Author Topic: Hurricane isaac two days before landfall - corrected (Read 696 times)

Conan The Librarian · « **on:** August 27, 2012, 01:27:00 AM »

http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/27/us/tropical-storm-isaac/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

I just read that evacuations are already ordered a full two days ahead of the arrival of what is currently a tropical storm, and is projected by noaa to become a category one hurricane. The expected landfall has trended westward and it is by no means clear where it will hit.

This us an overreaction. Probably because of the republican convention and next weeks democrat convention and because new orleans is a possible landfall, and this storm is confused with katrina.

Katrina was a much,much stronger storm. Evacuations should not be performed until a probable landfall is reasonably certain. When i lived in hurricane country we boarded up and or evacuated the day before landfall, and that was an effective approach.

briarpatch · « **Reply #1 on:** August 27, 2012, 01:32:10 AM »

I can tell you by experience Conan, In Florida you cannot evacuate 2 days before if everyone else tries to. The roads are blocked from north to south. If you wait 2 days before you will be somewhere on a road stuck.

Nuke41 · « **Reply #2 on:** August 27, 2012, 01:56:26 AM »

Evacuating the day before a hurricane is a recipe for disaster. Even 2 days ahead of time for high population density areas isn’t usually enough.

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #3 on:** August 27, 2012, 02:03:40 AM »

and it might be a cat 2 by some estimates .
Why is it that when people concern themselves with safety that others cut them down ? What does it prove to "ride out a storm" when you don't have to ? I have had the experince a few times . sit around with no power in the hot . Better to be out the way in AC watching it on TV and eating good food !

Conan The Librarian · « **Reply #4 on:** August 27, 2012, 02:21:04 AM »

Thanks for correcting me on the evacuation times. My knowledge is apparently out of date.

Dixie Dude · « **Reply #5 on:** August 27, 2012, 02:38:20 AM »

Katrina was a disaster because their governor and the mayor of New Orleans didn't react, didn't order evacuation, didn't call up the national guard, etc. This is done at STATE level, by the GOVERNOR. Bush was waiting for, which is the law, the governor to ASK for federal help. Both Alabama and Louisana have Republican governors, and they have ordered the evacuation of the coast to be on the safe side. I know that schools, universities, etc, have places for these people if they have no relatives or money to relocate temporarialy. I know, because I live about 3-4 hours north of the coast. Chruches locally got together and helped provide homes, hotels, etc, for the ones who were too poor to pay for what they needed.

On the flip side, Alabamas coast is more upscale, so most people can afford to move inland, or have family or even homes inland. When Alabama developed their coast, they didn't want it to be like Panama City where partying college and high school students go all the time. Panama City is zoneing out their cheap hotels now. I also know my son is in the guard and was called out last year right after the tornados struck, to keep security and to keep out gawkers and looters. We had no problems like New Orleans.

Even if the feds were called today, their response is always days later, when they get supplies, food, water, trailers, etc trucked in. Getting the people out of bad situations is first priority, which New Orleans didn't do. When the levee broke, they should have evacuated IMMEDIATELY and not waited three days. Starting first in the Below sea level areas, calling up the guard, and relocating them to safer higher ground. This is because the welfare mentality reigns and everyone is waiting for the feds to come bail them out. Most smart people got out as soon as the levee broke. Alabama didn't have that problem several years ago when Frederick hit Mobile hard. It flooded, but of course washed right back out because it is above sea level, but the Fed help didn't get there until weeks later. By then, the guard, charities, etc, had already taken care of the problem.

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #6 on:** August 27, 2012, 02:54:53 AM »

Dixie Dude you nailed it !

great post !

Conan The Librarian · « **Reply #7 on:** August 27, 2012, 03:48:46 AM »

This is very good. Keep the info coming. I think we can all benefit from a good factual discussion here.

Can you point me to the current best practices for an individual living near the coast? In other words, what are the best preparations to make?

I've been through five hurricanes, including a category 5, but things have changed. Back then we filled the bath tub with water but today we have bottled water, and there weren't as many people to evacuate. Also back then most houses had hurricane shutters, but I don't see many of those today when I travel near the Florida coast. Was it that shutters aren't effective, or is it that people just don't like them for some reason?

Houses were also built to account for expected hurricane related flooding, and were built with a crawlspace under an elevated living area.That worked very well. But today I don't see anything like that except the high beach houses with a carport under the living space. What do people whose houses are built on a concrete slab do to protect against flooding that surely will come in some of these areas?

