Australia, France, Japan, and Russia are all paying people to have children. Russia was at 140million in 2005, they will be at 70 million by 2050, they're dropping at a rate of 700K per year (low birth rate, low longevity). They are paying women to stay at home and have children; 180 out from USSR policy.
From a purely social scientific analysis, we do not value children even at the most essential level of survival.
Why is this do you suppose?
