I don't see the House passing it. Same as the Senate won't pass the Health Care repeal. The main argument should be " Where was their protective detail?" Congresswoman with a Federal Judge? That guy should have been detained or "otherwise halted". They should have been protected, even if it meant out of pocket. Entirely an unnecessary incident....... They should blame their staff...... not America.
Thats of course the problem. Political deal making. The democrats cannot back down on the health care bill. The reason they lost the election was NOT because "everyone was angry over the socialist health care bill". Thats just GOP red colored glasses. Yes,it energized the conservatives and that definitely helped but its so much more complex than that. The democrats were demoralized because they spent a year arguing over it,watering it down and trying to get GOP support,and failing to get ANY GOP support and then lost control their supermajority anyway. Make no mistake about it,the democratic base wanted the democrats to take their opportunity to implement ALL of the issues such as a full blown single payer health care system,sweeping environmental and renewable energy reforms and every other thing they have been talking about for years. They in fact EXPECTED at least some effort to do those things. If you doubt that,think about it for a second,when the conservatives were in that situation,GW did what the base elected him to do. Liberals hated him for it,but they would have hated him anyway. Liberals hate him as much as conservatives hate Obama. Actually,they hate him more,because while Obama really has not done nearly as much as liberals wanted him to,GW was very responsive to the core conservative base with things like tax cuts and his faith based initiatives.At the end of it all,GW got his second term. That being said,the democrats cant get negotiate away most of the health care bill because honestly,its one of the few things they did that even resemble what their base wants. Republicans will never come over to their side,so honestly,they dont care what they want. They have to get their own base out to vote,and then win enough moderates to make up the difference to win the election.
The risk is this,that the democrats decide that they REALLY want gun control,because it could be a big win and now they see a way to get it. They wont negotiate away the health care bill,but they know all the incoming members of the house who campaigned on getting rid of it NEED to get rid of at least some of it. If they spend the next two years tilting at windmills,they will suffer the same fate as the democrats who got nothing done. They need something,and to get that something,they need to give something. The least popular part of the health care bill,in fact the ONLY part people really complain about (seriously,tell me another part that most people don't like,that ACTUALLY IS IN THE BILL. Stuff that really isn't in there does not count!) is the individual mandate. That bothers a lot of people on BOTH sides of the fence. Honestly,MOST people DONT CARE about esoteric arguments about market driven health care solutions being the most efficient ,but look at fining someone who does not have health care and think "Thats just not right"
It seems like kicking someone when they are down. All of the esoteric economic arguments of how the pieces of the bill tie together ,or how a market driven reform might work is meaningless to them. The problem is of course,the individual mandate is necessary for other more popular parts to work (lets not get into a debate over whether or not it works at all,its there for a reason,and whether you think it does not work or think its great,the individual mandate serves an important,even pivotal purpose in the legislation). In general,people LIKE the idea that insurance companies cant deny coverage (or charge crazy rates) to babies born with pre-existing conditions. The problem of course is,if your going to do those sorts of things,you either need a single payer system,which is just never going to happen here,or the individual mandate (which was ironically a republican idea) or pehaps some sort market driven solution that does the same thing and somehow gives insurance companies an incentive to make health care affordable and cover those children. Any way you do it,you have to spread the costs around,because that's how health coverages (of which insurance is only one kind) work. Its easier for most people to understand a law that says "you have to cover them" than a set of incentives,tax breaks and other things given to insurance companies and businesses that most people would see as a handout. Thats something people can get their head around,its the law,so they HAVE to do it. (and they wont think about the potential issues it might cause,or how certain things are necessary to support that) Essentiall they might make a compromise so that everyone feels they are getting what they want and has something to take home to their constituents.
What Im worried about is that the GOP will strike a deal.
Certain members of the house who are not up for re-election will support the gun control bill. There will be just enough votes to get it to squeak through. It will easily pass the senate,and the republicans in contested districts and states will still be able to say "I voted against it!" and keep their NRA ratings. In return, the democrats will sign on to repealing the individual mandate. What they wont repeal are the provisions that the individual mandate was required to support like elimination of pre-existing conditions. Without that,then people can just sign up for the cheapest insurance,or none at all until they need coverage for something really expensive,then increase their insurance to pay for it. It changes the whole risk calculation. The HARD part,how do you vote to take away the requirement that insurance companies pay for infants congenital heart defects will be put off for a few years. They will decide that it will happen AFTER the 2012 elections,so in their own self interest,none of the current politicians will want to tackle it now. Republicans will think,"We can use our victory repealing part of the health care bill to win big in 2012 and then repeal the whole damn thing,after all,now that we got rid of the mandate,the whole thing is impossible anyway!" Democrats will think "We can use the fact that we are being responsive to voters and "reworked (really,nothing will be reworked,just an essential provision of the legislation removed without any way to fix it) an unpopular provision of the bill,as well as our big win on gun control to energize our base." They will say that while the GOP wanted to do nothing other than scrap the entire bill,never the less they managed to compromise and make the bill better. The GOP will be able to say they took the first steps to undoing it. The Dems will say they resisted GOP attempts to eliminate while actually managing to "improve it" At the end of the day,the health care issues will BE WORSE than they were with the bill as passed,and will be worse than they were BEFORE the bill was passed. (because really,when it comes down to it,no politician wants to be the one that took medical care away from sick babies). I dont even pretend to know how that mess will pay out. It will depend on who manages to play the politics game best but will probably just be a mess especially if neither party wins really big in 2012.
What we will have is a big fat gun control bill that wont stop with high capacity magazines. (after all,the Dems support to chip off a piece of their big accomplishment wont come cheap)
