Stock up now or Shut up later!

[Old Syko]

Had the opportunity to speak with a number of component suppliers, wholesalers and a few retailers recently and the consensus seems to be another so-called shortage in the offing.  Prices are about as low as most expect them to go and availability is fair right now, but with an election coming up and atrocities of all sorts taking place around the world and here at home, everyone thinks in the near future supplies will dwindle yet again and prices will skyrocket to new heights.  Most of the folks I spoke with are warehousing or planning to warehouse as much as they can afford to help avoid new hikes.  We as handloaders need to follow their lead.  If you wait to pick up supplies as you want or need they may not be there and if they are prices will be out of this world.  If you don't stock up while you can you have no right to call others who have chosen to be prepared, "hoarders".  You'll have nobody to blame if you run out or can't afford the new prices but yourself.   

[Wyo. Coyote Hunter]

  Syko, you might be quite right...about 15 years ago, I decided things never get cheaper and decided to lay in a supply of stuff for when I retired..glad I did...I will not tell some of the prices I paid for stuff then, but it sure hasn't gotten cheaper..I still add to my stock when I get the chance, sometime ago I picked up 10 pounds of 3031 for about $13/can..never shot much of it before, but will shoot 10 pounds in the coming years..If I don't use it all, I have some younger friends who I KNOW will...

[Buckskin]

I have heard the same rumblings, and several websites state that they will be raising prices soon.  I made a decent haul a month or so ago to get me through for a while, but don't have nearly enough for my lifetime, much less my kids...

[Old Fart]

How much will I need for the rest of my life?   

I'm afraid I can't afford that many right now. Guess I'll buy what I can.
I was thinking it was about time to put another order in anyway.

[Wyo. Coyote Hunter]

  Just spent a few minutes at my shooting pal's house..during the visit the price of reloading comp. came up..he said he had heard on Sirius radio, the ammo and related items will triple in the next mths...don't mean to scare folks, just what he heard on a radio talk show dealing with our rights as gun owners....

[Old Syko]

Wyo. I just don't buy it.  Yes there are increases coming, but to triple in 3 months I don't buy.  I think some folks are riding so close to panic mode that they let any little thing push them into la la land.  Don't panic!  Instead take a deep breath and be as prepared as you're able.  Tell your buddy to turn down the talk radio and pick up a new roll of Reynolds Wrap.  

The point of this post was to let folks know at least some of the suppliers are looking for ways like working together to build up stocks on their own to help minimize future damage.  There is no such thing as hoarding.  It is nothing more than a word used by folks who aren't smart enough to be prepared.

How much will I need for the rest of my life?   

If I could answer this, I would give you the next winning lottery numbers also.      Well, maybe the set after that.   

[Land_Owner]

Widner's Reloading and Shooting Supply says, http://www.wideners.com/index.cfm :

NOTICE:

Large price increases for all ammunition and components are coming in April and May 2011. Record high costs of primary metals such as lead and copper are cited as part of the reason.   

The last time suppliers were this "paranoid" prices doubled.  Call it what you want, prices go up rapidly and may, stress may fall slightly, but never return to baseline from which they sprang.

[Wyo. Coyote Hunter]

  Syko, As I said, I didn't mean to scare folks....as for myself, I am pretty well set unless I would get into some unreal prairie dog shooting, which is not likely in todays world...at least not in my area...I am not certain it was three mths, he just said in the next months..so folks can take it for what it is worth...for myself, I have noticed as I travel around the country that many of the Wy. gunshops and sports stores have large supplies of powder, bullets, and primers on the shelves..I did buy some 45 Colt bullets I wanted to try, and they were high, but not over priced...It has long been my feeling and i am sure yours, this stuff doesn't mold, doesn't eat anything, and never gets cheaper, so I have always tried to keep stocked up..only wise buying as I see it....

[Spanky]

Paranoid people cause the paranoia.



Spanky

[Old Syko]

Agreed Wyo., This stuff stores well either in component form or all together.  I shoot a lot compared to most folks, short of high volume competition shooters and my stores are in good shape for some years to come.  Just in the last couple years been trying to stock my son up a bit better than he is. 

Land_Owner, I've seen the Wideners ad for some time now and others like it.  Here it is April and I just bought components cheaper than they have been in almost 3 years.  At a show this weekend I saw retailers pushing their wares with signs stating it may be your last chance to buy before the government eliminates sales.  I don't scare that easily and I don't look my best dressed in tin foil and I certainly won't be badgered into panic buying so that someone can show a profit.  I'm not saying that is what Wideners and others are trying to do but only time will tell.  Therefore the smart money is on being prepared rather than being left out and looking for someone to blame once it's too late.      