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #8 on:** August 27, 2012, 04:07:12 AM »

Load up valuables and important papers firearms etc leave the area if possible. board up windows and doors . Make sure insurance is paid up and includes flood insurance .
If you must stay then bottled water , food that needs no prep or cooking , flash lights battries , radio crank type or batt. medicines , generator and fuel etc

Conan The Librarian · « **Reply #9 on:** August 27, 2012, 04:38:02 AM »

I can understand having insurance, but are you saying that a lot of people depend on making an insurance claim? This goes back to my question about the shutters and the concrete slabs. I remember when Andrew destroyed a neighborhood that I had once rented a house in. None of the houses there had shutters. All were on slabs. All were cheaply built (but not inexpensive). Is there a defeatist attitude that since a hurricane will destroy the place anyway, it may as well be cheap to replace?

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #10 on:** August 27, 2012, 04:42:57 AM »

Today houses are built cheap even expensive one in many cases. They are built it seems to repair easy or remodel easy. I have been in construction for 40 years and to this day have worked on one new house that had working storm shutters installed. It took the builder a few weeks to even find the hinges as it takes a speical hinge. I don't think much is built to last these days. Yes many folks depend on insurance if they lose a house.

Conan The Librarian · « **Reply #11 on:** August 27, 2012, 04:55:36 AM »

Shootall:

That is interesting. The neighborhood I lived in during the 60s was all in houses that were built in the 40s and 50s, and they took the realities of hurricanes into account. Very commendably, I might add. Very well made roofs. Elevated to prevent flooding. I don't see that now, although I think Andrew triggered some law changes related to quality of roof and window construction. Hopefully that's a good result.

I remember about 1972 a new house was built on what had been a vacant lot across the street, and it had a 4" slab. We were all scratching our heads wondering what they were going to do during the next hurricane. Surely it's been a total loss at least a couple of times since then. While I was growing up there we had one year with two hurricanes. And a few years in a row with at least one hurricane. I've been back to the old neighborhood, and almost all of the houses have had their hurricane shutters removed, even though there have been a couple of hurricanes over the years.

If I can ask, what part of the country are you in approximately, to be working on homes affected by hurricanes? I travel to the "redneck riviera" frequently, and lived in south FL for a long time.

Your observation about remodeling is a good one. I thought that myself when visiting friends. It seems they are way easier to work on than my northern house.

One interesting trend I've seen in the last several years has been the use of metal roofs. I'm not sure they are necessarily better or longer lasting, given sun weathering of the finishes. Some of those roofs I see can't be more than 10 years old, and they already are looking dull and in some cases corroded. Do you have an opinion of what good roof materials work best in a Florida environment. An elderly friend of mine needs a new roof and has been talking about getting metal, so any info you have will be much appreciated.

Dee · « **Reply #12 on:** August 27, 2012, 06:02:54 AM »

Living on a peninsula that is prone to hurricanes, or a coast that is prone to flooding AND hurricanes, doesn't seem in a common sense sort of way very smart. Because of that, I have little sympathy for those that choose these locations. So I spend very little time thinking about it.
I however, live in an area that is prone to tornadoes. I installed a cellar, and expect no help from the government, or anyone else for that matter. If one hits, I will try to get out back to my cellar. If I don't, it won't likely matter after that.

Dixie Dude · « **Reply #13 on:** August 27, 2012, 06:06:34 AM »

Sad problem about the tornado damage in Alabama was most people averaged only 65% insured of what their home and belongings cost to replace. You have to update your policy periodically because home prices increase, building materials increase. We keep ours up. After the tornados hit, my wife told her brother to check his policy to see if he has upgraded it. He has a home worth $300-400 thousand, but bought it about 25 years ago for $100,000. He only still had a $100,000 policy. He upgraded a few months before he was hit with a tornado that blew a huge tree across his house and basically cut it in two. It cost the insurace about $150,000 to do repairs, replace furniture, flooring, etc. So, check your insurance policies.

One of the reasons for huge damages today is people build right on the beaches. Back in the 50's they built on high ground, hurrican proof homes, with shutters. Today, they might put them on poles, but they can still get damaged unless they are built to cat 5 conditions. Highrise condos on the beach have piles driven deep to build on, and are wind resistant. The condos I have stayed at have an indoor pool and gym on the ground floors, so not much storm surge can damage stuff.

On the flip side. It is better to be overprepared than underprepared. It is better to get out early, than too late. Also, you can go down one of the stripps on the coast. Beach side homes sell for $1 million or more, bay side $500,000, on the same street. Beach side takes the blount of the surge but has the best view.

