Author Topic: note on poor corn crop (Read 3289 times)

Cornbelt · « **on:** August 26, 2012, 03:06:36 PM »

Now might be a good time to buy meat ahead if you aren't raising or hunting it. Don't know how bad things are gonna get, but its bound to raise meat prices.
Some fields don't have much more than an ear or two. One neighbor was figuring 5 bu/acre when the average for him is 150+. So he sold it for 'silage. Late rains didn't help.
Gov't. being petitioned to lower the required amount of ethanol per gal. of gasoline in order to allow more corn for feed, and in another month when the figures start coming in, it could cause meat prices to go way up.

The good news is: The deer will still get all the corn they want.

keith44 · « **Reply #1 on:** August 26, 2012, 03:51:17 PM »

corn prices were at $8.60 last week (last time I checked) Locally some are dumping cattle on the market. I expect to see beef prices to bottom out in October and November. Starting just in time for Christmas I predict all meat prices to become unaffordable for about half of US citizens.

JonnyReb · « **Reply #2 on:** August 26, 2012, 05:15:49 PM »

My own backyard corn did poorly this year, and it was both hand pollinated and watered. Kinda weird. To the OP, I think almost all of the local farmers are selling theirs as silage also as its not fit for much else, seems like that would bring down the cost of raising cattle but we all know that we're not going to see anything but prices rise on EVERY commodity. Even though i'm far from self sufficient, makes me happy to do the backyard garden, raise chickens and be able to hunt. Venisons a great alternative to beef. J

Lloyd Smale · « **Reply #3 on:** August 27, 2012, 02:04:41 AM »

talked to the potatoe farmer we do crop damage shooting for about it. He grows a few fields of corn for his cattle. He said he probably had the only good corn crop in the area. reason is potatoes take alot of moisture and his fields are all set up for boom irrigators, so he watered his all summer. We had more moisture this year then most and our corn crop still isnt really good.

guzzijohn · « **Reply #4 on:** August 27, 2012, 05:09:15 AM »

Prices may not jump to bad as I think there will be quite a bit of feed around from corn turned into silage and a lot of soybeans are being cut and baled here. Prices may spike some while herds are getting built back up. Overall quality may suffer some due to lack of corn to finish the cattle off with.
GuzziJohn

Ranch13 · « **Reply #5 on:** August 27, 2012, 07:17:54 AM »

There's likely to be a jump in beef prices , but it's likely to be more a result of the amount of beef available than the cost of the feed. There's 10's of thousands of head of breeding stock that went to slaughter just since June, even if it starts raining and relieves the pasture lands it'll take 2 years minimum to replace those cows.
The ethanol thing is just so much handwringing, the vast majority of the grain that goes into ethanol production comes back out as livestock feed, so there's no net loss in livestock feed there.

cjclemens · « **Reply #6 on:** August 27, 2012, 12:43:22 PM »

Beef prices will go up, as producers are currently selling off animals they cant afford to feed. The problem is two fold - with corn at $8 per bushel, there is not an animal being fed in the US without financial loss. Feedlots will not continue to operate in the red for long. There are alternatives, like wheat and other grains, but using those will affect other food prices. The other part of the problem is cow/calf operations - a lot of these operations work from pastures that are dried up and dead. Hay is scarce and very expensive. These producers are cutting back herds in order to make ends meet.

With all the beef being sold hitting the market in relatively short order, we will see a brief drop in prices. However, that drop will short lived. Once the excess beef has cleared the market and demand remains the same, prices will start to raise throughout the next year. The real trouble with beef production is that its based on a 1 calf per cow per year reproductive rate. If producers cut herds back to half the current size, it'll be two years before production is back to normal. If they cut herds down to 1/4 the current size, it'll take 4 years to get back to normal production. Make no mistake, beef prices will be on the rise. It will not likely be seen until next year - but it will be a significant and long term increase.

