If they're doing a major replacement (rather than just a few pieces for special ops types), my guess is it'll be a "standard" procurement, with lots of MIL-SPECs ... one of which might be that the gun be double action. Plus they'll run all the competitors through various torture tests. The SIG 226 nearly won the last one (the one Baretta won); it came down to full-contract life-cycle cost, including spare parts, etc. Whoever it is (Colt, SIG, Baretta, SA, Glock, etc.), they'll presumably set up for US manufacture, even if it's a "foreign" company.