Conan The Librarian · « **Reply #14 on:** August 27, 2012, 06:19:08 AM »

Dee:

In peninsular Florida, aside from occasional hurricanes and some seasonally hot weather from mid-June through mid-September, the weather is normally benign and indeed pleasant. I live in tornado country now and there are far more hazards here than in Florida, at least related to weather. We've got tornadoes, blizzards, ice, ice storms, snow, high winds, straight line winds, severe thunder storms, extreme cold, extreme heat, black ice, flash flooding, and just general patterns of inclement weather that deteriorate the quality of life to a point where about seven months of the year are lost to bad weather. In terms of weather, the midwest is really garbage compared to Florida. I think that's why so many people leave here to move there, or Arizona or some other human-friendly non-God-forsaken-desolate-wasteland type of place.

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #15 on:** August 27, 2012, 06:45:11 AM »

some places require a rod every few feet around the out side to connect the roof to the footer . Here it's not required instead the put a teco clip with a nail in the plate and one in the truss

.

Dee · « **Reply #16 on:** August 27, 2012, 07:26:07 AM »

Quote from: Conan The Librarian on August 27, 2012, 06:19:08 AM

Dee:

In peninsular Florida, aside from occasional hurricanes and some seasonally hot weather from mid-June through mid-September, the weather is normally benign and indeed pleasant. I live in tornado country now and there are far more hazards here than in Florida, at least related to weather. We've got tornadoes, blizzards, ice, ice storms, snow, high winds, straight line winds, severe thunder storms, extreme cold, extreme heat, black ice, flash flooding, and just general patterns of inclement weather that deteriorate the quality of life to a point where about seven months of the year are lost to bad weather. In terms of weather, the midwest is really garbage compared to Florida. I think that's why so many people leave here to move there, or Arizona or some other human-friendly non-God-forsaken-desolate-wasteland type of place.

When the weather here gets bad, we stay indoors, or go to the cellar. It has trees, rivers, lakes, good roads, 4 seasons, ect. Hardly god forsaken. And we don't leave in bad weather, we just wait it out. The people on the coast and Florida head for the hills, and try to leave the area entirely. They evacuate the area. That says it all right there. Live where ya want, but don't send the tax payer the bill when it gets wiped out. Again.

kinslayer1965 · « **Reply #17 on:** August 27, 2012, 09:11:36 AM »

Dee,

Just out of curiosity would the same go for any of the number of floods that affected the midwest and Tennessee Valley area the last few years. Is it somehow less than smart for those people to live there? I might also add that I have seen the national guard called out a number of times for tornado disasters for a number of different states. Do you have an issue with any of those or is it just Florida with which you take issue? I might also add that I live in South Florida right smack on the coast within two miles of the beach and have never left the state because of a hurricane. I boarded up and made sure I had plenty of water and food and rode through the storms. When it was over I did what was neccesary in the way of repairs and helped the neighbors with theirs as they did with my repairs. I pay for insurance but just took care of stuff myself because of the deductible and rate increases should I make a claim but if I should incur damage that I had no choice but to use my insurance I damn sure wouldnt feel guilty about it considering I have been paying insurance for 24 years and never made a claim.

Just curious as to your issue with Florida or if you think no one should live within a couple hundred miles of the coast?

Dixie Dude · « **Reply #18 on:** August 27, 2012, 09:44:50 AM »

Problem with the coast, a lot of building went on in the '80's and 90's. Much without being hurricane proof. Most however, don't live there year round. They are rental houses and used by the owners at their leisure, rented the rest of the year. Permanent homes are usually further off the coast on higher ground. Had a friend who had a house in Florida in Jacksonville. His house was built in the 1950's. It was concrete block with a shallow roof pitch with a tar and gravel roof, no shingles. It had actual working shutters. People could lock themselves in and ride out a hurricane. It had either propane or natural gas for cooking, heating, and water heating, thus having a way to cook, take a bath. He had city water AND a well, in case the water got turned off for some reason. I know that after the recent rash of hurricanes in the gulf, most have rebuilt strong enough to take at least a Cat 3 hurricane. Steel straps on joists, studs, etc. Shutters that actually work, usually metal roofs now, or tar and gravel. They build them high enough to park cars under them in case of storm surge. Cars might get a drenching, but the house will still be there. A lot of damage is done by things flying around, not necessarily the water. So sealing up all loose things, tools, etc. Having signs that won't blow off or blow down, etc. Restrictions are getting better.

