Author Topic: Understanding Derivatives  (Read 363 times)

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Offline Brett

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Understanding Derivatives
« on: February 09, 2011, 11:36:51 AM »
My Father in-law e-mailed this to me, it's a pretty good analogy.

Understanding Derivatives

Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit . She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.

Heidi keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers' loans). Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in  Detroit .

By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS. These securities then are bundled and traded on international securities markets.

Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds really are debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi.

Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Heidi's 11 employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community. The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from their cronies in government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Heidi's bar.

Now do you understand?

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Offline scootrd

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Re: Understanding Derivatives
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2011, 11:59:58 AM »
My Father in-law e-mailed this to me, it's a pretty good analogy.

Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community. The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from their cronies in government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Heidi's bar.

Now do you understand?



Yep That's it Ina nutshell...

And all would have been fine in the housing MKT as well..except for that very studious Banking person was doing due diligence and actually asked  the question no one else would ... What is the True value of these bundled notes. ..............  OOPS!!!!! and the walls came  crumbling down !!!!!.

Funny thing about your analogy is thats how my father -in -law ran his bar business for years...Of course when it was time to pay a Tab there was always Vinnie three fingers Fannelli ensuring he was promptly paid ..unemployed or not.
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Offline teamnelson

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Re: Understanding Derivatives
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2011, 12:45:22 PM »
Wow, that's good. If you don't mind, I'd like to share that with some pretty smart high schoolers studying macroecon and civics right now.
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Offline blind ear

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Re: Understanding Derivatives
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2011, 03:09:06 PM »
TN, is the basic ecconomic cycle still taught? ear
Oath Keepers: start local
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“It is no coincidence that the century of total war coincided with the century of central banking.” – Ron Paul, End the Fed
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An economic crash like the one of the 1920s is the only thing that will get the US off of the road to Socialism that we are on and give our children a chance at a future with freedom and possibility of economic success.
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everyone hears but very few see. (I can't see either, I'm not on the corporate board making rules that sound exactly the opposite of what they mean, plus loopholes) ear
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Offline Brett

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Re: Understanding Derivatives
« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2011, 04:32:44 PM »
Wow, that's good. If you don't mind, I'd like to share that with some pretty smart high schoolers studying macroecon and civics right now.

You don't need my permission TN.  Like I stated my FIL sent it to me and I have no idea who the original author is nor does he I'm sure. 
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