Ranch13 · « **Reply #7 on:** August 27, 2012, 01:28:53 PM »

Oddly enough the on the hoof prices are still well above or at what they were a year ago. I just took a cull cow to town she weighed 1200 and brought .72, I've sold truck loads of cows for half that much.Baloney bulls are bringing over a dollar.
Listening to the market reports boxed beef is still bringing close to 1.90.
The video sales on calves for delivery later this fall is still bringing what amounts to 750-800$ a head, so those buyers aren't horrible worried about the market.
I can get thru the winter pretty good with hay we carried over from last year, and feeding cake and other supplements , and only feeding hay thru the winter when the ground is covered, and even if I have to buy a few loads of hay at 250$, but what scares the bejeebers out of me is going to all this trouble to get thru the winter and then what happens if it don't rain again next spring.....

hillbill · « **Reply #8 on:** August 27, 2012, 02:35:19 PM »

Quote from: Ranch13 on August 27, 2012, 01:28:53 PM

Oddly enough the on the hoof prices are still well above or at what they were a year ago. I just took a cull cow to town she weighed 1200 and brought .72, I've sold truck loads of cows for half that much.Baloney bulls are bringing over a dollar.
Listening to the market reports boxed beef is still bringing close to 1.90.
The video sales on calves for delivery later this fall is still bringing what amounts to 750-800$ a head, so those buyers aren't horrible worried about the market.
I can get thru the winter pretty good with hay we carried over from last year, and feeding cake and other supplements , and only feeding hay thru the winter when the ground is covered, and even if I have to buy a few loads of hay at 250$, but what scares the bejeebers out of me is going to all this trouble to get thru the winter and then what happens if it don't rain again next spring.....

we are in same situation here in sw mo.and yes, what if it dont rain this spring? we got enuf hay to make spring but it will be close.beef price is not really that high if you factor in the cost of diesel to make hay and the cost of tires and parts for your equip.
to be honest even tho i have cows i have no idea who could afford to buy store beef? im going to save back a calf to butcher in the spring but even then considering what it is worth and processing it will cost me a 1000$ bill.and i dont feed them corn jus butcher rite off the grass. if i can get enuf venison in the freezer that calf will go to town for sum city people to eat!

bilmac · « **Reply #9 on:** August 27, 2012, 02:45:35 PM »

Lloyd Did you go to the Dan Quayle school for spelling.

Ranch13 · « **Reply #10 on:** August 27, 2012, 02:47:40 PM »

I can remember topping the market with 32 cent calves, and it hasn't been all that long ago that we no saled the steers at 45.
The price of beef is not quite where it should be in relation to other things. In 1972 a dozen 400 lb calves would buy the best pickup Detroit could deliver to the place. Today a 100 of those calves won't buy a pickup at the dealership.
Feeding your own beef only works if you have a batch of scrap feed you need to convert to something, or if you have something that you wouldn't want to take to the sale barn. Otherwise it's cheaper , quicker , and easier to get a butcher beef from the local butcher shop. Just keeping that calf to feed up is going to cost you 800$, then you add the price of the grain and hay, and your time, then throw on top of that another 60 cents for processing...

keith44 · « **Reply #11 on:** August 27, 2012, 03:46:59 PM »

We feed out three calves every spring, one is traded to local Amish for the grain to fatten them, and one is sold for 1.50 / pound on the hoof delivered to a local processor the last is for us, cost of processing is all we are out.

hunt-m-up · « **Reply #12 on:** August 27, 2012, 05:42:19 PM »

Quote from: Ranch13 on August 27, 2012, 01:28:53 PM

Oddly enough the on the hoof prices are still well above or at what they were a year ago. I just took a cull cow to town she weighed 1200 and brought .72, I've sold truck loads of cows for half that much.Baloney bulls are bringing over a dollar.
Listening to the market reports boxed beef is still bringing close to 1.90.
The video sales on calves for delivery later this fall is still bringing what amounts to 750-800$ a head, so those buyers aren't horrible worried about the market.
I can get thru the winter pretty good with hay we carried over from last year, and feeding cake and other supplements , and only feeding hay thru the winter when the ground is covered, and even if I have to buy a few loads of hay at 250$, but what scares the bejeebers out of me is going to all this trouble to get thru the winter and then what happens if it don't rain again next spring.....