[Old Syko]

Paranoid people cause the paranoia.



Spanky

Even paranoia has some root in the truth.   

[SteveHawaii]

Gun stores around here are kind of anxious for a run on supplies.  Seems it's been a bit slow since Christmas.  Plus, I think there's more competition.  They're praying for Obama to make some more noise so sales go back up again.

[necchi]

Ya mean the sky is falling again!

Gun stores around here are kind of anxious for a run on supplies.  Seems it's been a bit slow since Christmas.

 Yes, that's the story at my two local suppliers too, last few months have been slow. They kinda figured guys where waiting for winter to break (which it finally has) and then sales would pick up.
 It hasn't.
 I expect costs to rise some simply because of shipping, but Gadd's, I hope they don't start not hoarding and being smart enough to be prepared again!
 

[Old Fart]

I'm pretty sure I have already picked up or ordered enough primers for most of my lifetime needs for rifles as I don't shoot them all that much compared to pistols.
But me getting enough small pistol primers probably won't happen, so I'll just stay hostage to the market there so to speak.
I try and keep enough that I don't need to panic or anything, but realistically there may well come a point when I'll need to be "Judicious" with them.

[tmccray45]

All I know is that when I drifted by the rifle section of my WalMart this morning, I had never seen so much ammo on their shelves!  All calibers were in great supply.

And, there seems to be no trouble getting powder and primers at my local Bass Pro.

[hornady]

I may be wrong and it would not be the first time, but do you think some of the suppliers may be looking back on last years hoarding with dollar signs in their eyes.
All they need is the rumor of a shortages or higher prices to start the run on components.
Realistically how much copper is in a thousand primers?
Lead shot has taken many out of loading shot shells, but that is more in the transportation cost of shipping lead.
Every thing I read about last year’s shortage, it was brought on by hoarding, and nothing more.
Hopefully common sense will prevail, and we do not end up cutting our own throats again.

[Old Syko]

I may be wrong and it would not be the first time, but do you think some of the suppliers may be looking back on last years hoarding with dollar signs in their eyes.
All they need is the rumor of a shortages or higher prices to start the run on components.
Realistically how much copper is in a thousand primers?
Lead shot has taken many out of loading shot shells, but that is more in the transportation cost of shipping lead.
Every thing I read about last year’s shortage, it was brought on by hoarding, and nothing more.
Hopefully common sense will prevail, and we do not end up cutting our own throats again.

Well  if this is what you believe, either you're mistaken or I don't know the definition of hoarding.  The components simply couldn't be produced in the volume necessary to keep up with demand.  Got any idea how many rounds are shot up in Afghanistan in a day?  How about all the military bases around the world who train daily.  If I have enough components on hand to last my lifetime am I a hoarder or do I just see the handwriting on the wall and live prepared?

The gentlemen I spoke with are looking to warehouse enough for private sale to help avoid shortages.  Will they ask higher prices than they did 5 years ago?  You bet!  What kind of fool invests The millions of dollars they are investing without expecting a profit?

The shortages of the last couple years were brought on by ignorance and not hoarding.  People expected things to continue as they had been in the recent past and were foolish enough to not plan for anything else.  I was amazed at how many didn't remember the shortages of the 90's and of those who did, how many failed to learn from it.

[hornady]

I normally don’t like to use CNN as a source of information, but these two facts can be Goggled.

The real fact of the matter is that the military got the bulk of its small arms (pistol, rifle, machine gun) ammunition from one contracted ammunition plant, and that plant wasn’t even running near capacity.

Gun shops across the country are reporting a run on ammunition, a phenomenon apparently driven by fear that the Obama administration will increase taxes on bullets or enact new gun-control measures.
"In the last two months it's gotten very, very difficult to find ammunition," says Richard Taylor, manager of The Firing Line, a gun shop and shooting range in the Denver, Colorado, suburbs.
"There are a lot of rumors floating around that the present government would like to increase taxes on ammunition. I think [there is] just a lot of panicked buying going on."

[Grumulkin]

Well gentlemen, do you remember back in the 1990s when the rumor was going around that primers were going to be made so they would deactivate themselves in 2 or 3 years?  There was panic buying then; you couldn't get primers for several months.  That's when I learned my lesson so, when the Obama scare came along, while others were bitching about how people were "hoarding" supplies I was hardly inconvenienced at all.

