Is Iran working on a nuclear bomb? Leaked graph shows computer testing for weapon three times as powerful as Hiroshima blast
- A leaked diagram suggests that Iranian scientists have run computer simulations for a weapon
- Iran has previously denied any interest in such a weapon
- Meanwhile, satellite images from North Korea suggest that the nation could be about to test long range ballistic missiles
By
Steve NolanPUBLISHED: 03:05 EST, 28 November 2012 |
UPDATED: 05:05 EST, 28 November 2012
Deadly: A leaked diagram suggests that Iranian scientists have carried out computer tests for a nuclear weapon three times as powerful as that which destroyed Hiroshima, pictured Scientists in Iran could be producing a nuclear weapon three times as powerful as that which destroyed Hiroshima during the Second World War, according to a leaked diagram.
The diagram, which suggests that experts have run computer simulations for the weapon, was released by an unnamed country which is opposed to Iran's atomic programme and wishes to boost its view that it should be brought to a halt before a weapon can be produced.
The graph - which shows a bell curve with variables of time, power and energy - shows that the weapon would have a force of around 50 kilotons two microseconds after detonation.
In comparison, the bomb that the United States dropped on the Japenese city of Hiroshima which killed around 140,000 people in 1945 had a force of about 15 kilotons.
Modern nuclear weapons have yields hundreds of times higher than that.
The International Atomic Energy Agency the Vienna-based U.N. nuclear watchdog reported last year that it had obtained diagrams indicating that Iran was calculating the 'nuclear explosive yield' of potential weapons but did not give details of what the diagrams showed.
The diagram, obtained by news agency Associated Press, had the number five as part of its title, suggesting that it is one of a series.
David Albright, whose Institute for Science and International Security is used by the U.S. government as a go-to source on Iran's nuclear program, said the diagram looks genuine but seems to be designed more 'to understand the process' than as part of a blueprint for an actual weapon in the making.
He added that the power of the weapon is too big, noting that North Korea's first tests of a nuclear device were only a few kilotons. Because the graph appears to be only one in a series, others might show lower yields, closer to what a test explosion might produce, he said.
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The senior diplomat said the diagram was part of a series of Iranian computer-generated models provided to the IAEA by the intelligence services of member nations for use in its investigations into suspicions that Iran is trying to produce a nuclear weapon.
Iran denies any interest in such a weapon and has accused the United States and Israel of fabricating evidence that suggests it is trying to build a bomb.
Computer tests: The undated diagram shows a force more than three times greater than the atomic bomb which devastated the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945 Asked about the project, Iran's chief IAEA delegate, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said he had not heard of it. IAEA spokeswoman Gill Tudor said the agency had no comment.
Iran has refused to halt uranium enrichment, despite offers of reactor fuel from abroad, saying it is producing nuclear fuel for civilian uses. It has refused for years to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear agency's efforts to investigate its program.
Iran's critics fear it could use the enriched uranium for military purposes. Such concerns grew this month when the IAEA said Iran is poised to double its output of higher-enriched uranium at its fortified underground facility a development that could put Tehran within months of being able to make the core of a nuclear warhead.
In reporting on the existence of the diagrams last year, the IAEA said it had obtained them from two member nations that it did not identify. Other diplomats have said that Israel and the United States the countries most concerned about Iran's nuclear program have supplied the bulk of intelligence being used by the IAEA in its investigation.
'The application of such studies to anything other than a nuclear explosive is unclear to the agency,' the IAEA said at the time.
Devastation: Some 140,000 people died when the US dropped an atom bomb on Hiroshima in 1945 The models were allegedly created in 2008 and 2009 well after 2003, the year that the United States said Tehran had suspended such work in any meaningful way. That date has been questioned by Britain, France, Germany and Israel, and the IAEA now believes that while Iran shut down some of its work back then other tests and experiments continue today.
With both the IAEA probe and international attempts to engage Iran stalled, there are fears that Israel may opt to strike at Tehran's nuclear program. The Jewish state insists it will not tolerate an Iran armed with nuclear arms.
An intelligence summary provided with the drawing linked it to other alleged nuclear weapons work significant because it would indicate that Iran is working not on isolated experiments, but rather on a single program aimed at mastering all aspects of nuclear arms development.
Nuclear: Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad watches from a control room as nuclear fuel rods are loaded into a research reactor in Tehran earlier this year. The country says it is producing nuclear energy for civilian use The IAEA suspects that Iran has conducted live tests of conventional explosives that could be used to detonate a nuclear weapon at Parchin, a sprawling military base southeast of Tehran. An intelligence summary said data gained from those tests fed the model plotted in the diagram.
Iran has repeatedly turned down IAEA requests to visit the site, which the agency fears is undergoing a major cleanup meant to eliminate any traces of such experiments.
Meanwhile, a new satellite picture shows that activity at a missile launch site in North Korea has stepped up a gear, suggesting that long range ballistic missiles could be tested in the next few weeks.
The image, which shows the Sohae Satellite Launch Station, was released by satellite operator DigitalGlobe Inc days after Japanese newspaper the Asahi Shimbun claimed that US intelligence were aware of moves seen as preparation by North Korea to launch a long range missile as early as this month.
It shows more tents, people, equipment and trucks at the site, similar to when preparations were being made for a failed rocket launch back in April.
Ready to launch: A satellite image shows increased activity at a missile launch site in North Korea, suggesting that the country will test long range ballistic missiles in the coming weeks A Pentagon spokeswoman declined to comment on the reported satellite images, but said the Defense Department's position on North Korea's missile development efforts had not changed.
She urged North Korea to comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions that 'require Pyongyang to suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program in a complete, verifiable, and irreversible manner, and re-establish its moratorium on missile launching.'
The country, which carried out nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 and is under heavy U.N. sanctions for its atomic weapons program, has tried for years to influence major events in South Korea by waging propaganda or armed attacks.
North and South Korea have been technically at war since their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, and regional powers have for years been trying to rein in the North's nuclear program.
North Korea is believed to be developing a long-range ballistic missile with a range of up to 4,200 miles aimed at hitting the continental United States but the last two rocket test launches failed.
In April, under its new leader Kim Jong-un, North Korea launched a rocket that flew just a few minutes covering a little over 60 miles before crashing into the sea between South Korea and China.
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