Fields that normally do 150 to 200 bushels around here are coming in at 45 to ? with some being chopped, but most just harvested 1-2 months early. Corn is light, 50lbs, and drying fast, should make propane cheaper for heating this winter? Hay is crazy, $3-400 with some small squares going for $6-8/bale , expect the tub grinders will be running pretty busy this fall feeding some 2-3 year old stuff, cornstalk bales, etc. Seems like cow/bull prices are sure hanging in there, wonder where it will bring us to?
I don't completely agree about beef prices in the store, there's a threshold for most people and there are a lot of pork chops/roasts being sold as well as poultry when beef gets up there. The guys that control the supply get a little nervous when they can't move their product.

Ranch13 · « **Reply #13 on:** August 27, 2012, 05:56:50 PM »

Quote from: hunt-m-up on August 27, 2012, 05:42:19 PM

Quote from: Ranch13 on August 27, 2012, 01:28:53 PM

Fields that normally do 150 to 200 bushels around here are coming in at 45 to ? with some being chopped, but most just harvested 1-2 months early. Corn is light, 50lbs, and drying fast, should make propane cheaper for heating this winter? Hay is crazy, $3-400 with some small squares going for $6-8/bale , expect the tub grinders will be running pretty busy this fall feeding some 2-3 year old stuff, cornstalk bales, etc. Seems like cow/bull prices are sure hanging in there, wonder where it will bring us to?
I don't completely agree about beef prices in the store, there's a threshold for most people and there are a lot of pork chops/roasts being sold as well as poultry when beef gets up there. The guys that control the supply get a little nervous when they can't move their product.
It'll be a month or two before they combine any corn around here. There's some that probably will go to silage, but that'll have to happen pretty darn quick before the fall freezes hit.If there is alot of silage put up that may help bring the hay prices down a tad, mostly on the valley video hay auctions you can get some dang good hay from 2-250.
Yes folks will whine and cry and stomp about the cost of food, but they won't give up the unlimited cellphone accounts and hispeed internet...they won't stop and figure out how much they're spending in the restraunts verses cooking at home...
I remember back in the 70's when there was talk of a nationwide "farm" strike. A reporter on one of the Denver TV stations asking people at the grocery store what they thought about a "farm" strike. Most replied it wouldn't matter, they never bought anything from a farmer anyway..... and the education system has not got any better in the last 35years
What will make or break things is how the harvest goes south of the equator. If South America and Australia have good grain crops then the markets will come down a good bit and put things back on track.If they have a crop failure then oly ned is probably going to break loose....
Read a thing the other day in one of the industry publications that Mexico is the largest importer of US beef.... now that one shocked about everybody I know.

chefjeff · « **Reply #14 on:** August 27, 2012, 06:28:11 PM »

Bilmac,you had two grammatical errors in one sentence.Pot calls kettle black.Sorry,I couldn't resist.

Lloyd Smale · « **Reply #15 on:** August 28, 2012, 02:39:23 AM »

didnt know a literary degree was needed to post on greybeards. I tire of the grammer police worrying about spelling and punctuation and sentence struture on a ******* gun and hunting fourm. Id have to bet the knowlege ive shared with some of the guys on here is a bit more important to them then an english lesson!

Quote from: bilmac on August 27, 2012, 02:45:35 PM

Lloyd Did you go to the Dan Quayle school for spelling.

keith44 · « **Reply #16 on:** August 28, 2012, 06:09:46 AM »

spelling and grammar are not as important as having the facts correct.

Besides as poor as my spelling skills are I dare not try to correct anyone

KansasPaul · « **Reply #17 on:** August 28, 2012, 04:02:30 PM »

It's not only the corn crops that are hurting. A portion of my personal land is planted with Soy Beans and they certainly aren't looking too good either. While the corn has already dried, with very few ears, the beans are green - but there aren't any pods on the plants. We did get some rain over the past two days - about 2 inches - problem is that is the only rain we've seen since April. My pond is dry. The pasture is brown. The geese left early. The turkeys seem to be missing and the deer - well, they've taken to eating plants on my front porch. Normally I would try to chase off the deer from being close to the house (don't want the darn things to kill my small trees) - this year I'm thinking I need to keep them close so that I have a food source later in the season.

Lloyd Smale · « **Reply #18 on:** August 29, 2012, 05:36:28 AM »

i wish guys like you that really have to depend on there crops good luck this year. Its got to be tough.

