Squirrelluck had the situation dead on...
I predicted the situation right here on GBO, just a couple days before the election.
http://www.gboreloaded.com/forums/index.php?action=profile;u=7099;area=showposts;start=30 I live just a few miles outside that district. . The congressman was was in that seat just last term (Tom Reynolds) is a personal friend of mine.
That is a basically, conservative district..but some voters are still not very observant or analytical. Jack Davis, the Democrat's selected "spoiler' did his job well. Davis has been a lifelong Democrat but for this election he pretended to be an independent and hired professional campaigners to come in from Massachusetts to "till the garden" so to speak.
Davis even claimed to be 'Tea Party' , even though none of the TP regulars wanted anything to do with him. He had one fellow claim to be a Tea party boss ..then endorse Jack Davis. I guess nobody has yet copywritten the Tea Party name !
His 9% would have almost entirely went to the GOP candidate, nmaking about a 5% win for Corwin. The national Democrats poured millions in behind Hochul, even though she disavowed many of Obama's ideas (she had to).
People in the know locally, view it not as a Democrat win or Republican loss...but more as the lightly informed voter especially, saying " I don't want either major party". Many of the voters are lightly informed...
The Dems touted this as a "win" for Obamacare because the big vote in the senate yesterday..they needed it..and spent many millions, plus financing a "stalking horse" campaign to do it .
The big lesson is to conservative voters is, watch out for Democrats pretending to be "independents"..."wolves in sheep's clothing"..