There are times that one cannot predict with any accuracy when to bug out. For instance, an earthquake, tornado, tidal wave, nuclear disaster, terrorism, and a host of others. The time to prepare for short term survival is always. Keep a supply of water and food on hand, medical and medicine, staples, FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES, defense weapons, and clothing suitable for the climate, not weather. 2 years ago, a tsunami warning was issued from the coast of Alaska all the way to Southern California from the under sea quake near the Kurile Islands sometime during winter. My wife and I were at home when we heard the warning. There was a severe storm at the time, blowing snow, and 6' of heavy wet snow behind the house. There was no way we were going to survive the ocean waves, walk the fields to high ground behind the house with enough survival equipment, or anything else. We knew the wave was coming, just not if it was going to be dangerous. Then I thought, wait a minute. This property with an old cabin on ground piling survived the tidal wave from Alaska's 1964 earthquake, which devasted most all the buildings and native villiages in Prince William Sound including the entire town of Valdez. If it survived this tidal wave then it probably would survive a wave from the Kuril Islands. I wasn't worried about surviving now, but the total destruction of my home site. Even then we could salvage material, tools, food, and a host of other things we could not possible carry through the snow, so in actuality had our survival nest egg. We could have survived the winter or until I got a boat repaired for travel during calmer weather. The wave actually measured about 6" at Adak and less than 2" here, so there was not any damage, but there could have been. At least now I think we could have survived the 1964 tidal wave here. That doesn't do anything for terrorism or nuclear fallout though. But we can't control all aspects of our life and take our chances accordiingly. At least I'm living a good life and not bored.