Quote from: KansasPaul on August 28, 2012, 04:02:30 PM

It's not only the corn crops that are hurting. A portion of my personal land is planted with Soy Beans and they certainly aren't looking too good either. While the corn has already dried, with very few ears, the beans are green - but there aren't any pods on the plants. We did get some rain over the past two days - about 2 inches - problem is that is the only rain we've seen since April. My pond is dry. The pasture is brown. The geese left early. The turkeys seem to be missing and the deer - well, they've taken to eating plants on my front porch. Normally I would try to chase off the deer from being close to the house (don't want the darn things to kill my small trees) - this year I'm thinking I need to keep them close so that I have a food source later in the season.

KansasPaul · « **Reply #19 on:** August 29, 2012, 02:03:19 PM »

Lloyd, I appreciate your thoughts regarding the drought and crop. I am blessed as I don't have to rely on crops for income - but the farmer who plants on the adjacent land (and the portion of mine that is planted) sure does. I'm feel really bad for all of the farmers who are struggling - and I do have real concerns regarding the potential prices of food. When you consider the increasing prices of fuel, the increased prices of food and the current economy there are a lot of people who are getting stretched financially. I pray for those folks.

Paul

keith44 · « **Reply #20 on:** August 29, 2012, 02:32:09 PM »

Quote from: KansasPaul on August 29, 2012, 02:03:19 PM

... I pray for those folks.

Paul

As do I, early reports of the harvest are mixed, but mostly down. Farms that have averaged 180+ bu/acre are yielding 45 to 80 bushels per acre.

guzzijohn · « **Reply #21 on:** August 30, 2012, 03:23:27 AM »

Of course there will be some variance but a good average is that a farmer needs 80 bushel an acre of corn just to break even on input costs i you go by the local cash price this morning of $7.83 a bushel. It is a very expensive crop to produce.
GuzziJohn

hunt-m-up · « **Reply #22 on:** August 30, 2012, 12:56:41 PM »

I didn't say the corn and bean farmers are hurting, this was just an off year, they've been doing quite well in the past 5-10 years and very few don't have federal crop insurance. The past few years most have been looking for ways to spend their money to avoid the income taxes associated with the profits. This will have a greater impact on the implement and auto dealers and some of the other suppliers.
Ranchers and livestock farmers are impacted more by this and don't have the safety nets. They're getting a double whammy with the high feed costs and the lack of pasture/water. It will ultimately impact all of us.

hillbill · « **Reply #23 on:** December 23, 2012, 03:13:24 AM »

Quote from: hunt-m-up on August 30, 2012, 12:56:41 PM

I didn't say the corn and bean farmers are hurting, this was just an off year, they've been doing quite well in the past 5-10 years and very few don't have federal crop insurance. The past few years most have been looking for ways to spend their money to avoid the income taxes associated with the profits. This will have a greater impact on the implement and auto dealers and some of the other suppliers.
Ranchers and livestock farmers are impacted more by this and don't have the safety nets. They're getting a double whammy with the high feed costs and the lack of pasture/water. It will ultimately impact all of us.

a lot of people dont realize how the crop insurance works.if a crop farmer is insured and does every thing correctly, he will often make a bigger profit if his crop fails due to weather conditions.

at harvest time the crop is inspected and if it is deemed not worthy of harvest then you will be paid for your recorded bushel average or the average of the county you live in.

if it is harvested but at a greatly reduced bushels per acre, then you will be paid the difference.

so a farmer who has a failed corn crop and sells it standing for silage then gets paid for his recorded average bushels per acre, minus what he got for the silage. he does not have the expense of harvesting, handleing and hauling invested so he makes a much larger profit.

ive seen guys no till plant beans in poor ground, at the very tail end of the permittable planting season, knowing they would make very few bushels per acre. and then laugh all the way to the bank when the crop insurance check came in.

the goverment has no business subsdizing farming or any other private industry.

