Broadly stated, velocity is determined by the area under the time:pressure curve. The term "spike" isn't well defined so it often gets misunderstood and confused. Seems a LOT of people think it simply means the peak pressure is too high without regard to its duration. "Spike's" original use was to explain that a rapid rise and fall of pressure due to a too fast powder could easily reach and exceed max safe peak pressure but be so brief that the velocity would be less than proper.
IF the correct powder burn rate is used for the cartridge and bullet weight the velocity will normally be at or near the projected velocity so, within rational limits, a chronograph can strongly suggest pressure. However, small variations from the norm such as actual bore/bullet diameter, the effects of the lands when engraving the jacket, the jacket material and shank length, primer briesance, actual burn rate of the powder lot, which way the ducks are flying, etc. IF a combination of those variables are in play they can increase the pressure. What many don't quite understand is the burn rate of a powder is highly dependant on the pressure of combustion; if the pressure goes up the burn rate is faster and they can combine to produce a spike where one should not be! Thus, a chronograph reading is a valid aid to judging pressure but it sure ain't anything to bet your azz on.
I do load development with the ladder method starting low and using small charge increments, usually .2 or .3 grain per step. I record and plot the increase in speed for each increase in powder as I shoot. I've easily observed non-linear velosity progressions when charges (and pressures) are too low but they usually become much more linear as the correct pressure is approached. And, should things go screwy as the charges are increased still further, I at least suspect I'm rapidly approaching the squirrely/spikey pressure range and stop no matter what my manual suggests.