Anew Russian invasion of Ukraine appears imminent, possibly within “several days,” with signs pointing toward Moscow using a false pretext to send in troops amid alleged shelling in a contested region, President Joe Biden and some of his top aides said Thursday.
In a surprise appearance at the United Nations, Secretary of State Antony Blinken laid out the potential, “theatrical” steps American officials expect the Kremlin to take.
The U.S. officials’ warnings were the most dire to date in a conflict that has reached a fever pitch since Russian leader Vladimir Putin began amassing troops along the border with Ukraine last fall. Reports earlier this week from Russia indicated Putin may be pulling some troops back, but U.S. officials said Wednesday and Thursday that they believe Moscow has increased its troop presence to some 150,000 along the Ukrainian border with 7,000 new troops arriving in recent days.
Speaking of potential incursion, Biden on Thursday said his “sense is that it will happen within the next several days.” Other U.S. officials’ comments suggested a Russian attack could take place even sooner. Russia’s own announcements hinted that Putin was not happy with the direction of diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis, even as Moscow blamed Ukraine and the West for provocations and ignoring its security concerns.
The situation was so tense that American national security officials held multiple meetings overnight and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield asked Blinken to speak at a U.N. Security Council meeting on Thursday on his way to the Munich Security Conference.
“The evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion. This is a crucial moment,” Thomas-Greenfield told reporters Thursday morning.
Blinken went step-by-step to predict how Moscow would approach the situation, all part of an ongoing effort by the Biden administration to counter Russia’s disinformation and propaganda in as close to real time as possible.
First, Blinken said, Russia would come up with a pretext, possibly a “violent event” or an “outrageous accusation.”
“Second, in response to this manufactured provocation, the highest levels of the Russian government may theatrically convene emergency meetings to address the so-called crisis the government will introduce proclamations declaring that Russia must respond to defend citizens or ethnic Russians in Ukraine,” he said.
Once the attack starts, he added, “Russian missiles and bombs drop across Ukraine. Communications will be jammed. Cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions. After that, Russian tanks and soldiers advance on key targets that have been mapped out in detailed plans. We believe these targets include Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.”
Russia is the president of the Security Council this month, and it requested the meeting to discuss the implementation of the Minsk accords — agreements reached in the wake of Russia’s earlier invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Russia and Ukraine have not seen eye-to-eye on the details of the accords and have not fully implemented them.
A senior Biden administration official said Russia’s decision to call the U.N. meeting appeared “part of an attempt to establish a pretext for a potential invasion, building upon the disinformation and incendiary statements we’ve seen over recent weeks.”
“They have not moved any of their troops out. They have moved more troops in,” Biden said as he departed the White House on Thursday for an unrelated trip to Cleveland. “Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine.”
Adding to tensions were accusations by both Russia and Ukraine against the other of intensive shelling across the line that separates Ukrainian forces from Russia-backed separatists in Ukraine’s east. That separatist conflict was stoked by Russia beginning in 2014, when it invaded and annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea.
Ukraine accused Russia of shelling a kindergarten, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy labeled a “big provocation.”
Senior Biden administration officials earlier this week laid out other potential pretexts the Kremlin may use to justify a new invasion.
“We have already seen an increase in false claims by the Russians in the past few days, including reports of an unmarked grave of civilians allegedly killed by the Ukrainian armed forces, statements that the U.S. and Ukraine are developing biological or chemical weapons, and that the West is funneling in guerrillas to kill locals,” one official said during a Wednesday briefing. “Each of these allegations is categorically false, and we should expect more false reports from Russian state media over the coming days.”
There also have been cyberattacks in recent days on Ukrainian government bodies, but American officials have not yet been willing to attribute those to Russia.
Russia, meanwhile, announced that it had given written responses to the United States as part of ongoing diplomacy aimed at dealing with what Moscow says are its security concerns. Putin has for weeks sought guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, and that the military alliance will limit its presence near Russia. The Kremlin even drafted treaty language it has pushed the United States and its allies to endorse.
U.S. and NATO officials have been unwilling to entertain Moscow’s key demands, saying Russia cannot dictate what Ukraine or NATO do. But U.S. officials have said they are willing to discuss with Russia issues like military exercises, where missiles are based and other security matters.
According to Russian media, much of which is state-controlled, the written response from Moscow notes that “the American side did not give a constructive response to the basic elements of the draft treaty prepared by the Russian side.”
According to the Kommersant news outlet, Russia further declared that “in the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees to ensure our security from the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including by implementing measures of a military-technical nature.”
A senior State Department official confirmed that the Russian government delivered the document to U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan on Thursday, but the official did not go into further details.
A spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in Moscow also confirmed that Russia had expelled the No. 2 official at the embassy, Bart Gorman, who departed a few days ago.
“Gorman was the second-most senior official at U.S. Embassy Moscow after the ambassador and a key member of the embassy’s senior leadership team,” the spokesperson said. “Russia’s [deputy chief of mission] recently departed in a regular diplomatic rotation at the end of his tour in January.”
Both Russia and the U.S. have used various maneuvers to limit one another's diplomatic presence on their respective home soil over the past several months. The U.S. embassy spokesperson suggested that will continue.
“Russia’s action against our [deputy chief of mission] was unprovoked and we consider this an escalatory step and are considering our response,” the spokesperson said. “[Deputy Chief of Mission] Gorman’s tour had not ended; he had a valid visa, and he had been in Russia less than three years.”
Joseph Gedeon contributed to this report.