Ranch13 · « **Reply #24 on:** December 23, 2012, 04:32:03 AM »

I agree with the government has no business subsidizing any industry.
But you're assessment of the crop insurance is a good bit off the mark. There are some insurance plans that if you sell the crop for anything, or utitilize it for grazing, haying etc, you don't get any payment. It's true that if you go ahead and harvest the crop there may be a payment for the difference between the floor of the insurance and the county average, or prooven field averages.
But I have a problem with folks bashing programs like the crop insurance , when they have a belly full of food, and we're watching the government rebuild trillions of dollars worth of realestate lost in a storm, or paying folks to sit at home and play on the computer and dink around for 2 years instead of going out and getting a job.

hillbill · « **Reply #25 on:** December 23, 2012, 03:25:31 PM »

Quote from: Ranch13 on December 23, 2012, 04:32:03 AM

I agree with the government has no business subsidizing any industry.
But you're assessment of the crop insurance is a good bit off the mark. There are some insurance plans that if you sell the crop for anything, or utitilize it for grazing, haying etc, you don't get any payment. It's true that if you go ahead and harvest the crop there may be a payment for the difference between the floor of the insurance and the county average, or prooven field averages.
But I have a problem with folks bashing programs like the crop insurance , when they have a belly full of food, and we're watching the government rebuild trillions of dollars worth of realestate lost in a storm, or paying folks to sit at home and play on the computer and dink around for 2 years instead of going out and getting a job.

i was just explaining it as it was explained to me by a local corn farmer. if you sell your standing corn for silage, you are paid for your recorded average bushels per acre minus what the silage was worth. if your crop was below a cetain level and you harvested it, you were paid the difference of what you got and what your recorded average was.

i wasnt bashing the program so much as the ones who take unfair advantage of it. and believe me ive seen it.

i guess what irks me is that the row crop guys have the advantage of the program but the beef farmer has nothing. drouth is jus as hard on them as the row croppers.fair is fair?

however, i stand by my original statement that the gov has no business in either place.

geezerbiker · « **Reply #26 on:** December 23, 2012, 04:30:18 PM »

I wish I could send you guys some of our Oregon rain. We've had 2 seriously wet years in a row and it's looks like a 3rd is on it's way. I know the rain is good for the local farmers but I'm ready for a little drought.

Tony

Ranch13 · « **Reply #27 on:** December 24, 2012, 09:07:41 AM »

Hillbill there's alot that folks aren't directly involved don't see, but nobody makes out very well when they have to collect on the crop insurance, and I can tell you that it's dang near aggrevatiing to have to write the check to pay the crop insurance after the crop year is over and you didn't need to collect on it, especially when prices were the same per bushell as they were in the mid 1960's.
Beef folks for the most part don't want the government involved. We know what happened to the grain and dairy markets, and with the exception of a few that can't get the welfare money out of their noses, there's nothing the cow business needs except for maybe the occasional disaster assistance after severe blizzards causing large death loss or possibly drought and needing some help buying feed.

Lloyd Smale · « **Reply #28 on:** December 25, 2012, 12:17:15 AM »

Food production is the MOST IMPORTANT industy we have. Without it we starve and so does most of the world. You can live without a new GM car but you NEED food and most in our country sure cant grow there own. If the goverment is going to spend my money on helping anyone id sure rather it be the farmer then the an exec at gm or someone to lazy to go out and earn enough money to get by on. If they catch a break and make out on it once in a while so be it. Most work about twice as hard as the average 40 hour a week guy.

cjclemens · « **Reply #29 on:** January 09, 2013, 07:54:26 PM »

I know a lot of guys who still went out and shelled what corn they had, even if they did it at a net loss. Farming is a point of pride. If there's only 50 bushels out there, they'll get it in the bin, come hell or high water. Not the most practical, business wise, but it's good to know there's still some people out there like that.

I would also like to point out that most federal crop insurance programs are revenue based, not strictly on yield. Most insure crops at the 80% level or less, so insurance paying off better than a good year is highly unlikely. There have been a few mediocre years, where I thought a good hail storm would come in handy, but most of us would rather have a crop we can brag about in the end. Also, don't forget all of those years we paid our premiums and didn't make any claims. The system we have might not be perfect, but it keeps food cheap.

One other tidbit that might be interesting - a lot of grain had aflatoxin in it last year, which has gotten worse in storage. Many elevators are now stuck with excess inventory they can't move until they start getting clean grain next fall, so they can blend it out. I'm really not sure what impact this will have on prices, but it could get interesting...