There are several facts:

1.  The prices of metals are up so ammunition prices will have to follow.

2.  At least around here, there is no shortage of ammunition though some types of primers are still in short supply like Federal 210M but, if you're not picky, you can buy primers.

3.  If there are enough people that didn't learn their lesson in the first 4 years, we could have 4 more years of Obama.  Since he wouldn't have anything to lose, he might take that opportunity to push through legislation he didn't dare to before.

4.  There are bound to be more reloading scares and supply shortages.

[Old Syko]

Who am I to dispute CNN with the words of my nephew who has been to Iraq and 2 trips to Afghanistan during the shortage here but he and his buddies used ammo from so many different countries that it became odd to see something show up from this country.  Will I believe the talking heads or the voices of my own relatives and friends in the industry?

Well gentlemen, do you remember back in the 1990s when the rumor was going around that primers were going to be made so they would deactivate themselves in 2 or 3 years?  There was panic buying then; you couldn't get primers for several months.  That's when I learned my lesson so, when the Obama scare came along, while others were bitching about how people were "hoarding" supplies I was hardly inconvenienced at all.

There are several facts:

1.  The prices of metals are up so ammunition prices will have to follow.

2.  At least around here, there is no shortage of ammunition though some types of primers are still in short supply like Federal 210M but, if you're not picky, you can buy primers.

3.  If there are enough people that didn't learn their lesson in the first 4 years, we could have 4 more years of Obama.  Since he wouldn't have anything to lose, he might take that opportunity to push through legislation he didn't dare to before.

4.  There are bound to be more reloading scares and supply shortages.

Same here Grumulkin.  I didn't come up short in the 90's.  I didn't come up short during the last fiasco.  I won't come up short in the next either.

[res45]

  I didn't come up short in the 90's.  I didn't come up short during the last fiasco.  I won't come up short in the next either.

Same here,I continue to enjoy shooting all my guns and reloading my own ammo for whatever purpose I see fit to use it for,and now that I cast my own bullets I'm even less dependent on market forces as to the cost of components.  I did all this while I was unemployed for almost two years,how because before that I had stock up on the necessary things I needed by doing the research to find good deals and buy in bulk whenever possible.  I missed out on some good deals because of the monetary situation but I scored on some as well.

I made it a point a long time ago to make sure I never had to depend on factory ammo availability at any given point in time as to when I can hunt,shoot or defend myself and family.  I guess people forget we are in a bad economy,have multiple wars going on and service men and women all over the world defending this country. 

On the economy side the cost of everything has and is continuing to go up,raw material used in the ammo manufacturing process,namely Copper, Brass and Lead have exploded and the fuel cost to extract those element from the ground,import and purchase them add to the cost,a business can only eat so much of the cost before profits start taking a hit,if you don't plan on making a profit then you want be in business very long.  If you think the ammo mfg. are gouging you start your own company and give your ammo away cheaper than you can produce it.

On the Military side at one point when we had multiple conflict going on, Federal Premium/ATK which also operates the Lake City ammo plant and also owns all these companies just to name a few redirected lots of resources away form the public sector of ammo production.  So during  a time of war where do you think the resources to provide components for military use are going to,and less we forget about law enforcement who consume large amounts of ammo as well,especially since more departments have more specialized military style units now days.

Alliant Powder
Black Cloud Ammo
CCI Ammunition
Champion
Estate Cartridge
Federal Premium
Fusion Ammunition
Gunslick
Law Enforcement
Nitrex
Outers
Ram-Line
RCBS
Shooters Ridge
Speer Ammo
Speer Bullets
Weaver 

Price are higher not just for factory ammo but reloading components as well but there are still good deals out there but you have to look and buy in bulk when you fine them,group buys help cover the cost of shipping and hazmat.  Nothing is as cheap as it has been in the past and it never will be again so you have two choices pay and get the best deal you can find or do without.

[stimpylu32]

Widner's Reloading and Shooting Supply says, http://www.wideners.com/index.cfm :

NOTICE:

Large price increases for all ammunition and components are coming in April and May 2011. Record high costs of primary metals such as lead and copper are cited as part of the reason.   

The last time suppliers were this "paranoid" prices doubled.  Call it what you want, prices go up rapidly and may, stress may fall slightly, but never return to baseline from which they sprang.

The biggest reason for this is whats happening in Japan right now , between that and China buying everything that they can get their hands on , the cost of raw materials will climb drasticly in the next few months and stay that way for over the next 2 years .

stimpy