New Orleans was an exception, since a lot of it was built below sea level. Maybe they should bring in dirt and fill to get these areas above sea level and start over. I know only about 250,000 have returned to NO since Katrina, and they had 500,000 before. Most have moved to other areas such as Baton Rouge and Houston.

Dee · « **Reply #19 on:** August 27, 2012, 10:06:52 AM »

Quote from: kinslayer1965 on August 27, 2012, 09:11:36 AM

Dee,

Just out of curiosity would the same go for any of the number of floods that affected the midwest and Tennessee Valley area the last few years. Is it somehow less than smart for those people to live there? I might also add that I have seen the national guard called out a number of times for tornado disasters for a number of different states. Do you have an issue with any of those or is it just Florida with which you take issue? I might also add that I live in South Florida right smack on the coast within two miles of the beach and have never left the state because of a hurricane. I boarded up and made sure I had plenty of water and food and rode through the storms. When it was over I did what was neccesary in the way of repairs and helped the neighbors with theirs as they did with my repairs. I pay for insurance but just took care of stuff myself because of the deductible and rate increases should I make a claim but if I should incur damage that I had no choice but to use my insurance I damn sure wouldnt feel guilty about it considering I have been paying insurance for 24 years and never made a claim.

Just curious as to your issue with Florida or if you think no one should live within a couple hundred miles of the coast?

Actually I don't have an issue with Florida, or New Orleans for that matter. Both are prone to hurricanes and flooding. I don't have a problem with the N.G. coming in and helping with rescue work of folks that don't have enough sense to leave, or move where there won't be this type of events almost yearly. My reference to taxpayer money was going in and rebuilding homes and businesses with taxpayer money. You wanna live there? Fine. Buy good insurance, and don't send others the bill for your poor judgement in choice of living areas.

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #20 on:** August 27, 2012, 10:16:03 AM »

I live over 100 miles off the Atlantic coast and we have recived hurricane damage before in the area. Roofs have been taken off , flooding from rain etc. We are several hundred feet above sea level. Many homes in Va. Beach on the water are year round homes they get damage often . In Nags Head NC. the damage from storms is almost yearly. Some homes can not be repaired as the receeding shore has erroded to a point the Federal Govt. won't allow it. I stayed in one that had waves hitting the steps going down to the beach at high tide. But these homes are money makers and worth the risk in some folks minds . I have had to leave Nags Head several times because of storms as I had nothing to gain by staying . Someone mentioned concrete floors , we have family that lives in a flood zone near the coast . just about every storm its mop the water out , repair the drywall , new floor covering and replace wooden doors . They get that from normal storms . What can ya say ? I agree with Dee.

Tommyt · « **Reply #21 on:** August 27, 2012, 11:47:47 AM »

Weatherman missed it again
4 /5 days ago Isaac was hitting fl
Straight up through the state or either coast
Well look where it went and is going
They cost the people tons of cash with mis informed opinions

I get shaky when they say it won't effect us
They missed the last one ( debbie) so they over
Reacted on this one

Conan The Librarian · « **Reply #22 on:** August 27, 2012, 01:34:26 PM »

Considering the unpredictability of se complex storms, e predictions are excellent. The systems are complex. That storm, though predicted to it near louisiana, could change direction and hook back to hit floriday. This has happened within e past ten years or so.

briarpatch · « **Reply #23 on:** August 27, 2012, 03:25:01 PM »

I believe lowes and home depot make the predictions, they sell out of most stuff when a storm is sent anywhere on land. It dont matter which way it goes or where it ends up, it seems it will be predicted across a state somewhere.

Graybeard · « **Reply #24 on:** August 27, 2012, 05:54:04 PM »

Mark Prater on CBS42 in B'ham has stuck with his same forecast for about the past five days now. In spite of what the National Weather Service and National Hurricane tracking folks say he keeps saying nope that ain't where it's going.

He is convinced it will hit around about Mobile, AL maybe a wee bit east or west but not by much. He is expecting it to basically go up the MS/AL state line.

Tonight for the past three hours it has been tracking north not west further reinforcing his opinion of where it's headed.

Tommyt · « **Reply #25 on:** August 28, 2012, 01:49:25 AM »

Good Post GB
I like his tenacity
Seems he is right on with the land fall
Also it will be a cat 1 not a 3

Tommyt

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #26 on:** August 28, 2012, 01:58:57 AM »

Looks like it will hit NO now .

Conan The Librarian · « **Reply #27 on:** August 28, 2012, 02:04:37 AM »

Noaa.gov is where to look for predictions.

mcbammer · « **Reply #28 on:** August 28, 2012, 04:34:58 PM »

Whoa! Dodged a bullet there.